Hmm, I always wonder about these kinds of polls for non-proportional representation systems.

Obviously if party supporters were evenly spread throughout the country, the outcome of the election would be a whitewash. It's not the case, though -- "Scotland tends to vote Labour" and so on. Gross vote supremacy obviously helps to win seats, but the relationship isn't obvious -- certainly small parties will tend to be under-represented, for example.

Exactly. If Labour can't get ahead of the Tories they are doomed and once people actually start seeing Ed's policies it is mostly downhill IMHO. Right now Labour has the advantage of being "not the Conservative party", but that won't get them far. Add up the Tories and UKIP -- if those two together total 50% then nothing else matters and Farage can acquire his pound of flesh if necessary...