Right, but are all vaccines equal ? Take the chinese Sinovac one for instance, which several countries have been using for their mass vaccination program. Preliminary data in Brazil showed an efficacy of about 50% in preventing asymptomatic infection[1].
Are we sure that it will be able to "end the pandemic" in these countries as well as the mRNA ones? I remain a bit skeptical. In a CDC simulation[0] back in June 2020, the conclusion was that:
> This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).
Could someone more educated than me in the matter chime in?
“As of December 16, 2020, there were 12,396 health workers over 18 years old enrolled. A total of 253 positive cases were collected during the observation period. After 14 days following vaccination with 2 doses of vaccine following a 0, 14 day schedule, the efficacy rate against diseases caused by COVID-19 was 50.65% for all cases, 83.70% for cases requiring medical treatment, and 100.00% for hospitalized, severe, and fatal cases.”
The near 100% efficacy against hospitalization and severe disease is still sufficient to end the disease burden of the pandemic.
The virus may become endemic to the human race, but if the disease burden is somewhere in between the common cold and seasonal influenza then the _pandemic_ is over.
Are we sure that it will be able to "end the pandemic" in these countries as well as the mRNA ones? I remain a bit skeptical. In a CDC simulation[0] back in June 2020, the conclusion was that:
Could someone more educated than me in the matter chime in?[0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7361120/
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-55642648