• In January 2021 he said end of 2021 [2].
• In May 2022 he said May 2023 [1].
So he moved from around 2 years to 1 year.
Looking at the rate of progress from Tesla FSD videos on YouTube, I wouldn't bet on 2023.
Whenever people talk about Tesla FSD, I always like to point to Cruise who just got a permit to carry paying riders in California [3]. Honestly, their software looks significantly smarter than Tesla's -- Highly recommend their 'Cruise Under the Hood 2021' video for anyone interested in self-driving![4]
Look, the message is clear enough already: FSD is two years away, and always will be! You've got to admire that kind of consistency.