The idea that we can be 100% confident that our current actions are guaranteed to create ecological catastrophe is just another iteration of the eternal short-sighted idea that the future will be just what we expect based on the fashionable ideas of today. The future may be laughing at our generation's idea that we're going to wreck the planet after practical fusion cleaned everything. Or they may be laughing at us worrying so much about "the environment" after the Great Civilization Collapse of 2023 reduces humanity to 2 billion anyhow. Or they may be laughing at how much time we spent worrying about ecological collapse while doing nothing about the obviously-inevitable-in-hindsight AI uprising. Or they may just be laughing at our concerns about environmental collapse as a broad spectrum of greener technologies ever so slowly but ever so surely took over and our mastery of our environment continued to grow to the point that we were easily able to have high tech and a nice environment.
For that matter, they may laugh at how much time we spent worrying about the environment as they live under the iron rule of the global government we created to "solve" the environmental problem, only for the global government to observe that if the "problem" is ever actually solved they have no reason to exist anymore, so, "mysteriously", the environmental problem is never solved, until it too grows too large to survive under its ponderous weight and collapses.
We don't know the future. We quite profoundly don't know the future. We honestly can't plan for it. We can only try to do our best today.
> We honestly can't plan for it. We can only try to do our best today.
The article mentions "long-range planning" as an aspect of intelligence.
People incapable of effectively affecting their future by taking action now (requiring "planning") are generally considered hapless. No one anyone'd want to work with, except to assist as with a helpless baby.
The article also mentions sustainable anarchist visions, in contrast to the shadowy "global government we created to 'solve' the environmental problem" you mention. (Or does that somehow mean the US, the world hegemon?) In fact, he mentions our "global economic system in the form of institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund", which obviously aren't designed for environmental sustainability.
"The article mentions "long-range planning" as an aspect of intelligence."
But our intelligence is dominated by the unpredictability of the world, including the six billion other approximately-equally-intelligent beings taking an active interest in affairs. The "time value of money" isn't just an economic concept, it's a fundamental truth that the further in the future you look, the less you can predict it, exponentially, and frankly disturbingly quickly.
We do not know what the future will hold, and anyone trying to plan 50 years in advance will be laughed at by those 50 years in the future. That includes you, that includes me, and I say that without any regard to the IQ either of us has, collectively or separately. We do not know, and the only thing I guarantee is that any plans you make will be laughably wrong.
But before you think this is just defeatism, remember, I said that we can try to do our best today. We should do what we can based on the problems we see today... not just because they will compound tomorrow, but because they are problems today.
However, claimed plans justified by any vague handwavings more than a decade or so into the future should simply be discounted.
Heck, step back a mere 17 years and read about "the end of history". Sure hope you're not still following any plans based on how that worked out.
As to predicting things, the last 50 years have changed things far less than you might expect. 50 years ago we had Jet aircraft, satellites, cars did 80+MPH, computers used silicon transistors, nuclear reactors, H-Bomb, ICBM's, you could talk to people on the other side of the planet. Doctors could easily write a prescription for antibiotics or order an XRay to see what's wrong with you. There where even some video games.
As far as peoples day to day lives transistors got really cheap which enabled lot's of stuff. But, the top 500 super computers pull 274 Pflop/s vs 223 Pflop/s the same time last year so that seems to be slowing down. http://www.top500.org/lists/2014/06/
Sure, tech has been improving but most of the tech that's changing peoples lives is actually fairly old. The Internet is about to hit 40, Cat scans are 47, Cellphones are 41, and DNA was discovered 61 years ago.
Politicly things have changed a lot less than you might think. Most borders are about where they where 50 years ago, Israel was still having issues with it's neighbors abortion was a major political issue in the US etc etc.
We are already living in an ecological catastrophe. Humans are currently killing off ~20,000 species per year compared to the natural rate of ~1-5. (estimates vary widely)
For that matter, they may laugh at how much time we spent worrying about the environment as they live under the iron rule of the global government we created to "solve" the environmental problem, only for the global government to observe that if the "problem" is ever actually solved they have no reason to exist anymore, so, "mysteriously", the environmental problem is never solved, until it too grows too large to survive under its ponderous weight and collapses.
We don't know the future. We quite profoundly don't know the future. We honestly can't plan for it. We can only try to do our best today.