China had a ban on Australian imports in the wake of the Australian PM saying that Xi and China should be investigated because of Covid or something along those lines.
China just this last week dropped the ban and expected Australian imports to come flooding back in but almost nobody bit that hook due to the amount of time and money export companies had spent arranging relationships with other countries instead of China in the wake of the ban.
If it's China that did it, they're in a world of hurt from the UAE.
DP World owns most of the major ports globally. It's absolutely massive and a critical part of the UAE's larger geopolitical strategy.
They operate the Antwerp Port, Le Harve Port, Qingdao Port, Hong Kong Port, Tianjin Port, Mudra Port, just about every port in Australia, Saigon Port, Karachi Port, Vancouver Port, Manila Port, Busan Port, Laem Chabang Port, etc.
They are the backbone of global logistical infrastructure.
DP is owned by Dubai's royal family (Makhtoom). If AD Ports properties were also hit (owned by the Abu Dhabi royal family - the Nayhan's) it's game over. Whichever country did this would be de facto blocked from UAE, and the UAE is critical for Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Indian FDI.
"Nice port you got there, UAE. It looks like you are currently not really using it. And we really, really need to use it. I guess we just have to operate it for you. Call it... uhh... a critical infrastructure emergency, or anything like that." ;)
Hey there 60% of the Politburo and a massive portion of Chinese conglomerates.
You want your oil payments processed (done in UAE) [0], your international shipping payments processed (done in UAE) [1], and your OBOR investments across Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia untouched (the UAE is the largest FDI player in all those countries and China often co-invests with the UAE due to a limited presence in those regions) [2], don't mess with us.
By the way, it would be a might shame if all 400,000 Overseas Chinese in the UAE from prostitues in Marina to oligarchs in the Palm Jumeirah were deported due to an act of cyberwar and $107 Billion in UAE-China trade ground to a halt.
Saudi Arabia did a similar thing to Pakistan from 2017-2020 in relation for Imran Khan's support of Qatar. 40,000 Pakistanis were deported near overnight, forced a $1 Billion loan repayment, began investing in Indian Kashmir, and supported the Pakistani Army's de facto coup against Khan in 2022 [3].
Now the Saudi-Pakistan relationship is a different power differential than UAE-China, but China is more dependent on the UAE than the UAE is on China, especially as they are one of the primary players in the Indian, Indonesian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Egyptian, Iranian, Russian, and Vietnamese economies, and can make China's life hell in Central+South Asia, Middle East, and Africa.
I will give you that it would be a huge hassle for the likes of China and my fake citation was obviously tongue in cheek. But maybe the dependency goes a bit more both ways and while China et al. might not want to go through with such actions, neither the UAE wants to stir the water to much, especially if they are up against giants. That is my guess, at least.
I didn't realize that. There have been a lot of idiots in HN who have written comments like your unironically, so I've become much more combative to misinformation
I wouldn't rush to blame the Chinese for this yet. It could also just be a coincidence.
Perpetrating a massive cyberattack during APEC before meeting Albanese and Biden is just horrible optics and destroys the ongoing normalization efforts
> ...and expected Australian imports to come flooding back in but almost nobody bit that hook due to the amount of time and money export companies had spent arranging relationships with other countries instead of China in the wake of the ban.
Do you have a source for this? I feel it's very generalised and doesn't take into account the individual industries.
Take Australian red wine for instance, domestic producers haven't found a new export market to take the volume China did. It's negatively impacted the industry significantly and I'm quite certain once Australian wine producers can gain non-tariffed access to the Chinese market again the oceans of red will once again flow.
This is what I based my original take off of, which then led to some independent research on the topic over the course of the week. Interestingly enough the article discusses the wine exports as you have mentioned as well.
I kinda think if you want honest appraisals of the Australia/China relationship you'd probably want to look at domestic Australia sources when compared to the wsj.
