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There are many problems cryptocurrencies solve. You can make a list just by noting where actual turnover in the real-world crypto economies goes in practice:

* How do I receive payment for illegal goods I am selling without going through traditional regulated entities that want to attach my real-world identity to the payment in their records?

* How do I provide gambling services to customers in jurisdictions that prohibit this?

* How do I profit from people willing to put their money into transparent pyramid schemes or straight-up scams, without risk of recourse from traditional police / legal systems?

* How do I launder money?

* How do I skim from the shadow economy i.e. in entities engaged in all of the above activities, without committing an obvious crime myself?

Legal oversight can be an unwanted transaction overhead that introduces risk, and laws restrict freedom.

Ask instead what problems decentralised currency is supposed to solve that are legal and moral to solve and cannot be solved more cheaply through traditional systems involving a regulated third party subject to the rule of law.




Lets list them by assuming that I want to buy a legal product or service:

* When it is cultural and social taboo.

* When the act can be pulled out of context.

* When it can become a false positive for correlation in police investigation.

* When it can be abused in order to influence and apply pressure, by example advertisers, politics or different sides in a court.

* When it can harm a third party, like a dependent.

* when it can give unfair market power to those who know more about you than competitor with better product or service.

All of those have some grey zones and illegal areas but for most it is up to the consumer to be aware. So long the legal system demand that the individual take responsibility for personal information, and the legal investigation system has false positives, and the court and political voting system depend on asymmetrical information, and influences like advertisement is legal, and we have cultural and social taboos for legal behavior, well then we have a legal and moral problem that a decentralized currency could help to solve.


While there is some truth in your argument, you are very clearly only focusing on one-side.

The problems that crypto-currencies attempt to solve are more to do with monetary policy. E.g. - you can't have things like quantitative easing / manufactured inflation if your money supply is dictated by a tightly controlled algorithm.

Whether or not that is a desirable overall policy is a wholly separate argument.


>The problems that crypto-currencies attempt to solve are more to do with monetary policy. E.g. - you can't have things like quantitative easing / manufactured inflation if your money supply is dictated by a tightly controlled algorithm.

If that's what you want... the extralegal aspect of cryptocurrencies is a big problem. I still have a few hundred bucks tied up in e-gold, which was perfectly setup to do what you want, and backed by real gold, but as a side feature was also convenient for black market transactions.


You didnt mention that governments print money. Lots of money.

Thats my number 1.


You do realise that Bitcoin is experiencing much more inflation in its supply than the USD or the EUR, don't you?


The bitcoin supply is increasing, at high, but shrinking rates, however its purchasing power is still increasing despite that inflation.

This suggests that demand for bitcoin is exceeding the supply rate.

If the demand continues, and the supply rate of bitcoin will be almost exhausted in a couple of decades, then the value of bitcoin will likely rise in response.

This is of course, ignoring that volume of bitcoin in circulation is actually shrinking with time[1], because people are hodling rather than trading it. Evidence that Gresham's Law is playing out as usual.

[1]: Age of bitcoin UTXOs is increasing over time. https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*JopnHwBLMAOn-i2v4...


> You do realise that Bitcoin is experiencing much more inflation in its supply than the USD or the EUR, don't you?

So, I argue that it seems likely this would happen; someone will figure out how to fractional reserve the stuff, the gain is too great. But do you have evidence that it did happen? what was the mechanism?


> someone will figure out how to fractional reserve the stuff, the gain is too great. But do you have evidence that it did happen? what was the mechanism?

If the transaction is not on the blockchain or is not directly tied to a blockchain transaction (like with LN/payment channels), you MUST assume there's a fractional reserve going on, as you have no way of confirming otherwise.

If it is tied to the blockchain, it can't be a fractional reserve.


Fractional reserve is not about transactions, but about backing for the underlying assets these transactions are "moving".

LN/payment channels are payment methods (think checks or credit cards), while traditional "cryptocurrencies" are systems or records or ledgers (think banks).

