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Playing the devils advocate. While I don't agree with his long term idea, looking at the last 17 years don't really suggest he was all that wrong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last...

As to predicting things, the last 50 years have changed things far less than you might expect. 50 years ago we had Jet aircraft, satellites, cars did 80+MPH, computers used silicon transistors, nuclear reactors, H-Bomb, ICBM's, you could talk to people on the other side of the planet. Doctors could easily write a prescription for antibiotics or order an XRay to see what's wrong with you. There where even some video games.

As far as peoples day to day lives transistors got really cheap which enabled lot's of stuff. But, the top 500 super computers pull 274 Pflop/s vs 223 Pflop/s the same time last year so that seems to be slowing down. http://www.top500.org/lists/2014/06/

Sure, tech has been improving but most of the tech that's changing peoples lives is actually fairly old. The Internet is about to hit 40, Cat scans are 47, Cellphones are 41, and DNA was discovered 61 years ago.

Politicly things have changed a lot less than you might think. Most borders are about where they where 50 years ago, Israel was still having issues with it's neighbors abortion was a major political issue in the US etc etc.




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