In all transparency no, it wouldn’t load then and it still won’t now for some reason. Despite that it seems that the previous Australian ambassador believes that the relationship will remain strong between the two countries, I don’t doubt that.
But you can’t deny that there is probably some lasting damage if not with financials then at the very least with reputation for these private companies that now find themselves in some awkward positions with suppliers and import/export regulations.
Feel free to summarize the video if you’d like I don’t have a pessimistic outlook on the whole thing, I just think that China has their fingers in too many pies right now if you catch my drift.
Basically Australia has balanced national security via FVEY/US backing with a huge economic upswing delivered off the back of China's rise globally for a couple decades now. Australia is effectively a parasitic passenger on the back of China from an economic growth perspective.
When ScoMo called for the Covid investigation back in 2020, China responded with a raft of tariffs which seemed designed to incur maximum political pain for domestic Australian politicians. And while some industries found new markets for their products, others were left holding the bag domestically. Wine and rock lobsters are good examples of this.*
And while I do acknowledge that the relationships have been damaged, I also recognise these specific industries have been taking an absolute bath financially from this now gone export market. Australian businesses have bore the financial brunt of these decisions, not the Chinese.
Australians have experience logistically with the Chinese market, contacts on the ground, and the desire to move product that historically has sold very well into that market. And when faced with continued financial pain due to a lack new markets being developed (come to find out that's quite hard for some things like wine and lobster) I suspect these industries will welcome the return of exports to China with open arms, primarily as they're probably on life support as I type this and desperately need those free cash flows for solvency.
* I live in Perth, Western Australia, safe to say "we've" been talking about this issue pretty much since the tariffs were announced
Greetings from the US, happy to hear from someone who has boots on the ground and something valuable to offer the discussion. I didn’t think my original comment would spiral into all this I just wanted to have discussions like the one we’re having know and gain some more insight on the situation as a whole.
I would be interested to see some economic figures on the list 3 years for these industries as I’m sure the initial hit did not feel good but has there been momentum for new countries that are importing these goods? We all know China pays a premium and takes in some serious tonnage but will working with these other countries eventually match that prosperity? If not directly, then indirectly by helping industry boom across new countries?
Genuinely curious on your thoughts, I’m more talking about raw iron ore, coal, etc. here but it would be nice if there could be the development of a middle class in India or Vietnam for example that enjoyed fine Australian lobster and wine on the regular.
The raw materials are lifeblood to China and not easily replaced, they are inputs to Chinese industry and generate wealth for China after processing, sale and export in addition to providing infrastructure for growth.
The fancy goods for the chinese middle class is not a small market either; demographically China now has a middle class with disposable income that is larger than the entire population (all classes) of the USofA.
This is not the Red China the McCarthy era foaming anti communists warned us about, this is a country within another country that wants fine fibre merino wool suits, ethical cotton, nearly organic wheat, hand massaged beef, etc.
As much as the Xi faction enjoyed dropping the hammer on fine goods from Australia as payback for ScoMo rushing in with ill considerd comments from his National Party cheer squad they also faced some push back at home from disgruntled chinese consumers.
The demand is still there for the fine goods, once the political gates drop a little the spice will flow again.
The growth of the middle class in China has been staggering over the last 15 years or so and I do agree with your statements as a whole, but how do you think the looming recession especially with the housing and development industry of China will pair with a middle class that, as all middle classes do, will bear the brunt of this load. This is a fairly new middle class system which is in my opinion built upon a fragile foundation. China has curated every aspect of their economy to create such a class based on assumptions that are now beginning to fault as growth slows to a halt and the economy begins to suffer. I think that upper middle class luxuries, while still in demand, will not return to the former glory of pre-2020 for quite a while for this reason.
Yeah it’s a bad look, especially since Australia pivoted to India to fill the large gap China left in their export market. Now India is importing from Australia at a rate that is alarming only to China.
The only problem for Australia is the China was often times paying radically larger premiums for Australian goods then any other country would be willing to pay. So everyone is starting to feel the heat.