The assets are fiat cash and cash-equivalents (electricity, hashing power) inflows. I.e. when somebody mines or buys Bitcoin - money flows into the system, when somebody sells Bitcoin - money flows out of the system. So most cryptoassets today are fractional reserve.


I agree completely.

But my impression was that actual blockchain transactions were cumbersome and slow to verify, and that most people, especially most investors, have some other party holding their coins or otherwise invest indirectly.


BTC supply is capped at 21,000,000

The US government has 20,000,000,000,000 in debt. Today USD might be better, at some point debt will need to be paid back.


that's not how debt works on a national level.... it's not like personal debt at all


I know this is true when the debt is issued by the currency issuer & denominated in that same currency, such as in the case of the United States.

Is that also true in the case of say, Italy's debt denominated in Euros or Illinois state debt denominated in USD? I have been meaning to read Steve Keen's work on this


when Italy was on the lira yes, with the Euro no. Look at how the Greek crisis unfolded.


the 20T will have to be paid back. Unlike personal debt the fed can just print the money. There is currently around 6T in existing money supply (though I havent checked recently).

The question is how will the debt translate to increased money supply over time (inflation).


> Unlike personal debt the fed can just print the money.

A part of why the Fed (and the same is generally true of independent central banks generally) exists (and why the Fed system is comprised of large private banks) is to provide a check (and, more important, confidence among lenders) against Congress simply monetizing the debt by separating the locus of decision making for monetary policy from that for fiscal policy.


Historically that often doesn't really happen with such debts. Instead the debt falls a percentage of GDP due to GDP growing, at least in nominal terms.


It is happening, though. Especially now with tax cuts and increased spending.


Inflationary economies can survive in the long term, whereas the survivability of deflationary economies is not so clear.


>Inflationary economies can survive in the long term

Is this true? I only know western history, but between Rome and every successor state, inflation is a short term fix and usually leads to the end of a government and currency(over centuries)


Why's that a bad thing?


Because a dollar is not always worth a dollar. A bitcoin is always worth a bitcoin.

The dollar doesn't have a "reference rate," as it is subject to arbitrary inflation. The dollar has had several reference rates in the past, based on weight in silver, and later, gold. The purchasing power of a dollar has declined rapidly since these reference rates were abandoned.

A bitcoin has a reference rate which is eventually 1 in 21M. There is an initial inflationary period until it reaches that, but we're already 1 in ~18M, so most of the inflation has already occurred. We will be very close to the 21M in another 13 years, and after that we will only be adding small fractions.

If you had a dollar in 1918, it would be worth only a small fraction of a dollar today. 1/16 or 1/40, depending on what estimations you use.

If past performance is anything to go off, then a dollar in 2118 will be worth 1/16th of a dollar today. If you hold onto 16 dollars today, they will have the purchasing power of 1 dollar in 2118.

On the other hand, if you hold 16 bitcoin today, you have 16 of 18M of the bitcoin supply. In 2118, you will have 16 of the ~21M total supply.

In the same 100 years, bitcoin will inflate by most 16%. The dollar will inflate by 160% in the same period, if the past century is anything to go off (it isn't, this century will be much much worse).

Or put it in to shorter timeframe. If inflation is approximately linear over the 100 years, then every 6 1/4 years, your bitcoin will lose 1% of its purchasing power. In the same timescale, your dollar will lose 10%.

Which of these are you going to save money with?

The above is based on the assumption that demand for bitcoin will not increase in relation to demand for the dollar. Given Gresham's Law, this is highly unlikely.


That only pins the value of a bitcoin in relation to other bitcoins - it does nothing to pin the value of a bitcoin to real-world goods. And the only practical value of a bitcoin, in the long run, is its value in relation to real-world goods.

It's also worth remembering that once the inflation of bitcoin stops at the 21m mark, it can only ever deflate from there as wallets (and their associated coins) are lost. As bad as inflation is, a deflating currency is not any better.

