Most HN-ers work on web startups where $100k is a lot of capital and time to market is everything. I don't think they have a good grasp on the mechanics of industries where you can burn through $100k in a few weeks and where a usable product might take 3-5 years or more to make it to market.
This. One of the biggest risks I would see in a startup these days is that the moment you start to be successful or even just get decent funding there's a decent chance you will be patent trolled out of existence.
The whole point is that its very difficult to quantify. The purpose of government, law, and indeed perhaps civilization itself is to reduce the amount of random, unquantifiable risks in daily life.
That's whats so bad about patent trolling. Its just so uncivilized.
zm didn't say it was difficult to quantify. He said there was a "decent chance" of being sued. The implication is that he has quantified it and that quantity amounts to a "decent chance."
"decent chance" implies you have quantified the probability and concluded it is somewhere between unlikely and likely. It needn't be precise, but it implies a quantity. There is a 0.001% chance of my dying in a car accident this year. If someone said "you shouldn't move to the suburbs because there is a decent chance you'll die commuting" you'd probably shrug that off as hyperbole. There is a 1-3% chance of pregnancy each year despite use of birth control. Would you say "there is a decent chance of knocking up your girlfriend even with condom use?" Possibly, but I think most people consider that probability "remote" rather than "decent." There is a 10% chance of being audited as a small business. Is that "decent"? I think most people would say "keep your books carefully, there is a decent chance of yor being audited."