Moreover they're not particularly susceptable to remote cyber attack having been built in the 1970s.
Dampier, Cape Lambert, Port Hedland, are all single jetty deep water ports with single high capacity conveyor belts that run out to human operated ship loaders.
These aren't high volume container ports with fancy networked container picking & stacking robots servicing multiple ships at a time with complex consignment lists.
The iron ore shore facalities are physically, electrically, network wise, isolated mostly manual operations with joystick loaders, captained pilot boats, and line of sight sea flag siognalling and radio channel communication.
You can take them out with a bomb but not a cyber attack.
I think it's unrealistic to expect complex export operations and contracts to be rerouted in a week. Like we saw with Brexit, stopping trade flows is very quick and easy but restarting them is very slow and hard. Chinese leadership typically reasons in terms of decades (or more), I wouldn't expect them to be mad with rage after a week.
Eg. For Putin. Yes men: Yes, Take Kyiv in 3 days and it's a done deal.
Reality: lose > 300 k. Troops, a major portion of all Soviet tanks, risk of Russia splitting, occupy part of Ukraine instead of the whole, lose 300 billion € in Western banks, bring other countries into NATO, risk sphere of influence, Russian military strength debunked, ...
Additionally: paranoia
The only thing that was correct of Putin's analysis is that corrupt people mostly "support" him. ( Trump, Orban, Xi, Erdogan)
Their propaganda failed where it matters ( except in Slovakia concerning the EU). However it's still in Africa, but don't have enough info about it.
> Chinese leadership typically reasons in terms of decades (or more)
No offense, but who keeps perpetuating this myth. Is this Zeihan bullshit?
In my previous life I've worked with people who worked at or near those levels and Chinese policymakers aren't any different from those in other countries (though the older generation does seem to have a bit of a penchant of skimming the top more than younger ones).
If there was a long term multigenerational plan, then LGFVs would have been cracked down a decade ago, they wouldn't have bungled the entire Semiconductor Manufacturing subsidy (only 1 company remains out of 6-7 that were given tens of billions of dollars, most of which was skimmed by corruption), and they wouldn't have instigated a trade war with South Korea and Japan leading both nations to move their investments to Vietnam and India respectively.
Obviously the intraparty bickering is just as in any other country, but imho it's fairly true that, not having to trouble themselves too much with popular opinion, Chinese leaders tend to push for long-term projects with more abandon than the average Western politician. Deng's pivoting, their moves in Africa, the "new Silk Road" / Belt and Road initiative, the artificial islands in the Straits - the horizon of these projects goes beyond the next (fixed) election, in a way that we don't really see anymore in the West.
That doesn't mean these projects are "better", that there is no (massive) corruption, that it's a preferable governance model (fuck no), etc etc.
Touché. I'm just grumbling about all the bullshit pop geopolitics I'm seeing on HN. It's all essentially orientalizing the Chinese experience by treating g Chinese policymakers as either omniscient calculating malicious geniuses or bumbling authoritarians strangling the golden goose. The reality is just much more prosaic and it pisses me off as someone who worked directly on this stuff in the early/mid 2010s.
I understand the sentiment, but you have too high expectations for here. Everything but programming is going to be pop-sci, pop-geopol, pop-econ, etc. in general. But it's odd you have such a distaste for Zeihan, because it sounds like you were doing similar work, as he was a Stratfor analyst. Zeihan is pop-geopol palatable, assuredly, and he keeps getting certain details wrong that invokes Gell-Mann amnesia. But he's better than 95% of the mostly silly international relations talking heads, and for that I'm grateful.
Most people in the policy world who want to have a tangible impact have to work with credible organizations that have a direct impact on policymaking (Govt Agencies, Defense, Lobbying firms, the hill, top tier NGOs and Think Tanks).