Of course, the proposed solution to bitcoin deflation was (at least at one point) just to inflate the bitcoin currency by effectively moving the decimal point to the right (one bitcoin becomes 10, etc).


> That only pins the value of a bitcoin in relation to other bitcoins - it does nothing to pin the value of a bitcoin to real-world goods.

This is true, but it's also true for dollars. No goods are inherently pinned to a dollar value. Goods are priced in dollars with the expectation that the seller will earn a profit if sold at a given rate.

But if that dollar loses its purchasing power, mostly due to it being inflated by central banks, then the price of goods in dollars will have to increase for the seller to earn the same profit. It is not sufficient for the seller to just increase their goods at the rate of inflation either, because the cost of all their expenditures increases too. To earn the same profit after inflation, they need to increase their revenue more than the rate of inflation. This has a ripple effect over all industries.

On the other hand, if the non-inflationary currency is not losing its purchasing power over the same periods, then merchants will prefer to obtain the non-inflationary currency over the inflationary one. If they obtain both, they will use the inflationary currency first to purchase new materials, and only dig in to the non-inflationary currency as and when they run out of the inflationary currency.

If eventually, businesses decide to price their goods in bitcoin, rather than the dollar amount of bitcoin at the current market exchange rate, then they might be able to expect that they will not need to keep raising prices annually for inflation, but might instead be able to lower them, or keep them at the same rate and increase their profits for as long as a cheaper competitor does not appear. However, if these goods are priced both in bitcoin and USD, then while the bitcoin value remains the same, the dollar value must continue to increase for inflation.

Since bitcoin also enables a certain level of transactional privacy too, it will also be used for grey and black market transactions, which make up 10-20% of economies. Most people interact either directly or indirectly with these markets for saving money or generating additional profit. Cash has traditionally been used in these cases, but as the effort of states to make money digital, under mass warrantless surveillance increases, the practicality of using cash decreases. Bitcoin is well suited to fill the gap being created.

> As bad as inflation is, a deflating currency is not any better.

I often hear strawmen arguments against deflation, but never any real sources or evidence of how terrible it supposedly is. I'm led to believe that people won't spend money in a deflationary economy, but peoples need to eat and drink suggests otherwise.

An example of deflation in action is in Moore's Law. If I buy a computer now, it will be half as powerful in 1.5 years. Why would I not just wait 2 years and buy a computer then? People continue to buy new machines all the time, and they don't wait 2 years for the next iteration, because they know that in another 2 years, that one is out of date. People will spend for as long as they perceive the transaction is worthwhile now for the labour effort they put in to acquire that amount in currency. In a deflationary economy, people simply make better decisions, because they're not simply comparing the amount to what they earned recently, but in any significant transaction they need to weigh the importance of the transaction against their future self.

I think the real complaints about deflation are from socialist types who worry that the rich will get richer. Too bad for them, they can't prevent this any longer. The state no longer has the capacity to steal people's bitcoin if they take the right measures to secure their keys. The rich might get richer, but anyone can get better off if they shift to a low time-preference mindset, instead of being stuck in the debt spirals that are encouraged by high time-preference economies.

> Of course, the proposed solution to bitcoin deflation was (at least at one point) just to inflate the bitcoin currency by effectively moving the decimal point to the right (one bitcoin becomes 10, etc).

The "bitcoin" denomination is really just cosmetic anyway. All of the values in the bitcoin protocol are measured in satoshis, as a 64-bit integer. It is not trivial to change this denomination as it would affect the entire UTXO set of transactions. On the other hand, moving the decimal place for the cosmetic appearance of satoshis could be trivial, but it doesn't change much.


Dollars have one major advantages over bitcoins (in the US): They are legal tender for paying all debts, private and public. Bitcoin requires the merchant to accept bitcoin - something they are not, and will never, be required to do.

Bitcoin also has a cost associated with it that the dollar does not - a transaction processing cost (yes, there are costs for the handling of money, but it's both significantly less than bitcoin transaction costs, and is relatively constant).

