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Look up Weimar Republic



Someone totally needs to write some fan-fiction where bitcoin running on mechanical computers prevents the rise of fascism.


Nice example of the grasping at straws. Can you actually answer parent's question with an example that is not almost 100years old?


Germany only finished the Versailles Treaty reparations in 2010.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/legacy-of-versai...


Are you taking the position that hyperinflation hasn’t happened in the last century, or simply that it only happens in banana republics?


In last half century, I would say yes. When you get close to 100y ago you get the always-mentioned Weimar, but I don't know about other cases. I would actually like to know more examples other than Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela.


It’s true that well-run countries generally don’t run into hyperinflation, but it’s also true that well-run countries turn into poorly-run countries very quickly (e.g., https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9_mR_M2zOc4Y2VhNzZkMDQtMDd... , feel free to ignore the first page; I’m only focusing on Gödel’s statements about countries turning into dictatorships).

The first relatively recent, nonobvious, example of hyperinflation that comes to my mind is Brazil during military dictatorship (which, yes, qualifies as a banana republic). According to Greenspan’s “Age of Turbulence,” Brazil paid for 90% of its budget with taxes and bonds like a well-run country, and printed money to cover the gap. Middle class and upper class workers got contracts with automatic inflation pay raises, but lower class workers did not. Those automatic pay raises created a feedback loop and hyperinflation ( http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/brazilinfl.htm ). When prices got too crazy, they lopped off a few zeros and renamed the currency (e.g., cruzeiro, cruzado, novo cruzeiro).

The solution to the problem was much more straightforward than I would have expected: (1) stop printing money to cover the deficit, (2) convince people that inflation would go away, and (3) get IMF loans to straighten out the government budget ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano_Real , the loans were quickly paid off).

I was convinced we would have high inflation when the Fed increased the money supply during the financial crisis ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE ). The fact that we haven’t shows that the Fed correctly predicted that people would want more currency on hand because of economic uncertainty, and in fact did a good job predicting the size of the change. I’m impressed that they did such a good job, but I’m not convinced they always will.

I wouldn’t get rid of the Fed, and I don’t have any money in gold or any other inflation hedge. But I don’t expect our current low inflation to last forever (since the Fed has been targeting a higher inflation rate than we’ve seen, I don’t think the low inflation rate is proof that the Fed has complete control of things; it is arguably proof of the Fed’s limits to get what it wants).


Thanks for reminding me of that Brazil crisis, that was definitely too-much-money-printing. But as you point out, it did get handled. Which brings me to my main point why I don't believe the hyperinflation scare:

> I was convinced we would have high inflation when the Fed increased the money supply during the financial crisis

MANY people were. But the "mainstream economist" camp of Krugman, Summers, etc. was clearly proven right in this scenario. Adding to that the Euro crisis in 2012 (which disappeared the moment ECB commited for real to saving the euro) and I became sceptical to supply side economics ... And the doubt never disappeared - once you stop to implicitly believe in "sound money", "gov't intervention is bad" or "inflation is bad" their theories fall apart completely.

And central banks & their actions suddenly start to make so much sense. BTC & other crypto loses it. And I've seen no arguments to convince me otherwise.

So I _do_ believe our current low inflation to last for a really long time. If EU falls apart and there will be another war in mid.east and trade war between China & USA erupts we will get it higher, but that's the only way I can see it getting there. Because we keep appointing way too sensible economists to central banks :)




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