Stratfor isn't one of those. It's founder George Friedman has had a notoriously horrible track record in the IR space
For example, in the 90s he predicted Japan would start a war with the US and did a massive press junket about this from 1991-1996. Turns out, the opposite happened, yet his "analysis" had a massive negative impact on US-Japan relations and impacted foreign discourse in the 1992, 1994, and 1996 elections.
The big issue is no person with credible domain experience wants to work at Stratfor. If you have years of policymaking experience, there are multiple other better paying career options than a firm located in Austin TX - about as far from politics as they can be.
They shut down their DC office in 2001 after they lost all credibility, and pivoted to a bit of consulting (think McKinsey type work) before pivoting to thought leadership and media junkets.
They're about as credible as IDC or Gartner are about technology.
> better than 95% of the mostly silly international relations talking heads
Who and where are you getting your sources? If you're watching/reading Cable News or a subset of niche blogs, you are completely out of the loop of where the actual conversations and discussions are happening.
I can give you some actual credible sources that people in the field use. Most people in the space don't really participate on CNN or the like.
And if you are going to pull the "Russia Invasion of Ukraine in 2022" example, multiple of the top think tanks and NGOs publicly broadcasted that threat half a year before it actually happened, but they weren't invited to CNN or Fox to discuss.
> you have too high expectations for here. Everything but programming is going to be pop-sci, pop-geopol, pop-econ, etc. in general
I wouldn't care if I wasn't seeing conversations veering to that on a near daily basis here on HN. I want to nerd out about Golang and the business of tech (that's why I'm on here), but seeing entire echo chambers of people talking out of their ass about stuff needed to be rectified and I decided to start jumping into those conversations, but it's basically yelling into a vacuum. Hopefully YC cuts HN now that most of the old guard has retired. Bookface is nowhere as bad as HN.
> Who and where are you getting your sources? If you're watching/reading Cable News or a subset of niche blogs, you are completely out of the loop of where the actual conversations and discussions are happening.
I’m not watching cable news, or getting it from from the rest of the niche media cranks. That’s what I’m talking about the 95%. That Zeihan threads the needle between not being the brightest most connected in DC, but giving geopol info better than most of the crap there is. Since I’m a layman, I personally have an info diet from Zeihan, Caspian Report, Dmitri Alperovitch, and the DC think tank Institute for the Study of War, a long with the occasional book like Prisoners of Geography and World Order.
> And if you are going to pull the "Russia Invasion of Ukraine in 2022" example,
Would never. My info diet, kudos to Dmitri Alperovitch, made me almost certain of this back in Dec 21, a few months before.
Of course Bookface wouldn’t be as bad, it’s further filtered.
You should give me some good sources to compare to then, since your answer of 200 think tank list by a university, whose report ended in 2019, includes ISW at #92 in the US and Alperovitch's DC think tank, Silverado, was started in 2021.
Stick with the top 10 globally, and then maybe the top 4-5 per region. Start reading books published by people affiliated to those think tanks, and recognize that OSINT is largely dead after 2022.
Though not involved in this particular discussion I would love to know your credible sources so I can better keep in the know.
I’ve only recently ventured back to focusing on current events after a 2 year nihilistic fallout with my perception of modern media and I’m desperately trying to get a foothold on some real solid reporting.
> recently ventured back to focusing on current events
Don't. It's completely useless. You are not in a position to make a change so it's completely useless. Grassroots activism almost never works without explicit backing from someone with some power.
That said, if you still want to waste your time and mental sanity, for international relations I'd use the list provided by this prof at UPenn who's entire professorship is about ranking think tanks [0].
I'd also recommend reading this guide on how to evaluate think tanks from Harvard Expos 10 [1]
I see your outlook isn’t much different from mine before I separated myself from the space. More philosophically than technically. Nevertheless I appreciate you providing those sources.
Keep doing what you can and not stressing over what you can’t.
> No offense, but who keeps perpetuating this myth. Is this Zeihan bullshit?