WRT deflation, the biggest problem (that I'm aware of) is that it disincentivizes spending, something generally considered to be a bad thing for the economy. Sure, people may buy the necessities with a currency that is deflationary, but they're disincentivized by the currency itself to do anything more than that.

In other words, why would anyone (not just the rich) spend more than the bare minimum when not spending means their net value increases?

Any form of investment that can't accrete value faster than the currency itself becomes a wasteful product. Stocks, bonds, houses, cars, bicycles, startups, family businesses, education - all have the potential of losing all their value when compared to hording currency.



> Dollars have one major advantages over bitcoins (in the US): They are legal tender for paying all debts, private and public.

This is true, but the practice is such because the government has previously granted a monopoly on the issuance of money to certain private entities which have little accountability to anyone. Previously, it was not possible to compete with this monopoly, because the state enforced it through the threat or use of violence.

The money issuers now have competition, and the government has no way of "shutting down" the competition due to the way it was designed. Merchants now have alternative options in terms of what currency they're willing to accept and how they can save money, rather than simply spending.

If it happens that the new competition is more desirable to possess than the previous money (due to lack of inflation, meaning it is more likely to retain its purchasing power in the long term), then people will save in bitcoin, and spend in dollars.

The result is that a large amount of wealth will essentially "disappear" from circulation which the state thugs can levy taxes on via use of violence. Economies will take a hit as a result, but the people saving in bitcoin won't be impacted as heavily as those who don't. In fact, it could have the effect where each hit taken by a national economy drives more people to bitcoin, pushing up the demand and value, making those who were smart enough to accumulate it earlier even more wealthy than before the economy took the hit.

As long as there are liquid enough markets (whether those are AML/KYC compliant, or black-market) for people to trade some of their bitcoin back into USD for the purpose of paying taxes, then the dollar is not going to retain its advantage.

> Bitcoin also has a cost associated with it that the dollar does not - a transaction processing cost (yes, there are costs for the handling of money, but it's both significantly less than bitcoin transaction costs, and is relatively constant).

Transaction fees in bitcoin are not consistently high. Some fees were high last year due to the sudden increase in speculation, poor fee estimation in software, and services which were not making efficient use of block-space, at their own cost, or the cost of their clients. Much of this has improved, although we have a long way to go.

The main developments are in the more scalable technologies pinned to bitcoin, which aren't competing entirely for a share of the limited block space. Fees on the lightning network, for example, have a base rate in satoshis (per transaction), and a proportional fee of 1 millionth the value transacted. The fees total fractions of cents. Bitcoin transaction fees are only paid in the creation and destruction of payment channels, which may be very infrequent.

> WRT deflation, the biggest problem (that I'm aware of) is that it disincentivizes spending, something generally considered to be a bad thing for the economy. Sure, people may buy the necessities with a currency that is deflationary, but they're disincentivized by the currency itself to do anything more than that.

The reason that reduced spending is seen as a "problem," is because governments can't cover the interest on their debts unless people are actively spending and paying taxes on those transactions. Governments are not really paying their debts off - they're paying off the interest, and kicking the can down the road even further. The debt will never actually be paid. It is impossible to pay off. At some point, who knows when, your government is going to default. This is inevitable.

> In other words, why would anyone (not just the rich) spend more than the bare minimum when not spending means their net value increases?

People spend because they want something, and they're willing to let go of something else which they value in exchange. For some that might be the bare minimum. For others, they might want to continue wealth-signalling with expensive cars and watches.

Think about that one. The value of that car depreciates by about 20% immediately upon purchase, and then by a further X% every year. It has a lifetime of around 10-15 years before it is basically worth the value of its scrap metal. Yet people are still buying cars frequently. Could it be that people still spend money on products and services which provide them value now, and not just save everything like the deflationary scaremongers suggest?

> Any form of investment that can't accrete value faster than the currency itself becomes a wasteful product. Stocks, bonds, houses, cars, bicycles, startups, family businesses, education - all have the potential of losing all their value when compared to hording currency.

