You give Florida as an example. If we scaled up New Zealand's population to Florida's their total COVID-19 fatalities would be about 100. But Florida's policy approach has killed over 20 thousand people already, and shows no sign of stopping.
You list as a downside of New Zealand's approach unemployment. Scaled up, New Zealand would have about 600k unemployed people. But Florida actually has 650k. So that seems like instead of avoid unemployment, an economy devastated by pandemic but unwilling to lockdown has shrunk anyway.
So so far your cost is twenty thousand extra friends and relatives dead, and your "benefit" is fifty thousand extra unemployed.
Did you actually perform a cost/benefit analysis? I don't think you did.
>But Florida's policy approach has killed over 20 thousand people already, and shows no sign of stopping.
Keep in mind that the 20000 death number is highly inflated because it include death with covid not just due to covid. People who happen to be covid positive during the death is included in the number.
Most importantly with the current death number, i didn't say florida government handling it perfectly but I much much rather to live in this place if I have choice.
If you think its a horrible way to live then only thing i can say: to each their own.
>and shows no sign of stopping
as more and more the virus spread, more people develop natural immunity
as times go the treatment method improve
and then there is vaccine coming
>But Florida actually has 650k.
Keep in mind that unemployment number is not all solely caused by lockdown
But for sure some unemployment is caused by lockdown due to simple logic: if you don't allow business to open due to lockdown, the worker wouldn't have job.
My simple cost-benefit analysis:
The risk/cost of covid :
less than 1% death rate and mostly skewed to older population
The lockdown risk/cost:
Some unemployment, some bankruptcy, some mental health issue, some delayed treatment of other illness, kids can't attend in person school, etc
At least for me The lockdown risk/cost is much more than the risk/cost of covid
>So so far your cost is twenty thousand extra friends and relatives dead, and your "benefit" is fifty thousand extra unemployed.
More accurate example would be: 1 people I know dead due to covid, benefit : life continue as normal for the rest of people.
Pretty damn worth it to me.
> Keep in mind that the 20000 death number is highly inflated because it include death with covid not just due to covid.
Although 20 thousand people's cause of death is listed as COVID-19, about 27 thousand excess deaths occurred already in Florida, and that'll probably be closer to 30 thousand by New Year.
So, rather than 20 thousand being "highly inflated" as you propose it's likely a considerable undercount.
> But for sure some unemployment is caused by lockdown due to simple logic: if you don't allow business to open due to lockdown, the worker wouldn't have job.
Unemployment is being caused largely by the economic slowdown, and by significantly reduced footfall, driven by inability to control a pandemic.
Of course in New Zealand that's largely restricted to just one sector: International tourism, whereas in Florida their whole economy is constantly being kicked in the head by the policies you admire and will be for months to come.
>27 thousand excess deaths occurred already in Florida
Are the excess death is solely caused by covid ?
>Unemployment is being caused largely by the economic slowdown, and by significantly reduced footfall, driven by inability to control a pandemic.
I'm not saying I agree with all Florida government policies. The unemployment issue exist even without pandemic, but here I'm specifically taking about the unemployment that is caused by lockdown.
if you don't allow business to open, then some extra unemployment bound to happen. Assuming the lockdown do work, Is it worth it for a virus that have less than 1% death rate ? for me its very very not worth it. Furthermore unemployment is just one of the many of problem caused by lockdown.
> Are the excess death is solely caused by covid ?
Not all of them, I'm sure plenty of people in Florida committed suicide out of despair, drank themselves to death and so on as a result of the pandemic virus as well. It would be easy to become hopeless somewhere with tens of thousands of needless deaths while idiots cheer it on from a safe distance.
> if you don't allow business to open, then some extra unemployment bound to happen
If all your businesses are "open" but potential customers sensibly choose to reduce their exposure by staying away, unemploymentment sky-rockets anyway, as it has in Florida. Then you'd need substantial government action to prevent the worst effects of that, and of course that was never likely under Trump whereas Ardern's government in New Zealand immediately began programmes to try to prevent employers going bankrupt during Level 3 and to protect individuals from the economic impact, as well as pursuing elimination strategy for the virus itself.
As a result New Zealand was able to largely re-open and is already well into its economic recovery - aside from international tourism. They're having a pretty good summer.
Your problem is that you started with a belief you wanted to justify and then you've embarrassed yourself by pretending you've proceeded rationally when actually you were just making excuses. Just admit to people how it is, you're a selfish asshole who doesn't want to obey restrictions that keep other people safe. Just say it, if it makes you feel bad that is, after all, your problem.
You list as a downside of New Zealand's approach unemployment. Scaled up, New Zealand would have about 600k unemployed people. But Florida actually has 650k. So that seems like instead of avoid unemployment, an economy devastated by pandemic but unwilling to lockdown has shrunk anyway.
So so far your cost is twenty thousand extra friends and relatives dead, and your "benefit" is fifty thousand extra unemployed.
Did you actually perform a cost/benefit analysis? I don't think you did.