The origin is a mistranslation/misquote, albeit maybe one that played into the desire of the left to believe that communist dictatorship is a system in which wise long-termist technocrats get to make better decisions than presidents with an 8 year term limit, or CEOs focused on the next quarter.
--
In 1972, Chinese premier Zhou Enlai was asked about the impact of the French Revolution. “Too early to say,” he replied. Given that the French Revolution of 1789 had occurred nearly 200 years before, Zhou Enlai was expressing the long view of history in a very witty and Oscar Wildean way. News of this quote flew quickly around the chattering classes in the west, and it was soon used as evidence that the Chinese (especially Chinese intellectuals and leaders) took the long view of things, that they were a patient civilization, and that, when they thought about the future, it was hundreds of years distant.
Alas, Buzzkillers, it seems as if this was a case of mistranslation or misunderstanding the question. Prominent American diplomat Chas Freeman was a translator during that trip, and he was there when Zhou Enlai made this statement. Along with Chinese records of the exchange seen by historians, Freeman has confirmed for us that Zhou Enlai did reply to a question about the French Revolution — the 1968 student uprising in Paris, that is, not the 1789 French Revolution.
These are no longer typical times for Chinese leadership. Chairman Xi has successfully purged all other power centers but this has made him increasingly isolated and surrounded only by sycophants. Underlings are now afraid to bring him bad news or push back on bad decisions. Thus, we should expect to see an escalating level of errors and miscalculations.
Xi’s leadership style is beginning to show very serious parallels to Chiang Kai-Shek’s leadership of China in the early 20th century, but with a fair bit more competency and an unbelievably higher level of influence and power.
I am unsure which era of Chiang Kai Shek you are referring to. Multiple warlords ruled CKS-era China. CKS did not have any power in North China. CKS capital was Nanjing. The CKS era was full of war with communists and other warlords.
Ah but he did not have the “full” support for the last 20 years of his reign due to his insistence on using foreign aid to bolster his holding in Nanjing instead of pushing out the Japanese from the mainland to the north and in Burma. He was more concerned with losing power to the communists than losing his country to Japan. While his role was viewed as “democratic” in the eyes of the US media his role was nothing short of a one-party dictatorship that suffered from the same inability of subordinates being able to notify the powers that be of anything even resembling bad news.
This whole Xi gonna go crazy take on China is so silly. It's a massive country with a single party that has been in power for over 70 years. One person isn't going to be able to make any drastic decisions at all.
It reminds me of the demographic collapse nonsense that people have been spouting for 30 years. It's all such cope, it's pathetic.
Chairman Mao made a lot of drastic decisions. There's really nothing in the Chinese government system to prevent that from happening again.
No one is seriously claiming that Xi is crazy. However, even perfectly sane and intelligent people tend to make poor decisions when they're fed inaccurate information.
The demographic collapse due to the one child policy is literally happening right now. Their population is aging faster than most of the rest of the world, although their neighbors in East Asia have similar patterns.
That was more than 40 years ago, and he was the first leader of the party after a revolution. A lot has happened since then, so it's ridiculous to use that to predict current events. This is worse than astrology.
Apparently you haven't been paying attention to recent events. Xi has spent the last several years consolidating power. There are no longer multiple competing cliques within the CCP. He now has a level of personal control not seen since Mao. So, we shouldn't be surprised if similar patterns repeat.
For one example, Xi's pointless and counterproductive measures to contain COVID-19 are certainly reminiscent of Mao's four pests campaign. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
No not to zero, I believe Australian exports to China went from 45% to 37% in 1 year. I have the article link posted in one of my comments below. In retro my use of the word ban makes it seem expansive and absolute but really it just resulted in billions and billions of dollars redirected or lost.
China is grappling with deflation [1]. It is likely they’re in a recession, at least in sectors relevant to housing demand. Given the state of regional government and developer finances, I don’t see where this de novo steel comes from.