Some of the examples you pick, like cars, bicycles, houses (sometimes), actually depreciate in value over time, which throws away the argument that people won't spend money if they don't see a monetary ROI.

Consider renting a home as another prime example. People will continue to put money into an "investment" which will eventually net them zero return when they move home or get evicted. Yet people still rent.

Many "investments" are simply full of rent-seekers who do not provide any real value to society. If people stop throwing money at these, it won't be missed.

Education is an example of something we can't even measure the ROI on. We just know from observation that the better educated a society is, the higher its productive capacity appears to be a few generations down the line. We also know that some academies do a better job than others, and that some people are willing to pay more to have their children educated at those academies, with no guarantee that they will see a ROI. (The child could turn out rebellious, or just not smart anyway). People still invest in education despite there being no obvious profit motive - their child's future is more important than the value of the money.

The real difference in investment when it comes to deflation is that people simply make better decisions. The incentive is skewed more towards saving than spending, but this is not absolute. People will spend, but think twice about buying that useless gadget that they didn't really need, but they bought on impulse because they had $1000 burning a hole in their pocket.

The argument against deflation is essentially the same as saying "people won't save money if there is inflation," because money is depreciating over time. The incentive is towards spending, but people still save money. The only time they don't save is during hyperinflation, when the value of the money depreciates more rapidly than they earn and spend it. The reverse is true for a deflationary economy. As long as deflation is low, people will still spend, but with more preference to save. It is only if hyperdeflation occurs that people will "hodl" and only spend the bare minimum to survive. Hyperdeflation will occur as bitcoin gains adoption, but it is not the eventual state. Once peak adoption has occurred, the rate of deflation will begin to decrease, with the eventual state that it will be relatively stable. In the even longer term, bitcoin could become inflationary by accident, if the human population as a whole begins to decrease rather than increase - because demand will be reduced.


You’ve explained why dollars are inflationary, which I already knew. You haven’t, however, explained why an inflationary currency is bad.

> Which of these are you going to save money with?

Neither. Most of my savings is in productive assets (i.e. stocks). Some is in gold.


The inflationary money is bad in comparison to the non-inflationary money, because the inflationary money sees people's purchasing power lose value from the labour they underwent to acquire the currency, over short terms (a few years). The non-inflationary money however, sees people's purchasing power remain the same as their productive effort to acquire it, if not, increased from when they obtained it due to deflation.

When two forms of money exist and one is better than the other, people will save the better money and spend the worse money.

People do save with currency, usually in limited amounts or limited times, in large part due to its inflationary nature. Inflation forces a high time-preference on labour because the non-spender loses value over time. Putting money into stocks is not the same as saving, but it is investment, with varying degrees of risk. None are guaranteed to even preserve value, let alone profit. At present, Bitcoin behaves like a stock because its value wrt USD is so volatile.

Gold is only valuable because of it's perceived scarcity and historical use as a store of value. It is not priced so highly due to its intrinsic properties as a metal (it is neither that useful nor that scarce), unlike some other commodity metals.

Bitcoin is the digital equivalent of gold. Its value is based on scarcity and perception of value due to the ability to find someone who will trade it at an expected market rate for other currencies or for goods.


So far your argument seems to be:

(1) Saving is not the same thing as investment.

(2) Inflationary currencies encourage investment whereas non-inflationary ones encourage saving.

(3) It is better to encourage saving than to encourage spending.

(4) Bitcoin is a better non-inflationary currency than gold.

1 and 2 -- sure, agreed.

3 -- This is the most important part of your argument yet you have not explicitly stated it, nor argued in favor of it, anywhere. It is unclear to me why it's good policy not to encourage investment.

4 -- You are right that neither bitcoin nor gold has intrinsic value (not counting the value that gold would naturally have as an industrial material). Both are only valuable because other people perceive them as value.

However, people have perceived gold as valuable for thousand s of years. The fact that gold has value is deeply rooted in human culture and therefore not likely to change in our lifetime.

None of that is true for bitcoin.

So, what are we left with? The only advantage of bitcoin that I can discern in all of this is that it can be transferred via the internet in a censorship-resistant way. I do not think that advantage is important enough for most people to outweigh the disadvantages.


I would modify (3) to say: It is better to encourage saving than to encourage spending on useless shit that won't last.

The problem with today's "investment" is that it is almost entirely on shit that won't last, and is for the purpose of short-term monetary gain than for investment into infrastructure which will last generations. An "investment" today is concerned with the next quarter, 6-months or perhaps even a year. Most companies do not concern themselves with anything longer than 3 years, or anything to do with the well-being of the societies in which they operate. Most companies simply can't operate on the time-scales needed to build and eventually profit from creating infrastructure. Instead of building something with the intent of breaking-even in 10 years, one will instead still be paying back interest accumulated on loans taken out 10 years ago.

The end result is that the role of building infrastructure in developed nations is now almost entirely assumed by governments, or contracted by government, which ends up creating virtual monopolies propped-up or subsidised by the state. Private companies which are profiting hugely from public money, but do not operate like regular companies because they don't have to compete with anybody and have little accountability. It's the worst elements of socialism and capitalism combined into one package.

In the academies, research projects which span 3+ years are now almost unheard of. It's more important to get 3+ publications per year, now matter how garbage they are, else the funding won't come around next year. We're seeing stagnation in many areas of science because research which is not short-term profitable is ignored.

For most of the working and middle classes, the high time preference results in them buying useless gadgets, largely for the purpose of wealth-signalling, eating junk food, getting wasted, anything to fill the requirement to spend the money one has earned, because it is not worth saving the money. For many, paying rent is preferred to buying property, because the latter requires saving to achieve, which is hard when people see their stored value decaying in their bank accounts.

The shift from inflationary money to non-inflationary money will fundamentally affect people's decision making in their purchases. It isn't going to happen overnight, but as people realize they can accumulate wealth without risky investments, they will come to value saving over spending. The companies producing cheap junk for short-term profit will have to change the way they operate to fit the changes in spending habits.

On (4), gold is still inflationary as new sources can be uncovered. It is better than fiat currencies which can be arbitrarily inflated, but it is still worse than zero inflation for anyone who wants to save money.

Gold is not too scarce. It can be more difficult to acquire than Bitcoin in some cases due to red-tape. Gold is not very fungible because it is difficult to separate. It's also difficult to verify that it is real gold. Even under gold monetary systems, a major source of inflation has been to dilute the amount of gold transacted by alloying it with small amounts of other metals. Over time the gold in the coinage has shrunk to fractions of its original amount. This can't be done with Bitcoin.

And the value of transmitting remotely, without censorship or interference should not be underestimated, particularly as governments and technology companies are increasingly pushing towards dystopias in order to attempt to save themselves from their own poor decision making.

Bitcoin also enables a kind of economy that was not previously possible, which is a micro-payment economy for online services. With some of the technology being built on bitcoin, you will soon be able to make instant payments worth fractions of a cent, with transaction fees being negligible. (This can already be done, just not yet at scale).

Since many people are invested both financially, and technologically in this space, it certainly isn't going to go away any time soon. If people happen to have their savings appreciate over that time by holding them in Bitcoin, it will only further cement Bitcoin's future as the next monetary standard.


Precious metals already solved this problem, and already have widespread acceptance.


Good luck sending gold through copper wires. Good luck transporting it without getting mugged. Good luck hiding it when the socialist state comes knocking for it.


Or even conveniently dividing it to pay for goods and services.


That's a solved problem. Precious metals are what you are looking for.


Chem engineer here.

I dont think precious metals will survive our lifetime.

Nuclear chemistry might be around the corner with either tech advancements or energy advancements. Only 1 needs to come true and it would kill the price of gold.


I'm still waiting for the hyperinflation Ron Paul and his adherents have been promising for....decades now.

If the best they can do is point to Zimbabwe or one or two other developing nations, then I think the concerns about governments printing money are either overblown or entirely off the mark.


