Full disclosure, I am not a conservative voter. YMMV
But a few things will spring to mind,
1) we tend to vote conservative when the books need balancing, and labour when we feel wealth is not being distributed properly
2) the conservatives always try to "cost save" on the NHS by privatising parts of it. This virtually always leads to decreased performance. We like the NHS (a lot).
3) like in most places in the world, we're in a living standards squeeze. They say they're turning the economy around, but in reality while the books might say that, the poor and middle class haven't noticed the difference. Tax has also not been noticeably reduced which is usually a conservative winner.
4) they formed a coalition government with the lib dems (they did not have a majority). Due to lib dems u-turning on some key points (tuition fees for example), and most lib dem voters are not pro conservative, they are likely to lose a lot of seats. So many so that another coalition seems unlikely.
5) nanny state-ism. An election point in the past here accused labour of this kind of behaviour, but now with their default on porn ban, the snoopers charter and others, it's starting to wash off.
oh and 6) UKIP. Historically the hard right wanted to exit the EU (and stop migration), but the conservatives keep dallying around on the subject(s). They're losing voters and MPs to UKIP who are seen by hard liners as more likely to deliver.
Unfortunately you have a rather poor read on the current electorate over here right now. While the Tories are not the most popular party around you have to look at the competition. Labour is a joke and Ed Miliband couldn't get elected to local council at this point; infighting between SNP and Labour in Scotland will mean that while the left will still have heavy support in the north it will not necessarily be to Labour that most MPs owe allegiance. The Lib Dems are done for the next decade. A cycle being ineffective lap dogs to the Tories has pretty much crushed their future. UKIP is picking up a lot of what is more nationalistic than traditional "hard right" and if it comes down to it UKIP would gladly replace the Lib Dems in the coalition; the Tories would prefer this not to happen but having UKIP out there is not quite as bad for them as it seems to most voters, the votes they lose are not going to be supporting a Labour government when all is said and done.
The end result is that you are likely to see the Tories back in power by the end of summer, in a somewhat different coalition and with mildly adjusted policies. Either way, more of the same.
Hmm, I always wonder about these kinds of polls for non-proportional representation systems.
Obviously if party supporters were evenly spread throughout the country, the outcome of the election would be a whitewash. It's not the case, though -- "Scotland tends to vote Labour" and so on. Gross vote supremacy obviously helps to win seats, but the relationship isn't obvious -- certainly small parties will tend to be under-represented, for example.
Exactly. If Labour can't get ahead of the Tories they are doomed and once people actually start seeing Ed's policies it is mostly downhill IMHO. Right now Labour has the advantage of being "not the Conservative party", but that won't get them far. Add up the Tories and UKIP -- if those two together total 50% then nothing else matters and Farage can acquire his pound of flesh if necessary...
But a few things will spring to mind,
1) we tend to vote conservative when the books need balancing, and labour when we feel wealth is not being distributed properly
2) the conservatives always try to "cost save" on the NHS by privatising parts of it. This virtually always leads to decreased performance. We like the NHS (a lot).
3) like in most places in the world, we're in a living standards squeeze. They say they're turning the economy around, but in reality while the books might say that, the poor and middle class haven't noticed the difference. Tax has also not been noticeably reduced which is usually a conservative winner.
4) they formed a coalition government with the lib dems (they did not have a majority). Due to lib dems u-turning on some key points (tuition fees for example), and most lib dem voters are not pro conservative, they are likely to lose a lot of seats. So many so that another coalition seems unlikely.
5) nanny state-ism. An election point in the past here accused labour of this kind of behaviour, but now with their default on porn ban, the snoopers charter and others, it's starting to wash off.
oh and 6) UKIP. Historically the hard right wanted to exit the EU (and stop migration), but the conservatives keep dallying around on the subject(s). They're losing voters and MPs to UKIP who are seen by hard liners as more likely to deliver.