> China is rapidly decarbonizing, India is right behind, it is the US you have to convince to move faster (coal plants are rapidly on their way out, but US consumers prefer ICE pickups over EVs, and LNG exports must be prevented and substitutes found [carbon footprint determined to be substantially higher than coal]).
I argue this ignores rate of change of manufacturing capacity and deployment trajectories, but concede all we can do is speculate based on data available today.
IDK, does not look that way:
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/ https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/ https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/ https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/
At best China will stay the same, India will increase emissions, meanwhile both US and EU emissions will significantly drop.