Decades are not very long for debt. People usually hold bonds for decades.

The issue will come in when the cost to pay interest exceeds revenue. We would need debt to pay back debt, it will be THEN that we have hyper inflation.

If you have historical examples where this was avoided without printing money or invading a country, I'm interested.


The current debt is 20T, the current money supply is about 6T. The inflation is guaranteed to happen.

One reason why it has not is that we are the reserve currency so other countries have to have large US dollar reserves to buy oil.

As the world is weaned off oil, demand for US dollars will drop. At the same time we will have to print money to pay off the debt.


Look up Weimar Republic


Someone totally needs to write some fan-fiction where bitcoin running on mechanical computers prevents the rise of fascism.


Nice example of the grasping at straws. Can you actually answer parent's question with an example that is not almost 100years old?


Germany only finished the Versailles Treaty reparations in 2010.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/legacy-of-versai...


Are you taking the position that hyperinflation hasn’t happened in the last century, or simply that it only happens in banana republics?


In last half century, I would say yes. When you get close to 100y ago you get the always-mentioned Weimar, but I don't know about other cases. I would actually like to know more examples other than Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela.


It’s true that well-run countries generally don’t run into hyperinflation, but it’s also true that well-run countries turn into poorly-run countries very quickly (e.g., https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9_mR_M2zOc4Y2VhNzZkMDQtMDd... , feel free to ignore the first page; I’m only focusing on Gödel’s statements about countries turning into dictatorships).

The first relatively recent, nonobvious, example of hyperinflation that comes to my mind is Brazil during military dictatorship (which, yes, qualifies as a banana republic). According to Greenspan’s “Age of Turbulence,” Brazil paid for 90% of its budget with taxes and bonds like a well-run country, and printed money to cover the gap. Middle class and upper class workers got contracts with automatic inflation pay raises, but lower class workers did not. Those automatic pay raises created a feedback loop and hyperinflation ( http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/brazilinfl.htm ). When prices got too crazy, they lopped off a few zeros and renamed the currency (e.g., cruzeiro, cruzado, novo cruzeiro).

The solution to the problem was much more straightforward than I would have expected: (1) stop printing money to cover the deficit, (2) convince people that inflation would go away, and (3) get IMF loans to straighten out the government budget ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano_Real , the loans were quickly paid off).

I was convinced we would have high inflation when the Fed increased the money supply during the financial crisis ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE ). The fact that we haven’t shows that the Fed correctly predicted that people would want more currency on hand because of economic uncertainty, and in fact did a good job predicting the size of the change. I’m impressed that they did such a good job, but I’m not convinced they always will.

I wouldn’t get rid of the Fed, and I don’t have any money in gold or any other inflation hedge. But I don’t expect our current low inflation to last forever (since the Fed has been targeting a higher inflation rate than we’ve seen, I don’t think the low inflation rate is proof that the Fed has complete control of things; it is arguably proof of the Fed’s limits to get what it wants).


Thanks for reminding me of that Brazil crisis, that was definitely too-much-money-printing. But as you point out, it did get handled. Which brings me to my main point why I don't believe the hyperinflation scare:

> I was convinced we would have high inflation when the Fed increased the money supply during the financial crisis

MANY people were. But the "mainstream economist" camp of Krugman, Summers, etc. was clearly proven right in this scenario. Adding to that the Euro crisis in 2012 (which disappeared the moment ECB commited for real to saving the euro) and I became sceptical to supply side economics ... And the doubt never disappeared - once you stop to implicitly believe in "sound money", "gov't intervention is bad" or "inflation is bad" their theories fall apart completely.

And central banks & their actions suddenly start to make so much sense. BTC & other crypto loses it. And I've seen no arguments to convince me otherwise.

So I _do_ believe our current low inflation to last for a really long time. If EU falls apart and there will be another war in mid.east and trade war between China & USA erupts we will get it higher, but that's the only way I can see it getting there. Because we keep appointing way too sensible economists to central banks :)




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