Probably worth mentioning China kept buying the iron ore (it seems out of need), so this isn't about steel. Trade of coal and many other goods were restricted; there is now an anticipation that exports of wine, coal, lobsters, etc will rebound.
Are we talking about a sophisticated attack with a lot of effort? Or like a 14yo script kiddie running a portscan and then a script (downloaded from the internet) on all found open ports?
But I do think society needs to get over the "14 year old script kiddie" slur. The "Enterprise Architects" and "CISCO" being paid a fortune only to be victims of basic issues don't get to look their nose on the people who used a basic exploit.
Yeah the article makes it pretty far before saying “maritime ports” and even then the article never seemed to acknowledge that there is ambiguity in “shutting down port operations” created when the triggering event is a cyber attack.
I appreciate you may not be aware of the Independent but it’s a general audience publication. That author isn’t even a tech journalist so I doubt they are even aware of what a TCP/IP port is let alone that it’s related to the subject matter in any way.
They’d probably have more familiarity with “port” used in other contexts like:
- the opposite of starboard
- USB port
- the alcoholic beverage (like Wine)
…amongst any array of other usages.
And out of all of them, the one that makes the most grammatical sense to your average person is maritime ports.
So I don’t think it’s unreasonable the way it was written.
So when you read DP World is shutting down four major ports in the first few sentences: You thought that a private company was requiring every other private company & the various govts in Aus to firewall off the http port or something like that?
I'm all for blaming schools and blaming journalists for mistakes stupid people make, but that seems like it's on you being a little too credulous.
I figured it out from context clues, like everyone else. I just found it a little disappointing that in an article about Australia locking down ports after a cyber attack, there wasn’t even a clarifying statement that it wasn’t talking about a network firewall.
Although this is not a tech focused publication, it seemed a bit of an oversight and I wasn’t the only one who thought so.
If a country has the capability to "lock down ports", they're probably shipping ports - do you think Australia is just suddenly going to (or has the capability to) block all IP traffic on certain ports? A notable exception is China.
"The operator shut down four ports at Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Fremantle after detecting a cybersecurity incident late on Friday night. DP World is responsible for 40 per cent of Australia’s maritime freight."
The headline doesn't fully jive with the text. Ports were shut down by a private company called "DP World Australia". DP World is an UAE based shipping company that apparently operates some Australian ports and handles 40% of country's shipping traffic? Obviously it's a major fish so the government basically has no choice and tries to help them sort out the attack.
Earlier that week there was a humungous telco outage at Optus in Australia too. All (mobile?) services down for almost 24 hours and they still dont know what caused it. A few days later, this happens at the ports. May or may not be linked.
It could be a state player that doesnt want Australia and China to trade... USA perhaps?
The Optus outage was in the order of 8-9 hours and was a core network fault off the back of a bodged upgrade rolled out in the middle of the night. It's completely unrelated to China, the United States, or geopolitics in general. Optus has laid off a lot of engineers since Covid and those decisions are starting to have knock on effects.
Note the "7d" (7 days) on the end of the url, so if you're trying that link more than a week after the Optus event you might need to bump that number up.
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Doesn't seem like captures / snapshots of Cloudflare Radar by The Wayback Machine (web.archive.org), nor archive.today work.
Seems to only capture the html/css/js, but without any data. So the graphs are all empty / grey. :(
I would generally suggest if you haven't patched a Netscaler by this point, which Shodan suggests they had not, you're a timebomb for a ransomware outbreak.
There's a lot of political suggestions that have reasonable arguments but I'd be very surprised if there was much more targeting than "hey we found another unpatched Netscaler".
China had a ban on Australian imports in the wake of the Australian PM saying that Xi and China should be investigated because of Covid or something along those lines.
China just this last week dropped the ban and expected Australian imports to come flooding back in but almost nobody bit that hook due to the amount of time and money export companies had spent arranging relationships with other countries instead of China in the wake of the ban.