Here's the thing. Your advice has been constantly given to people wanting to lose weight for half a century. During that period, despite the people receiving the advice wanting to lose weight, the population has become massively obese. Makes me wonder why you're so cock-sure of yourself.
Anyway, Taubes deals very effectively with the argument you're presenting. The gist is that the number of kilo joules consumed does not have a particularly good correlation with fat stored, because the fat storage mechanism is mediated by insulin, which is heavily influenced by the consumption of carbohydrates.
I've met a lot of people who say that calorie counting doesn't work, but I haven't met a single person who consistently and meticulously counted calories over a long period of time, eating at a caloric deficit, who failed to lose weight.
The argument is that you won't keep off the weight. See chapter 2 of Why We Get Fat by Gary Taubes. If you turn off the calorie restriction, you gain all the weight back, and more.
> Makes me wonder why you're so cock-sure of yourself.
Because I've seen it work for hundreds and hundreds of people, and I know for a fact Weight Watchers (which is 100% what I'm talking about) has worked for millions of people.
> The gist is that the number of kilo joules consumed does not have a particularly good correlation with fat stored, because the fat storage mechanism is mediated by insulin, which is heavily influenced by the consumption of carbohydrates.
You're going to honestly tell me if I only put 9 gallons in my tank every day, but I burn 10 every day that I won't "run out" and burn up my reserve tank?
You're wanting to make it so complicated you can't see the simplicity in front of you.
If I was an inanimate heat engine, you would have me dead to rights. But I'm not, I'm a living creature with free will (or a good approximation thereof). If I start feeling hungry, I'm going to want to eat, and it's not much use telling me that I shouldn't, if my body is crying out for more food I'll listen to it more than you (whereby "I" I mean an average person - it just so happens that personally I'm capable of resisting the urge, but I know I'm in the minority on this one).
When you eat carbohydrates, your body produces insulin, which encourages your body to suck the glycogen out of circulation, and store it in triglycerides. Congratulations, you just got fatter, and worse still, because all of that glycogen has just been stored away, you're feeling hungry again.
That means that if you can find foods that help keep your body from sending the "hungry" signal (by e.g not triggering the insulin-response), then you will naturally eat less.
>If I start feeling hungry, I'm going to want to eat, and it's not much use telling me that I shouldn't
So you admit that eating less calories is a valid way to lose weight, but that it takes willpower to stick to the diet? Use that free will of yours to eat less calories, and not less yourself become an inanimate eating machine. Sounds like you're letting your body control you, not the other way around.
I think you might be exaggerating when you say Weight Watchers has worked for millions of people. Here's a nice article about their success rate: http://fatfu.wordpress.com/2008/01/24/weight-watchers/ It says it's extremely low, less than 1%.
You linked a fat activists blog to try to prove a point? As far as I'm concerned, anyone who thinks eating less than you burn in energy won't lose you weight is selling something.
Anyway, Taubes deals very effectively with the argument you're presenting. The gist is that the number of kilo joules consumed does not have a particularly good correlation with fat stored, because the fat storage mechanism is mediated by insulin, which is heavily influenced by the consumption of carbohydrates.