They missed the first-mover advantage with Cloud, and they're now more and more obviously missing it with public AI tools.

What's worrying is how Microsoft and Openai are constantly announcing and pushing great stuff live. It makes whatever announcements from Google look minor.

I can almost hear the alarm klaxons in Mountain View from where I'm sitting and I'm sitting in Europe.

> They missed the first-mover advantage with Cloud

They also missed the first-mover advantage with web search.

And webmail.

And online video hosting.

And online ads.

(In fact, very few of the dominant players anywhere in tech had first-mover advantage in that field.)

Google was a different company back then.

They evolved into a stagnant beast, I would be very surprised if they manage to turn the ship fast enough.

They will survive like Nokia or Kodak survived.

They bought their way into several of those, something that is much more difficult to to do these days.

Microsoft have effectively bought their way into OpenAI. The fact Google have done LaMDA on their own gives them a great starting point to compete.

OpenAI could just be another Netscape.

Microsoft has a very good leader at the helm, Alphabet does not. You can already see the difference that makes from the last few years. Alphabet has no soul culturally, whatever it once had is long gone.

Microsoft is overwhelmingly a software company. What is Alphabet? Microsoft still knows what it is.