Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

You’ve explained why dollars are inflationary, which I already knew. You haven’t, however, explained why an inflationary currency is bad.

> Which of these are you going to save money with?

Neither. Most of my savings is in productive assets (i.e. stocks). Some is in gold.




The inflationary money is bad in comparison to the non-inflationary money, because the inflationary money sees people's purchasing power lose value from the labour they underwent to acquire the currency, over short terms (a few years). The non-inflationary money however, sees people's purchasing power remain the same as their productive effort to acquire it, if not, increased from when they obtained it due to deflation.

When two forms of money exist and one is better than the other, people will save the better money and spend the worse money.

People do save with currency, usually in limited amounts or limited times, in large part due to its inflationary nature. Inflation forces a high time-preference on labour because the non-spender loses value over time. Putting money into stocks is not the same as saving, but it is investment, with varying degrees of risk. None are guaranteed to even preserve value, let alone profit. At present, Bitcoin behaves like a stock because its value wrt USD is so volatile.

Gold is only valuable because of it's perceived scarcity and historical use as a store of value. It is not priced so highly due to its intrinsic properties as a metal (it is neither that useful nor that scarce), unlike some other commodity metals.

Bitcoin is the digital equivalent of gold. Its value is based on scarcity and perception of value due to the ability to find someone who will trade it at an expected market rate for other currencies or for goods.


So far your argument seems to be:

(1) Saving is not the same thing as investment.

(2) Inflationary currencies encourage investment whereas non-inflationary ones encourage saving.

(3) It is better to encourage saving than to encourage spending.

(4) Bitcoin is a better non-inflationary currency than gold.

1 and 2 -- sure, agreed.

3 -- This is the most important part of your argument yet you have not explicitly stated it, nor argued in favor of it, anywhere. It is unclear to me why it's good policy not to encourage investment.

4 -- You are right that neither bitcoin nor gold has intrinsic value (not counting the value that gold would naturally have as an industrial material). Both are only valuable because other people perceive them as value.

However, people have perceived gold as valuable for thousand s of years. The fact that gold has value is deeply rooted in human culture and therefore not likely to change in our lifetime.

None of that is true for bitcoin.

So, what are we left with? The only advantage of bitcoin that I can discern in all of this is that it can be transferred via the internet in a censorship-resistant way. I do not think that advantage is important enough for most people to outweigh the disadvantages.


I would modify (3) to say: It is better to encourage saving than to encourage spending on useless shit that won't last.

The problem with today's "investment" is that it is almost entirely on shit that won't last, and is for the purpose of short-term monetary gain than for investment into infrastructure which will last generations. An "investment" today is concerned with the next quarter, 6-months or perhaps even a year. Most companies do not concern themselves with anything longer than 3 years, or anything to do with the well-being of the societies in which they operate. Most companies simply can't operate on the time-scales needed to build and eventually profit from creating infrastructure. Instead of building something with the intent of breaking-even in 10 years, one will instead still be paying back interest accumulated on loans taken out 10 years ago.

The end result is that the role of building infrastructure in developed nations is now almost entirely assumed by governments, or contracted by government, which ends up creating virtual monopolies propped-up or subsidised by the state. Private companies which are profiting hugely from public money, but do not operate like regular companies because they don't have to compete with anybody and have little accountability. It's the worst elements of socialism and capitalism combined into one package.

In the academies, research projects which span 3+ years are now almost unheard of. It's more important to get 3+ publications per year, now matter how garbage they are, else the funding won't come around next year. We're seeing stagnation in many areas of science because research which is not short-term profitable is ignored.

For most of the working and middle classes, the high time preference results in them buying useless gadgets, largely for the purpose of wealth-signalling, eating junk food, getting wasted, anything to fill the requirement to spend the money one has earned, because it is not worth saving the money. For many, paying rent is preferred to buying property, because the latter requires saving to achieve, which is hard when people see their stored value decaying in their bank accounts.

The shift from inflationary money to non-inflationary money will fundamentally affect people's decision making in their purchases. It isn't going to happen overnight, but as people realize they can accumulate wealth without risky investments, they will come to value saving over spending. The companies producing cheap junk for short-term profit will have to change the way they operate to fit the changes in spending habits.

On (4), gold is still inflationary as new sources can be uncovered. It is better than fiat currencies which can be arbitrarily inflated, but it is still worse than zero inflation for anyone who wants to save money.

Gold is not too scarce. It can be more difficult to acquire than Bitcoin in some cases due to red-tape. Gold is not very fungible because it is difficult to separate. It's also difficult to verify that it is real gold. Even under gold monetary systems, a major source of inflation has been to dilute the amount of gold transacted by alloying it with small amounts of other metals. Over time the gold in the coinage has shrunk to fractions of its original amount. This can't be done with Bitcoin.

And the value of transmitting remotely, without censorship or interference should not be underestimated, particularly as governments and technology companies are increasingly pushing towards dystopias in order to attempt to save themselves from their own poor decision making.

Bitcoin also enables a kind of economy that was not previously possible, which is a micro-payment economy for online services. With some of the technology being built on bitcoin, you will soon be able to make instant payments worth fractions of a cent, with transaction fees being negligible. (This can already be done, just not yet at scale).

Since many people are invested both financially, and technologically in this space, it certainly isn't going to go away any time soon. If people happen to have their savings appreciate over that time by holding them in Bitcoin, it will only further cement Bitcoin's future as the next monetary standard.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: