The highest probability for success for the 'everyday person':
- Earn as much as you can from your own work. Take a 2nd job, change to a higher paying job, ask for more responsibility and a raise at your current job, go back to school for a more lucrative degree, ...
- Spend much less than you earn. Economize, share an apartment, buy an inexpensive car, shop at Trader Joe's and Costco, ....
- Learn how to invest. This is really important. The most deliberate and highest probability of ultimate success is likely mutual funds. Individual stocks can goose it, but should only a small portion of your wealth, as they start to bring a luck factor into the mix ...
- Protect your investments. Health insurance is really a must in the US, might be a must elsewhere. Work for a company that offers health insurance. Car insurance is a must. Other insurance is probably wise.
- Be patient. The compounding effect of investing takes a long time, but once it gets rolling, it's pretty much unstoppable.
Counterpoint: Your chances of dying before "making it big" and retiring are somewhere in the 1-in-10 range. Investing works mostly because of the current trend of artificially propping up the stock market. Any failure in your investment strategy leave you in the same boat as the current boomer retirees who are trying to get back in the workforce.
Not to mention, your life is going to be pretty miserable if you're working two jobs and spending a lot of effort on living frugal. There's just something off-putting about the thought of spending decades living frugally and working yourself to the bone so you can retire and finally have fun.
The exemplar folks who advocate doing this, a'la Mr. Money Mustache, are real pieces of work too. They tend to hide the fact that they went into the process with an inheritance to fund their their nest egg and are working nearly full time in their "retirement" as paid frugal advocates.
This is a good counterpoint and something my Dad points out often. He was very frugal, worked long hours and saved as much as he could so him and my mom could have a good retirement. She passed away at 42, so that never happened. He has so many regrets and wishes he invested more of his money & time in experiences with her while she was alive.
I think there needs to be a balance. The trend of working crazy hours to save as much as you can, living overly frugal, etc. will not always lead to happiness or fulfillment. I like to think of it as how can I optimize my time and finances for "life" rather than retirement. That doesn't mean I don't have a nest egg, it just means that not everything is going into that nest egg.
The trend of working crazy hours to save as much as you can, living overly frugal, etc. will not always lead to happiness or fulfillment.
This speaks to a common fallacy: the notion that happiness is a permanent achievement. Many people believe that you work hard so eventually you can achieve a position where you live "happily ever after". That's however not how the brain works. Happiness is a reward mechanism for effort bearing fruit. Once you stop doing things to become happy, eventually the happiness goes away because the brain adapts to its situation (this also works in reverse, you can get used to surprisingly horrible situations). The trick to being happy all the time is doing new things that make you happy all the time.
This is so true. A silly example. If you give a child a big bag of sweets all in one go he/she will be very happy for a little bit. But he cannot "consume" that happiness all in one go. The child's happiness level is saturated. So if you spread out the giving of sweets, the kid gets a constant trickle of smaller happy moments. Overall after all the sweets have gone, the kid who got given the sweets one by one, would extract more overall happiness from that bag than the one who had it all in one go.
> The trick to being happy all the time is doing new things that make you happy all the time.
Achieving "Financial Independence" -- when a portfolio meets all basic income needs -- can greatly enable this. The question is why people postpone their own "freedom" in favor of little wins now like trying expensive restaurants, etc.
This makes me feel really sad. While my grandparents were still alive, I put off visiting them for literal years. They lived overseas and I combated for too long trying to justify the cost of travel for the length of time that I could afford to take off work and see them...unfortunately they both passed away very quickly. I've since realized that if I had a chance to spend just a few days with them again, I wouldn't even think twice about spending the money to do it. A hard lesson to learn.
There are tons of people who spent their money living it up and got old and are really struggling and having difficult times with tons of regrets. I suspect more than those who saved and died young.
Yes, I agree. I am not proposing spending all of your money living it up, but to find a healthy balance. It doesn't have to go in the extreme in either direction.
That's right. For example, an expensive new car isn't much better than a 3 year old used one, and the difference is a big chunk of money to invest. (And also being able to invest money rather than spend it on the interest on car payments.)
This is a perfect example. I have had the same car for 6 years which I bought used and am hoping to squeeze another 5 out of it. Cars are one of those things I hate spending money on.
This is a good point. So far I have had no maintenance other than oil changes/tune-ups. Once things start breaking down to where I have to spend $$ to keep it going, that is when I will buy a newer used car. I also mainly use it for local around town driving. If I go on a long trip, I rent a car.
This all depends on how much happiness you derive from an expensive new car. My every day commute is my happy time because of that new car that I enjoy driving. YMMV
For the misers out there (like me) who don't like spending money, the way I avoid this is set X% to be automatically transferred to a savings account that is my fun money. It helps a lot because mentally I've written off the money immediately and I can enjoy spending it without worry.
This is also helpful if you are a spendthrift. Simply set %X to money that you are going to save. Put it someplace which will take at least a few days to access.
this happened to my family as well. The amount of money you can save by being frugal is very limited. IMO you're better off living a reasonable lifestyle and focus on income rather than expenditures.
Disagree, the amount that can be saved by being frugal is pretty great. Lots of people throw money at cars, eating out, expensive hobbies, new electronics/gadgets... etc. etc.
The point is find eliminate spending on stuff that doesn't really make you happier, and focus on the things that do. Also, find cheap hobbies, reading, etc. etc.
depends on your lifestyle and income I guess. If you have high income and high expenditures you have the choice between immediate pleasures or early retirement, and that choice isn't so clear cut imo.
for software guys like mmm I'd wager that it's better to take the time and energy used on frugality and instead try to develop alternative income streams, which ironically is exactly what mmm did.
If I recall right, Mr. M.M. defines retirement basically as financial independence, regardless of how you spend your time. Working because you want to is very different from working because you have to, so I'll buy it.
And as far as I know, he and his wife earned their money in tech jobs. The math is believable: let's say your household makes $130,000 a year (which I haven't done), and lives on $30,000 a year (which I've done... not fully voluntarily mind you but it wasn't hell on Earth either). You're saving $100,000 a year. In about 10 years you're a millionaire and could continue living on $30,000 forever without working. (Assuming 3% interest, which is doable without much investing effort, luck or expertise.) That's financial independence. Keep working at that point, and you only improve your lot. You can earn $10,000 a year as a full-time musician and live on $40,000. Or stay in tech and put 100% of your salary into principal while interest or dividends pay your living expenses.
Increase your monetary needs, i.e. your financial dependence, and it takes longer. Which is what most people do.
This is a very important point because taxes affect decisions around money.
For example, the ability to contribute to a 401k plan can defer $18,500 a year from taxes per person (more if over age 50, and more if there is a company match). For someone with a $130k gross, the employer having a 401k plan or not could affect the choice of which job they choose.
Only per person if you are are dual or multiple income. For some asinine reason 401k limits are not only very low, but don't take into account how many people are going to depend on that 401k.
In what world are 401k limits low? Between you and your employer, you can contribute up to $55.5k/yr to a 401k, more if you are over a certain age, I think it's 50.
The 4% withdrawal rate has been challenged, and one shouldn't use it as a guaranteed safe rate. It included massive bull runs that may not be repeated going forward. A lot of research has predicted lower real rates of return (around 4% average) in the next date.
Don't forget to include the percentage required to offset inflation.
EDIT: Missed that this was for a fixed period of time - 30 years.
But... what happens if you live more than 30 years past your retirement? It would really suck to retire on $750,000 (or $1M) savings at 45, and live to be 100.
Included in the rate I quoted, per the trinity study, although you might need to reduce your withdrawal rate below that some years depending on your asset holdings (see below for detailed info).
EDIT: Again, the rate quoted is for withdrawals in perpetuity. It doesn't guarantee your savings will outlive you, but it's highly confident it will.
I know it's not what most people want, but if you retired to a country with a low cost of living that $1M would be more than enough to live really comfortable till you die.
You can have lots of fun living frugal. Living frugal doesn't mean not having fun. Having fun is really cheap and free if you set your mind. Walking, hiking, bicycle ride, board & card games. Hanging out with friends at home and watching Netflix. Cooking at home and drinking at home. These are fun and cheap, the fun in it depends more so on the crowd. Going out to party can also be fun but this becomes the difference in spending $20 at home vs $200 in one night. Frugal is buying an old reliable honda/toyota for $3,000 vs picking up a $40,000 entry level benz. So what if you die before you make it? So what? We are all going to die.
> Going out to party can also be fun but this becomes the difference in spending $20 at home vs $200 in one night.
Agreed, but try not to be the person who refuses to ever go out because you're too focused on being frugal. A few times here and there won't really hurt you in the long run (and having fun with friends is important and worth the money), but making it a habit every night will. Just avoid the latter.
> Frugal is buying an old reliable honda/toyota for $3,000 vs picking up a $40,000 entry level benz.
Definitely agree. Americans in particular tend to buy way more car than they need, and the difference in price is on an order of magnitude that really does matter in the long run for many of us (i.e. if you invest that marginal $20k, $50k, or $100k and wait 10-30 years instead of buying a quickly depreciating fancy car).
> Americans in particular tend to buy way more car than they need, and the difference in price is on an order of magnitude that really does matter in the long run for many of us
Not only that, they trade it in (sometimes with negative equity) every ~5 years.
I buy old, used Lexus'. Pretty much all modern features, quiet, and a fraction of the new price. Change the oil, and the timing belt if applicable, it will last forever. But people treat cars so much like appliances these days.
5 years is when maintenance and repairs start happening more regularly. Because these are labor intensive, if one lives in an area where labor is expensive, or if the opportunity cost of one's own labor/time is expensive, does this still make sense?
Also, there are some really modern features like rear-view cameras, sonar, etc., which are pretty cheap in newer cars but almost impossible to find in older ones
5 years? Not really. Pretty much any Japanese car made in the last 20 years, and domestic in the last 8 should last 10 years; 100/150k before anything major is needed.
But, to run the numbers, get a the total cost of ownership (car payment, interest, and non-warranty or whatever maintenance) for a new/virtually new car, divide it over a span of the expected months of ownership (say, 60, 120, 180 months).
Do the same for a $5,000-$10,000 quality used car that you can pay with cash.
The hard part is estimating repair and maintenance costs, especially for non-car-persons. But I believe that car reliability is so good for recent cars that it's wasteful to purchase new.
eg:
$20,000 new car
36 month loan @ 2% = $28,072.59
Estimated average maintenance/year: $500
TCO 60/120/180: $30.5k/$33k/$35.5
$7,000 used car
Estimated maintenance/year: $1,000
TCO 60/120/180: $12k/$17k/$22k
Now an older car will generally cost more over time, eventually, than a new one. But every 10 years or so it's much cheaper to purchase a used one.
And if your stereo is replaceable you can get a rear-view camera hooked up if you desire. They also have wonky standalone ones.
Whoa, I'm not sure why almost 50% interest added to the cost didn't ring alarms earlier, you are right.
So the corrected 60/120/180: $23k, $25.5k, $28k.
And true, it will be worth something after 10 years or so, figure $10,000@60, $5,000@120, $3,000@180 but it varies vastly with the brand, mileage, and condition.
Corrected again: $13k, $20.5k, $25k
Damn, looks like it's close to a wash after 10 years. But, consider that the used car is a Lexus with heated/cooled seats, leather, nice audio, power seats and windows, automatic wipers, etc. etc. and the new car is a base model Toyota Corolla.
Plus, the use car will not be worth zero, hopefully, after 10 years. I guess 60/120/180 would be something like $3k/$2k/$2k:
So for the used car: $9k, $15k, $19k
So a bit ahead again.
It looks like with these napkin calculations the $20-25k mark is the break-even point at around 10 years. So any new car more expensive than that is going to be more costly, obviously, relative to a used car.
The modern day combustion engine is super reliable if maintained. You just have to maintain it.
I drove my last car to almost 300k miles and my current is at 240k miles. Of course there are major maintenance items but well worth it. When my car hit 200k I changed the timing belt, water pump, seals, etc. This is on a Lexus LS430. As expensive as it can get. Cost $1800. If I had a cheap car, it will be a $1000 job. Now you have to understand. Do I go get another car or spend $1800? Easy $1800. I'm at 40k more miles. What else have I changed? oil, brakes, tires. That's it. Nothing else!
Does it have issues? Meh. Navigation sometimes acts up and freezes which I suspect is the DVD but I can't be bothered. I use my cellphone in those rare moments I need it. Everything else works. All power seats, windows, heated seats, traction, etc And here's the kicker, it's a 2001. 17yrs old.
Most cars will hit 200k miles, some reliable ones like toyota, lexus, honda, will hit 300k easy with minimal maintenance. I rather spend $5k-$6k and add another 100k miles. :D
spending a lot of effort on living frugal. There's just something off-putting about the thought of spending decades living frugally
There's a whole range there. You don't have to live on ramen. But you can be really aggressive about insurance premiums, utility bills, etc. You can learn home & auto repair & maintenance. You can make major life structure choices (Can your family live with one car?). These all can make a huge impact on your finances, and don't hurt the way perpetually living like a college student does.
Counterpoint: Your chances of dying before "making it big" and retiring are somewhere in the 1-in-10 range.
If this is the "get rich without getting particularly lucky" advice, perhaps we should assume it's also the "get rich without getting particularly unlucky" advice. There's an endless list of terribly unlucky things that would ruin just about anyone, but don't generally bear planning for.
As someone who knows a lot about car and motorcycle maintenance, repair, and modification, this is not good advice, and I see it all over.
You're far better off simply buying a new, cheap compact and taking it to Walmart for oil changes. You will come out far ahead of the person who invests money in tools and space, and time into learning how to do something that is so easily outsourced.
The opportunity cost of maintenance is high. Don't get involved unless it's going to be a hobby that brings you satisfaction in and of itself.
Sure, learn some very basics so you don't get blatantly ripped off by unscrupulous shops (bringing you a filthy air filter that doesn't even fit your car is one example), but don't invest much time or energy.
Care to actually back up this claim with some numbers? As someone who buys reliable used cars (Hondas), maintains them himself, and owns them for 10+ years at a time this doesn't seem to be true.
For just the depreciation cost of a new vehicle one could purchase every home auto repair tool they would likely need for a very long time.
I actually had meant to type "home & auto repair...". But anyway, IMO most of the value is learning what's going on in the car and the process of diagnosis. Many, many shops employ the "speculatively replace X and see if it fixes Y" iterative process, and being able to avoid that whole process is useful.
You are right, the cost savings on doing your own oil changes isn't particularly significant. Although it's also worth pointing out oil changes are the most commoditized, sometimes-loss-leader service in the business- if there's a cost savings to be had, it's in moderate repairs that are a little more involved but don't require lots of equipment. Replacing an oxygen sensor or alternator, for example.
It's really funny to read that. It's probably very american to think 2 cars per family is the norm. I think if I group the 10 adults I see the most on average, we own 2 cars together. And we are all between 30 and 55.
This depends on where you live though. Midwest basically required a car, living in Seattle and SF my wife and I never need a car. It’s not always as simple as grouping a population. America is big and diverse.
I just came back from the valley, and I get that the american society and infrastructure is encouraging the to use a car. Like Australia.
I also get that, living in a city in France, it's easier to avoid having a car.
yet I note that you could have a motorbike. You could not have kids. You could move close to your work. You could move in an area requiring less car. You could change your job to one not needing a car. You could bike. You could care pool with friends/neighbors/coworkers. You could use public transports. Etc.
But the car is an important artifact of the american culture. You kinda build the country around it, not the other way around.
Keep in mind, the shift from farming being a major employment sector happened while the current US infrastructure was being built. The highways and population distribution were in part because of that.
Also the US is one of the world's largest in area, and while urbanization is being pushed due to changes in the labor needs, it's something that happens over time not over night.
As for "you could do X" most of your statements aren't really proof of an American obsession with cars, just a different infrastructure choice relative to other nations.
The US has 27% more cars than France per capita. That's statistically significant and reflects difference in city planning/culture, but IDK that I'd draw the same conclusions as you.
Why is not having a car an ideal for you? Why do you have to bike? Can't you just walk places?
I don't have a car because society is telling me to have a car. I have a car because it's faster to get places I want to go; it's damn hot in the summer; and it's great for carrying around purchases and the family.
As a childless American with 3 cars, 1 motorcycle, and 3 bicycles... I must say that plenty of folks would find your "don't have kids" comment equally bizarre.
And on the flipside, cars are cheaper than kids :)
My reading of the GP's comment was that those were not suggestions, but a mere observation, where out of many possible and viable alternatives, one is utterly dominant to the point where the others aren't generally considered as alternatives anymore.
Meh I live in the Midwest, in an area that pretty much requires a car. Yet my use is extremely limited (a few thousand miles per year). Mostly going to stores and back as I work from home.
Yet we travel around the area to state parks, bike trails, etc.. every weekend. Even if I lived in a city, that doesn't mean I would want to be confined to the same 10 square miles my entire life. We live in a vast, beautiful country. Why isolate yourself to a tiny little block? Life is too short for that.
I guess you are convinced your generalization is sound in basis. Not everyone can afford to move closer to work, that’s a silly assumption. Big cities that lend well to public transportation are not affordable for everyone. You can’t always move closer to work, what if your spouse and you work on opposite parts of a region? I suppose next solution is one finds a new job or quits. Life’s not as simple as your naive point of view indicates.
"Norm" is probably more than two cars. I have a 17 year-old. When he gets his license, we have a car waiting for him (OK: it needs a bunch of repairs, but whatever). Right now, it's a pain in the ass to drive him places (like to & from work).
In my neck of the woods, the average is probably 4-6 cars per family.
National statistics disagree with you. IDK what your neck of the woods is, but there's millions of people who live in urban areas in which car ownership is completely foreign that bring those averages down.
Depends on which statistic you look at, I guess.
One line says the US has 765 motor vehicles per 100 people and the next one down says it has 816 motor vehicles per 1,000 people.
816 per 1000 sounds reasonable when you consider how many are childern, live in big cities, are in the military, etc... There are some pretty big classes of people who own no vehicles whatsoever.
If you look at married suburban households the number will almost certainly be over 2. The most common case involves one person driving to work while the other shuffles kids around or has their own job. The public transport option may exist, but is likely inadequate (excessively slow) and undesirable.
And tens of millions out here in the tules who need a car to get around. Otherwise, it’s back to the horse and wagon. There’s no public transportation, and there won’t be any until the tules are gone.
I completely agree, it's kind of nuts. It was only maybe sixty years ago that nobody but the rich could really afford two cars, and yet here we are today where it's basically taken for granted as a basic requirement of life in much of America. Which is why I wrote it that way.
Vast majority by land area. Per person it isn't so clear cut. Many people live in the city and don't own a car because using a car in the city is somewhat impractical and the public transport options are sufficient.
Or maybe a modern car and a classic car? I have a classic car and a few classic motorcycles. Great fun, easy to work on, parts are cheap, no MOT, no road tax, and low insurance premiums. What’s not to love?
> They tend to hide the fact that they went into the process with an inheritance to fund their their nest egg and are working nearly full time in their "retirement" as paid frugal advocates.
Whoah, do you have evidence of this? I mean, yeah, some people have certain advantages, but if they are being paid for advocacy and if it's a trust-fund baby thing that would be really interesting.
On balance though, I'm not really opposed to a message to live frugally. We live in a culture that continuously bombards us with materialistic advertising, and this doesn't really lead to long-time happiness. I'm skeptical that being frugal implies some kind of deprivation or overwork. In fact if you're frugal then theoretically you can afford to work less.
I found it on his own blog, though it's almost impossible to locate now. Basically he inherited a family house, lived in it for a few years, and sold it for a large sum of money (in addition to holding a $100,000 + a year job and saving from it).
As for the paid advocacy, have a look at their financials. You'll see a non-trivial amount of income from advertising on the website and speaking.
EDIT: The house wasn't inherited - he got it from a failed house building business. It's unclear if the costs of building came out of the business funds or his own funds.
> I'm skeptical that being frugal implies some kind of deprivation or overwork.
OP was advocating working multiple jobs and living frugally.
He went into the house building business with one other business partner. This partner generally failed to meet his end of the obligations, and MMM took a big loss in the process. Getting the house out of the business was not a big win, it was merely a partial recoup of his own invested capital.
Micropayments were going to be the wave of the future back around 2000. It never happened. People want intangible stuff for what they perceive as free.
I think when people describe 'the ideal way to live financially' they are looking at the problem as though they have to solve it all in one go, all at once. That's overwhelming, often leads to a sort of, yo-yo pattern of extreme frugality and extreme luxury.
Frugal living are habits that accumulate gradually, as are any other habits one aims to develop. Eventually you don't have to think about them, things converge naturally. Some people might enjoy working two jobs, because everything syncs together that way.
Periods that are more frugal help you appreciate the pleasures of higher-end lifestyles while realizing that not having them isn't a catastrophe.
Plus the hedonic treadmill is a bitch. Someone earlier in this thread regretted his parents not having experienced certain things. Truly, it's a crying shame to die without having had truly fancy delicious dinners, for example -- that one time is almost priceless. But once a month is a nice, expensive habit. Twice a week you don't care anymore.
I think it's only bad when you don't feel like you have any control over it, and you feel more like it controls you. There's the long term goal you want, but the lack of having control leads to extremes, all of these things increase the number of variable you feel compelled to reason about, to control. With finances, food, 'stuff', that can lead to overload, stress, hence, oscillating between opposites, lacking self control, self direction, autonomy, etc. These are all things people need to feel secure and stable when they have to operate as mostly independent entities.
> I have no mustache and was born with no silver spoon, Had to work my way through college.
My parents said this quite a bit.
Of course, my dad did blue collar labor for an inflation-adjusted $30 per hour (the same position today pays around $11 an hour), plus overtime and a pension. My mom was a part time waitress to pay her way through 4 years of college.
It was surprising how quickly they stopped saying that when they looked at the cost of a new house because they had to move. Or when they looked at what it would cost to put their granddaughter through the same college my mom went to.
There is a certain amount of inflating expectations going on, IMO. I'd bet a lot of the people who worked their way through college, went to community college. Also, even comparing like for like- my father attended Berkeley in the 60's. I think he'd be one of the first to tell you it wasn't quite the same world-famous ultra-elite school kids are applying to today.
Similar to complaints about how one's parents were able to afford a house in Silicon Valley, why can't I? Well, gee, fifty years ago Silicon Valley was an orchard.
It's also generational because of the increasing costs of college, not just the reputation of certain schools.
I started college in about 1992. My in-state tuition at the University of Utah -- a major university, not elite, but not community college -- was, I think ( * ), less than about $1500, which is about $2700 in today's dollars. In-state tuition today is $8,824, reflecting a substantial reduction in state support -- a 3.2x real dollar increase.
People in my generation and older who say "work your way through college", or "don't take out loans" need to make sure they've updated their mental model of the cost of college.
It is impossible to 'work your way through college' now unless you are making $50k/year part-time. State schools start around $10k/year just for tuition. All in costs are $30k/year+.
I'm so glad I went to school 15 years ago. Students today are totally screwed.
If in-state tuition is 11k (my case), you don't think you can make that while going to school? Granted, I worked and of course, there were other expenses, so I didn't get out loan free. But it's possible if you're some sort of penny-pinching masochist...
The math is very simple, you need about $30k/year which is $50k pre-tax. That is 50 hours a week at $20/hour with no weeks of vacation + school.
It is extremely difficult to make $50k/year with no degree or experience. That is almost the house hold median income in the US (2 people working). (Currently: $59k/year)
> The math is very simple, you need about $30k/year which is $50k pre-tax.
This is wrong.
$30k - $12k standard deduction = 18k taxable, 0% tax on 0-$10k, 12% tax on $10k-$18k = -960 taxes owed, then you get 2500 American Opportunity Credit or $2000 Life Long Learning Credit. So if you earn 30k as a "full time student" you would take home ~$31k less 0-10% state income tax on $18k
Looks like the median for tuition and fees at state 4-year schools is around $10k. My contention: if you can make ~$15k per year, you can put yourself through school.
First, you can start at community college, which is very cheap in most states. And many states have a deal where you are guaranteed admission and transfer to the 4-year system if you get good grades at community college. So that'll save you some money.
Second, many states (and possibly the Federal government) offer grants to help defray these costs. You can also apply to tons of private scholarships.
Third, you can live very frugally in terms of lodging and food. Not fun, but doable.
Fourth, you can take out a little bit in loans. If you take out $5k / year in loans, you'll have $20k at graduation. Hardly crippling.
I actually did this, though I also had the GI Bill so I didn't have to do the loans part, so don't tell me it's not possible. It's not easy or fun, and I'm not saying we can't improve it, but today's students are hardly totally screwed.
College tuition has sort of switched to "sliding scale". For example, 40% of UC Berkeley undergraduate students pay zero in tuition despite the sticker price.
Berkeley is an exception. Most state schools do not offer nearly that level of aid. If you are upper middle class (i.e. parents make $70Ksh-$150ksh), and you don't have exceptional grades, you will pay the sticker price and you will leave school with $20k-$75k of debt. That is before adjusting for the rapidly rising price of college which will no doubt continue rising at 7%-10% per year over that 4 year period.
Honestly, leaving school with $20k-30k in debt is hardly the end of the world. That's what, $200 - 300 / month? Seems well worth it for a 4-year education of even decent quality. Beats the alternative.
Note: I'm not saying that we shouldn't do a better job of funding higher education, but this level of debt is not crippling. The real issue to me is people who run up high five figure or low six figure levels of debt for low-quality degrees or institutions, or who don't finish, or who are being trained for a career that will never make enough to have that be a positive ROI.
While students may be especially fortunate to live in California, my understanding is few even in other states at the $75k family income level pay sticker price. Note also that median family income in the US is around 60k. For example, at UW, CollegeSimply reports the net price for a family income of $48,001 to $75,000 is $10,231: http://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/washington/university-...
I, within the last decade, watched a housing boom in my hometown go bust. I watched hundreds of houses stay vacant for many years. And it wasn't just houses going vacant, it was even many more houses being vacated because they were bought by people who built houses.
Watching something that once was a "sure bet" go bust is very humbling. Watching those speculators go bankrupt by the hundreds is very sad. It made me realize that this particular dinosaur could be very real.
Long term investment isn’t speculation. That’s why we call it investment.
Yeah, if you are dumping money into a bubble hoping to cash out at the top, you are taking a major risk. If you’re investing long term in an asset with literally centuries of history of growth, then you’re probably going to be okay.
And realistically, what’s the alternative? I guess government bonds?
Long term investment is speculation if it's predicated on an economic system that requires infinitely increasing growth on a completely finite planet with diminishing resources and no clear guarantee that we can fix any overshoot by going interplanetary in a cost-efficient way, or that technology will always magically step in to create enough new efficiencies to further exploit the resources that are present.
I’m not sure how to formulate a response to this. It’s so utterly misplaced. This is like saying that investment isn’t possible because eventually entropy will consume the universe. Yes, in some sense this is true, but in a much more practical sense you should still be planning for your retirement.
Even if you believe that in your lifetime the human race will collapse under the strain we’re creating on the planet, investing is still the appropriate hedge for your doomsday “die in a catastrophe” plans. You can refuse to call it “investing”, but then you’re just arguing for a pointless definition that no one else really agrees with.
I have a little retirement fund, and I also think that if I focused too much on it, I would neglect enjoying our present level of civilization while it lasts. You're the one arguing to absurdity (heat death of the universe), because it really does matter if for all intents and purposes one will likely not get to enjoy retirement investments due to social collapse. It's not a far away possibility, but very likely to begin within my lifetime. You see, it doesn't take depleting everything on the planet, but just enough so that the growth engine based on debt stalls. Inevitable conflicts will follow. Climate change is already causing considerable financial damage and instability, and that is only going to grow more pronounced. On the current emissions route, most of the land closer to the equator than Canada or New Zealand may be barely inhabitable by 2080 (At around +3 or +4 C). There's already trillions of dollars in property value at risk just from flooding that's basically certain in places like Miami, let alone whole latitudes. Some tangible investments will still be valuable, but the idea that the market will keep churning out monetary growth indefinitely is ludicrous. My investment hedge is only for very unlikely scenarios, such as plentiful fusion energy, or exponentially cheaper carbon capture being developed in time to prevent the global financial shock that will happen when the market realizes that whole latitudes of property value are simply disappearing in several decades, or that trillions will need to be spent to mitigate the natural disasters that are coming. It's not a one-day Rapture to expect, but decades of decline that await.
Waiting for the "Treasury Notes are assuming the government will still exist 10 years from now" from people who apparently hoard cash in 1.2% Ally Savings Accounts
I regularly hear "what if the stock market goes down 80%?" Then I'm totally screwed anyway, whether I'm in the market or not, because everything else will collapse as well.
So there's no point in worrying about such scenarios.
At this current point in time, you are both correct. It's gotten to the point where I'm genuinely starting to wonder if this state might be permanent, even though it's theoretically "impossible" because there will "always" be a reversion to the mean.
Yeah. It's gone on long enough that I'm wondering the exact same thing. Of course, if it doesn't, that return to mean is going to be a real bitch to ride out.
Printing money can achieve both of those, but it isn't necessarily sustainable. When I was younger, I would have said it isn't sustainable, but now I'm not so sure.
>Your chances of dying before "making it big" and retiring are somewhere in the 1-in-10 range.
I'd like to see how you came to this conclusion.
Painting with broad strokes, one can retire after working in tech for 15-25 years. Start at 25 and they are done by 50. Current death rates for dying between 25 and 50 are less than 0.7% [0]; that's not even correcting for the fact that the wealthy likely have a reduced mortality rate [1].
I don't think that's the right way to look at the graph. It says that out of 100k 15-24 yr olds 74 died, and also out of 100k 85-1xx yr olds 13k died. This is purely a measure of death rates and doesn't take the age distribution into account.
this means that out of 100k 25-50 yr olds 726 died during 2016. This is the probability that you will die during this year, given that you are a 25-50 year old, which is different from the probability that you will die before the age of 50. (the prior number ignores the cumulative probability that you have died as a <50 yr old during all years prior to 2016)
Given that all of us will die, the only question is the age at which we die. The conditional probability that, given you have died, you are under the age of 50 is exactly what we should be looking at.
>the prior number ignores the cumulative probability that you have died as a <50 yr old during all years prior to 2016
Ah you're right about that. Looks like I'm probably way off. This random thing google turned up [0] says that a 25 y/o male has like a ~70% chance to make it to 50!
>Given that all of us will die
Something doesn't feel right about this, but I can't figure out what. I'll let it simmer and assume you're correct in the meantime.
Start at say 25 and that's going to give you a much better than 1:10 chance of being able to very comfortably retire someplace cheap. If nothing else 1 year of work = 1.5 years not working, but at 4% return (over inflation) and 15% investment taxes you can retire in 15 years.
I'm currently working on this. In 2016, I saved 60% ($36,000). In 2017, I saved 65% ($42,250). This year, I am working on saving 70%-75% ($46,200). I'm 23 and planning on transitioning from devops to a software engineer role by 25-26 (working on the skills I lack!). I never need anything and am extremely content! I think I might be able to get to 80% but that will cut into some things, so still working on 75% for this year.
The reality is you need to increase your top line earning power. Working for decades earning average compensation for your location will get you an average outcome (which means a late in life, short retirement, at best). You need to super charge your earnings and savings for a number of years. Ideally through doing higher value work, as opposed to simply working more hours.
If you’re not making enough, and having financial flexibility is important to you, then considering a career change is in order. You might need to go down before you go up. Invest in yourself through education and experience and leverage that to get into a higher paying path (see more on this here: https://ramenretirement.com/2018/04/30/wealth/)
Once you have some real savings and wealth, then it’s all about investing it properly to generate inflation protected passive income (IPPI). I prefer real estate for this (see here for more on RE investing: https://ramenretirement.com/2018/03/18/ultimate-guide-to-rea...). I don’t think enough people consider alternative investments. Putting all your eggs in public markets is a low cash flow proposition, along with lower long term returns (see how returns compare here: https://ramenretirement.com/2018/03/18/ultimate-guide-to-rea...). If you have excess savings, you don’t need all that liquidity and should consider less liquid investments that might have higher returns: https://ramenretirement.com/2018/02/23/youre-too-liquid/
A simple investment thesis of investing in a low index fund (S&P 500) which has yielded about a 9% return over 50 years would product result most would find supremely satisfactory. Consider this, $10,000 compounded over 50 years without any additional capital and without taking any capital out would yield a return north of $25 million. However, the hardest part is not reacting emotionally to market dips and irrationally withdrawing your funds before the compounding machine really works. The other challenge is no one wants to get rich slow.
There's nothing off-putting about living frugally and taking care of your financial health. Working yourself to the bone is not necessary, but stopping and forming good financial habits that last a lifetime is a great thing to do. Just like there's nothing off-putting about becoming fit and taking care of your physical health. However you can over-do it on diets and exercise too.
Look at the S&P 500 for the last 100 years. Does it always recover. Your scenario is far out and would require the entire society to change. Might as well take advantage of the fact you know this information, if true.
> Not to mention, your life is going to be pretty miserable if you're working two jobs and spending a lot of effort on living frugal.
Agreed. A few follow-up points:
1. Frugality isn't a binary state. There's a balance to be struck. Some people really do waste money on frivolous things that don't actually bring them much real satisfaction, and in that sense being more frugal is definitely worth it. But once you've eliminated most of the excessive spending habits, the payoff of frugality really starts to drop aggressively as you cut out more and more (diminishing returns). Skipping your $4 latte isn't really gonna change the game for you if you're trying to become Bill Gates.
2. Frugality to me is kind of the "lowest common denomitator" of financial strategies, which is why so many "experts"/"gurus" tend to preach it. "Spend less than you earn" is a dead-simple concept and worthy advice to a certain extent. But trying to increase wealth more and more by cutting out less and less is not really a great long-term strategy, especially if you're interested in achieving significant gains in wealth. It's arguably much more effective to invest time and energy into things that will increase your earning potential over time rather than fretting about small guilty pleasures or trying to squeeze a couple more basis points of return out of your portfolio of mutual funds. Things like: gaining a valuable skill that's in-demand; honing and improving those skills over time; taking on leadership/management responsibilities; starting a business; meeting and forming relationships with people who are smart & successful or at least aspiring to be; etc.
The reason frugality is so fundamental is because everyone needs at least a little of it, no matter how much they make. Just as with the diet saying "You can't outrun your fork", lifestyle inflation will perpetually dog your every increase in income, until you learn some form of frugality.
Also, after being a small time landlord for a while, I've decided the true magic of interest is, over those ten years you didn't have to lift a finger. If you've got money to park while the rest of your life is chaos, interest is the totally-hands-free option, and I am coming to see that as magical.
Recently my wife and I were discussing one of the big benefits of rural living being far less easy access to impulse $4 lattes, In-N-Out drive thrus and the like. A trip to a major suburb becomes a planned event (and more meaningful), just like those $100 steak dinners.
My wife and I lived in a small town about 20-30 minutes from the nearest major city. This was enough, for us, to significantly change our eating habits. There was a nearby small-town grocery/post office/liquor store where you could grab small things, but if you needed anything beyond the basics, you had to make a trip into the city. When it's a 1hr round trip, you're not just going to go grab McDonalds, especially when there was shitty weather. It was great, and I'm going to be trying to re-adopt that soon when I start working from home again. (She had to commute to town for work when we were out there, I didn't... which is why she was way more interested in moving into the city than I was :))
If your just slamming it down thoughtlessly, then yeah it's probably worthless.
Your mileage will vary. Personally, I love a good latte: it gives me a great deal of pleasure, especially when I can hang out at an inspiring 3rd place, read a good book or get some work done.
Health insurance is a must in US because the entire country systematically doesn’t give a shit about how inefficient it is. I guess some people make fat bucks at the expense of people’s lives.
My pay + company benefit == $650/month to Anthem.
I still end up paying $5000 for all pre-pregnancy costs out of pocket and the baby isn’t even here yet.
In Australia it would be 10% of that, purely because they got their shit together a long time ago.
In the US insurance companies themselves are meant to fight to keep prices down, but right now due to a miscalculation during the creation of Obamacare ("Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act") they're incentivized to INCREASE medical costs...
Why? The 80/20 Rule ("Medical Loss Ratio" rule).
> The 80/20 Rule generally requires insurance companies to spend at least 80% of the money they take in from premiums on health care costs and quality improvement activities. The other 20% can go to administrative, overhead, and marketing costs.
Meaning insurance company executive wages can only come out of 20% of your premium, so if the CEO wants that pay increase they have to increase overall healthcare expenditure, premiums, and by extension their 20% cut.
While the 80/20 rule was a fantastic idea on paper, it changed insurance company's incentives in such a way so that premium increases are good for them.
You might be thinking "but in a competitive landscape people would just switch!" but there's nothing competitive about health insurance, people cannot even pick their own (their employer does) and most employers only offer two of the larger ones from that state.
So insurance in the US wants to take even more than 20% as profit? Am I correct in thinking that this actually makes socialized systems more efficient? They never have to front any profit overhead.
No, they want to increase how much that 20% share is worth.
If premiums increase from e.g. $500 to $600/month, the insurance company makes $20 more per insured via their 20% share.
The other 80% ($480) really does go towards medical costs, but the issue is that insurance companies aren't incentivized to help you keep those medical costs down (via negotiation with hospitals/drug companies), but may be incentivized to increase them. That's a problem.
In an ideal world insurance company's incentives and their customer's goals should be aligned (e.g. both save money). That makes them the ultimate advocate for you and fighting to keep healthcare costs low, that isn't what is happening (either before or after Obamacare).
I’m in New Zealand, have a six month old son, we paid $0 from finding out she was pregnant up until going home after she stayed three days in the hospital to get comfortable with feeding him (there were no complications, no caesarean).
All checkups + scans pre-birth were free.
It would have cost money only if we decided to go for a private obstetrician, I think it’s the same in Australia.
So if it’s one of the 90% of births with no complications, going for the free public option just makes sense.
Even simpler, it is an equation with three variables: income, expenses, and rate of return on savings. An important point is that you do not need to hyper-optimize all three variables to achieve a good outcome, which makes it adaptable to many lifestyles and circumstances. Hyper-frugality is not the only path. There are multiple viable strategies that can be built around optimizing one or two variables and paying minimal attention to the others.
Frugality (minimizing expenses) is the easiest strategy to execute and it covers the broadest range of individual situations.
I know some engineers that take the approach of aggressively maximizing income, which requires a different kind of investment/sacrifice, allowing them to achieve their goals without hyper-optimizing expenses or rate of return. I would make the observation that this strategy tends to take a human toll, so not for everyone.
The rarest strategy in the wild, because it is the most technical to execute, is hyper-optimizing rate of return. I only know a couple examples of this, including one who went from -$50k (debt with no assets) to financial independence in ten years (and handily beat the S&P500 every single year) on a modest engineer's salary. This requires a deep investment in understanding a foreign domain almost no one is familiar with and achieving a degree of mastery. It has the highest payoff long-term but it also requires the most diligence and effort upfront. Making this work requires an unusual kind of person.
Being frugal and investing in index funds is definitely the path of least resistance for many people, but many people (or their partners!) do not want to live a hyper-frugal lifestyle. Fortunately, there are other options available with their own set of tradeoffs and engineers are well-positioned to take advantage of them.
As an investing noob, most of my money is parked in low interest savings accounts. How much of my life savings should I park in index funds? Any smart investing resources/guides you recommend? Thanks for your time.
6 months of living expenses in liquid cash (savings accounts, rotating CD ladder, money-market funds, etc.).
Any money that you'll need in the next 5 years in low-risk, non-volatile investments (eg. bonds, T-bills). This usually applies to retirees, but also to folks like entrepreneurs or commission salespeople that have unsteady incomes.
Only invest in real-estate, individual stocks, crypto, precious metals, foreign currencies, collectibles, etc. if you know what you're doing. If it's not your full-time job (eg. a venture capitalist or real estate developer), no more than 10% of your net worth in these investments.
Hmm... I’m still sitting here waiting for that “magic” of compounding interest to take effect. So often HN (and r/personalfinance) investment advice reminds me of the ol’ Draw the Rest of the Owl meme[1]. Just “do mutual funds” and you’ll one day be a millionaire because Compounding Interest. Ok well thanks to a few recessions, poor timing of grad school and bouts of unemployment, my retirement is not much more than what I put into it. So there seems to be some other secret step between “buy mutual funds” and “retire comfortably“ that I’m missing...
'bouts of unemployment' this is bad luck and you are correct that it can take the wind out of anyone's sails.
Looking at the math, it's not difficult to find a mainstream mutual fund like FCNTX that has been pretty big for a long time. Since 1993, 25 years ago and encompassing both the dot com bust and the sub-prime catastrophe, it has returned, on an annualized basis, around 9%. I use that example because it's a pretty mainstream fund that has been highly rated by Morningstar most of those years, so it isn't hard to identify it as a fairly safe place to get excellent returns. I've been in it for most of those 25 years and when I first chose it, I was for sure a novice at investing. Note that today, it is only one of several funds in multiple sectors that I hold, I've diversified over time.
There really is no way to get rich quickly that does not involve a large dose of luck. The <30 multi-millionaires in Silicon Valley tilted the odds in their favor via a variety of means, but I'd guess that for every example of those people, you'd find dozens who moved to the area, worked their asses off in startups for a few years and then crashed and either settled for a regular job or moved elsewhere.
I'm interested in this guy's[0][1] approach to take most of the downside risk out of recessions/bear markets/crashes compared to buy-and-hold. Basically, start with a diversified portfolio, and when any of them closes below their monthly 12mo moving average, sell it and buy treasuries.
I'm sure there are thousands of more sophisticated models out there, but the nice thing about this is its simplicity - minimal management, just rebalance once a month according to a single rule and forget about it. Looks like it works well, backtested against lots of historical market data sets.
Look into the options market. Especially in choppy markets you can make a lot of money.
Edit: To add to this instead of using the mutual funds as a store value and being scared of holding stocks, you can buy puts as protection on your stock. Or you can buy spreads on stocks you like.
Huh? Was that trying to say save money at the supermarket? Because those are two stores I don't associate with saving money, they're stores that offer premium products at reasonable prices, but they aren't going to compete with actual discount retailers.
It is just really odd examples/usage in that context...
Yeah, for sure you can find $60k diamond rings and $30k cognac at Costco (not kidding, see Costco in M.V.). But you can also get the least expensive per weight corn flakes, milk, potatoes and beans. And croissants...
I used those examples as a versus to the daily $7 Starbucks breakfast that many young folks seem to go for.
NYC is definitely an N=1, most other places in the country Trader Joe's is quite expensive. The food is high quality (and value good) but in absolute terms, more expensive than discount supermarkets.
Where I live in California, my options are Safeway, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, and a co-op more-organic-than-thou each egg has a name tag and resume type place. Trader Joe's is by far the cheapest of them all. The fact that Trader Joe's fixes their prices nationwide makes them much cheaper than the alternatives in expensive metros.
- Make sure you don't marry, or if you do absolutely don't have kids.
- Become a hermit
Saving money was so easy before I had kids. Once you have kids you need a car big enough to transport them. You need a house big enough to hold them. The missus insists that just going camping isn't really a vacation and they need to see some sights (real travel). And travel with kids isn't cheap. You gotta start getting the family insurance plans and the million little school fees and your bigger house has more stuff to break in it and the kids break stuff... Worst of all you multiply your chances of having some big medical problem--the death knell for any frugal living plan--the more people you have to care for.
Also, Costco doesn't really save you that much money unless you were the kind of person who always bought the top-of-the-line premium whatever. For people who typically only buy the base model widget the price is pretty similar or slightly more expensive typically.
I do agree with your assessment that kids are the biggest expense and possibly the biggest joy in life. Well it’s a risk and difficulty worth for many of us. But do your math.
After certain age family is the biggest and maybe the only close friend.
Social ties are important and usually healthy. Having kids and family can also be very motivating. After all, why do we live?
"Work for a company that offers health insurance. "
Small nitpick: You can always buy your own insurance. Obamacare made it harder to buy good high-deductible plans for yourself but even so, you can get your own directly. Don't go without health insurance, especially catastrophic coverage, unless rent and food are all you can afford.
I think the most valuable advice in getting rich is from people who are moderately rich.
Advice from people who aren’t rich is stupid.
Advice from billionaires seems irrelevant because their circumstances are so exceptional.
How did the friend of a friend make $20million ... there’s an interesting question.
I could give you advice on how to not get rich.... just make what are in hindsight a constant flow of wrong decisions about things that could have led to financial gain. I’m an expert at that.
He was pushed out of the startup he co-founded (Epinions) and walked away with very little. He then sued the the VCs [1], leading to an out-of-court settlement, and used that settlement money to start AngelList.
So he went from being not-rich 10 years ago, to being very rich now due to his success with AngelList and related investments.
I think the advice he shares in this post is consistent with how he's built his own success. Both Naval and his brother, Kamal, have long been writing and speaking about concepts like stoicism, mindfulness and other techniques for developing good judgement and emotional health, so it's likely these ideas were imparted via their family and have influenced their thinking for a long time.
My guess: looking at his investment track record, Naval is probably quite rich (8-9 figures) and he spends a lot of his time dealing with other pretty rich people, both successful founders and other rich investors. Just a guess though.
Investor in Uber, Twitter, Postmates, Yammer, and about 60 others. Wouldn’t surprise me if that’s a fraction of the total. Not to mention cofounding AngelList. I doubt he’s scraping by :)
I really doubt you can get rich by not being lucky. I was like Naval and thought many of my achievements were due to sheer hard work. And then I read this article about luck:
And I got the book mentioned in the article - The Luck Factor by Richard Wiseman.
One of the exercises in the book is to think over how things have unfolded in your life - what would have happened if you took left inside of right when you met your partner or got a great job? And when I thought it over, there has been some element of luck involved. At my first job I wasn't supposed to be there for an interview but went along with a roommate as I had nothing better to do.
Now I believe sure you can work hard and do most of the work in Naval's list but all of it will ensure you are lucky when you run into one of the long term people in a long term industry. And everything will fall in place.
I've always had a theory that there are some variable luck factors that we can control.
Meeting driven, creative and important people is a huge multiplier for luck. It, perhaps more than anything I've done, has changed my life for the better.
I had a solid job in Mobile, AL working for an ad agency. Although, it felt isolating from the tech world. To combat that I started a publication interviewing designers and entrepreneurs just to stay plugged into the community.
So much good has come from a couple years and dozens of interviews. I met a co-founder, was paid to host a similar podcast and have made a ton of friends around the world. Not to mention, I might not be working as a designer had I never started doing interviews.
> To combat that I started a publication interviewing designers and entrepreneurs just to stay plugged into the community.
> So much good has come from a couple years and dozens of interviews. I met a co-founder, was paid to host a similar podcast and have made a ton of friends around the world. Not to mention, I might not be working as a designer had I never started doing interviews.
This is a really cool idea that makes perfect sense. It's basically a way to get plugged into an ecosystem of effective and interesting people. And everyone loves to talk about themselves, so I'm guessing it wasn't too difficult to find interviewees (at least once you got past the first barrier of being a publication with no history).
How did you get the idea? Did you have any relevant experience prior to starting the interviews and then making a publication out of it?
What do you think might be some less intensive alternatives? Starting a publication is not for everyone.
Appreciate the interest! The idea came from a combination of a few different factors.
I was bored. There were only a handful of designers and no tech people in Mobile. I was (and still am) a big fan of Andrew Warner and Mixergy. I was listening to a show and had this epiphany—what's stopping me from doing something similar?
Nothing.
Sure I couldn't go out and interview Bill Gates. But I had friends that were working on interesting things and started with them. I worked in various editor positions for the school paper in college and had an interest in niche publications. That was about all the prior experience I had.
As for an alternative:
—Make a list of people that you're genuinely interested in. It's helpful if they are in an industry you want to be in.
—Come up with a list of questions you'd like to ask them.
—Find their Twitter handles or email addresses.
—If they live in your city send them a tweet or email saying why you admire them, and ask to buy them a coffee. If not, see if they'd be open to a 15-30-minute call.
—Follow-up with them occasionally.
I have a friend who is about a year into her career as an occupational therapist. Recently she was asking questions about how she could get ahead. The above is what I recommended. I think it's a valuable exercise regardless of career.
Everyone is lucky. We are lucky to have been born. Some of us are "more lucky" than others. It all depends on how you wanna measure lucky. I think the idea that most of these articles are trying to drive home is that we shouldn't depend on ALL LUCK alone. But rather craft a deliberate plan to achieve whatever we wish to. Whatever the steps that lead to our dreams, there will always be an element of luck.
We have all these ideals about hard work but in reality the economy is largely a casino. With crippling student debt most young people have been hamstrung from the gate. Milleneals don't generate wealth like boomers because most milleneals were effectively born into indentured servitude with the exploitation over education. Sure you could try to go without a degree in 2017 but good luck getting your foot in the door to anything today without education.
That's not how statistics works. "At my first job I wasn't supposed to be there for an interview but went along..." doesn't mean if you passed on this and got the next job you would be any worse or better off. Luck literally means random chance, which would mean that if you didn't take this job it would have changed your outcome vs. all the other possible outcomes if you passed on it.
In poker, the fastest way to climb the ladder in stakes is to play a tight-aggressive style and be conservative with your bankroll (make sure you have plenty to cover the variance of the stakes you’re playing), but also occasionally take ‘shots’ at higher levels with a small portion of your bankroll. If you run good during your shot, you stay at the higher level. Otherwise, you move back down to rebuild.
In short, you take frequent calculated risks when the downside of failure is low. I think a similar strategy can be very effective in life.
This gets broken down and fails against skilled players who are adept at noticing conservative play styles just like this. It's quickly punished by small pots on what should be big wins. The trick isn't just conservative play, but deceptive and difficult to track play with an underlying trend of conservatism.
Playing against skilled players is not how money in poker is made.
If you're playing against 9 other skilled players, money will mostly move around the table, and the only winner will end up being the casino due to rake.
The easiest way to increase profitability in poker is to play against people significantly worse than you are. Not unlike life, where the biggest factor of success is being born in the right country to the right parents.
I’m going to take a contrarian view and say: figure out why you want to be rich, first. For most people, money is a proxy for respect, status, power, security, social skills, romantic attraction from others, free time, or otherwise.
If you can ignore the constant “only rich people are meaningful human beings” message that is blared 24/7 from western culture, you might find that it’s easier to just go after what you want, directly.
Here is a list of reasons that "enlightened" (i.e. not scrooge) people would want to be rich:
- The ability to secure the best medical care for yourself and your family in a country where this takes money to do.
- The ability to walk away from abusive employment relationships without a second thought or any stress.
- The ability to engage in high-level economic actions, the kind that aren't designed for your failure. (Buying a few franchises vs. buying a payday loan)
- The ability to, fundamentally, own yourself instead of being forced to act according to the interests of people with the money to pay you. Maybe you'll use that time to act in the interests of people who can't pay you.
Assuming that "rich" means "don't need to work at all, for the rest of your life, to keep a roof over your head and food on your table," none of what you listed require being rich.
> The ability to secure the best medical care for yourself and your family in a country where this takes money to do.
I can only speak to the US but this is much more an insurance issue than a wealth issue. When I made $30k a year I had a ~$75k surgery and it cost me about $1200 all in, including follow-up copays with the surgeon, because I had good insurance through my employer. I probably had $15k in credit card debt at the time and rented a $400/mo room in someone else's house - certainly not rich by any stretch.
> The ability to walk away from abusive employment relationships without a second thought or any stress.
This is all about skills, not wealth. Most folks on HN could leave their job today and walk into something making 95-120% of their current salary without much issue.
> The ability to engage in high-level economic actions, the kind that aren't designed for your failure. (Buying a few franchises vs. buying a payday loan)
You don't need to be rich to get a franchise loan.
> The ability to, fundamentally, own yourself instead of being forced to act according to the interests of people with the money to pay you.
This is so esoteric it's hard to even know what you're trying to say here. I'm sure you could find plenty of people with $10+ million net worths who feel beholden to act a certain way in the interests of certain people.
If you child gets a serious disease, can you take a year off from work to comfort him/her and give the best possible assistance in recovery? Can you take your child to private facilities that have individual rooms and private tutoring so they don't miss out on education? If the best possible treatment with a high success rate and a low-impact recovery is in Sweden, can you arrange medical transport on a plane to get your child there?
Insurance is just to cover not dying. Being rich makes it a comfortable experience.
>Assuming that "rich" means "don't need to work at all, for the rest of your life, to keep a roof over your head and food on your table," none of what you listed require being rich.
Yup, I believe that's their point. If you realize the reason you want to be rich can be had for less cost than actually becoming rich, you can save yourself a lot of time and stress.
Anecdotally, I cut my salary by 60% this year to directly pursue what I wanted, instead of saving to do it years later. I suppose I may regret it some day, but at this point I'm confident it was the right choice.
Are you willing to share what you are pursuing? I'm curious. I'm feeling a bit hamsterwheely myself right now and am constantly looking at the horizon for an alternative approach that could work for me.
> This is so esoteric it's hard to even know what you're trying to say here. I'm sure you could find plenty of people with $10+ million net worths who feel beholden to act a certain way in the interests of certain people.
I think with OP is trying to say is that more money means more leverage – not in the credit sense – to only feel beholden to people that have interests that align with yours (family, peers, mentors) and less with those that don’t (boss, managers or people who know how to manipulate your behaviour by using lack of money as a tool).
> because I had good insurance through my employer
However, you only get this peace of mind without being rich thanks to Obamacare (whose days may be numbered...). Before, you had to be rich to self-insure against the following events:
- What if you lose your job? It could take you longer to find one again than whatever Cobra covers, or a pre-existing condition could make individual insurance unaffordable.
- What if your insurance is not as good as you thought, and you hit a lifetime cap?
- What if the insurance company managed to conjure up a pre-existing condition to escape their obligations?
Sure you had good insurance then, but you could have easily lost it by losing your job. And before Obamacare the only way to be absolutely safe from the negative outcomes I listed was to be rich.
> I can only speak to the US but this is much more an insurance issue than a wealth issue. When I made $30k a year I had a ~$75k surgery and it cost me about $1200 all in, including follow-up copays with the surgeon, because I had good insurance through my employer. I probably had $15k in credit card debt at the time and rented a $400/mo room in someone else's house - certainly not rich by any stretch.
This isn't rich. Rich is the ability to direct people to research life extension and disease prevention. It's to be able to have access to the newest techniques and best doctor, regardless of world location.
It's the ability to have a sick child with 24/7 doctors and only worry about the child.
Rich is the ability to buy an island and create a clone army of yourself, using that army to construct the largest ai supercomputer the world has ever seen, then solving aging and disease ultimately merging with the machine, redefining and extending what it means to be human.
People seem to be forgetting this one: to better the world by building or investing in new companies that do good things for their customers, employees and society, or by contributing to important non-profit causes.
We're at an the point where we shouldn't ever discuss that without explicitly adding "... minimizing the environmental damage and consumption of natural resources".
"I'll provide X" needs to be immediately though about on the terms that it will cost the planet (and everyone living in it) Y.
This is not exactly what you posted, but related: I'm not an environmental nut, I just think that this 'we create wealth' discourse more often than not ignores the fact that we're actually just borrowing quality of life from people in the future. They get to deal with bad water, worse weather, natural disasters, droughts, terrible air quality, etc. while we 'provide valuable insights to customer relations', 'maintain a pseudonymous decentralized currency' or some other obviously-not-worth-it bullshit
So, my comment was adding to the parent's suggested reasons that "enlightened" (i.e. not scrooge) people would want to be rich.
I pointed out that one that was overlooked (but that IHMO is the most important), is to re-invest it in making the world better.
Making the world better for the future is implied in that, and I think that's what you see in, for example, Elon Musk's efforts to make electric transportation viable and ubiquitous, along with the some of the philanthropic efforts of Gates, Buffet, etc.
Sure there are some bad actors who believe it's fine to plunder and trash the earth for short-term benefit, but the trend is in the opposite direction, and it's becoming far more commonplace, even among traditionally very destructive companies like petrochemical companies, to invest substantially in innovations and projects that reverse the damage and create benefits for the future. That's happening because more and more people are demanding it.
Don't forget also, that just as people who were inventing technologies and making medical discoveries 100 years ago were making improvements that benefit most of us living today, inventions of today will benefit future generations.
None of this is black and white; there are benefits and costs in everything, and it's important to be mindful of both as we progress and ensure things stack up positive in the end.
I would also add: The ability to live in a nice family home in a nice neighborhood. Which is on track to become prohibitively expensive in most places.
Which you have to be rich (or at least well off by most American standards) to do. To move to Sweden, for example, either you need a salaried job with full benefits (including the health insurance and employer lock-in that the parent is looking to escape from) that's willing to relocate you to Sweden, or you need to have ~$25k in savings (~$35k if you're married, more if you have kids), plus proof of positive cash flow for whatever business you're undertaking in Sweden.
And even then, that just lets you live there. You don't become a citizen will full benefits for five years.
But once you meet those requirements... you're probably well-off enough that it doesn't matter anymore.
I think most of the people on HN are well off and apparently considering considerable sacrifice over a significant period of time to have odds of getting rich..
When asked why, they need only the things they would get from living 5 years of an imperfectly richer life first?
(Is there a probable way to get from an education and/or 25k in the bank to the rest of rich in less than 5 years and/or with better partial benefits during the interval?)
Actually, an "enlightened" person most likely wouldn't care about those factors. They'd be happy with a hut in the woods, depending on donations or foraging for food.
But as yayana points out, none of those factors depend on being rich in well run countries. (There are alternatives to the scandinavian models with a bit less nanny state that also achieve all of those factors, but the Scandinavian countries are the most famous for letting you not care about medical care and bad employers.)
> ... the constant “only rich people are meaningful human beings” message that is blared 24/7 from western culture ...
I don't think it's only Western culture that is to blame. Middle Eastern, Indian and Chinese cultures seem to have even more ingrained versions of this core assumption.
I wouldn’t call it the least materialistic but capitalist culture is dominant in most of the world now. Honestly I think the lack of materialism in most cultures is largely mythologized. If African tribes measure your wealth by how many animals you have, well, that’s just materialism via other materials and I’m sure leads to its own kinds of conspicuous consumption (invite the whole village to your party for instance).
Religious orders seem to be the easy-to-identify exception and those exist in all the large cultures.
I read the article as pro-wealth, not pro-money. The author says that wealth is ownership of assets that generate money while you sleep. Ultimately, I see wealth as freedom of time. But there are two other big categories of wealth: health and social network. If you have FU money but also brain cancer or live on a planet by yourself, the money doesn’t mean much.
Reminds me of this quote, can't remember by whom (maybe Tim Ferris?) something along the lines of: "You don't really want a million dollars; what you really want is the kind of life that you think you need a million dollars to have"
I wonder what he means by that. To me it's the exact opposite. I don't want anything extravagant - none of the things one might picture when one thinks "millionaire's lifestyle"; no big house, no luxury car, no exotic vacations, etc. The only (or at least primary) thing I'd like is the security to pay my modest expenses and cover any potential emergencies in perpetuity, without relying on a job and without moving to a cheap country to reduce living expenses (I would like to stay close to my family in the US). For that, I do need a million dollars, and even that is barely enough.
I don't think he means typical TV millionaire lifestyle. It's referencing things like being able to "travel the world" which many people think requires being rich; when it reality it can be totally doable if you have enough of an open mind and are willing to get creative
Live in country which has generous welfare system (scandinavian countries). Here I think people have all the basic needs pretty much covered. You can only get your things messed up if you get hooked up on drugs or alcohol.
Though to me living here it seems that people are still all the time complaining and demanding more and more, though we have more safety nets than about any other place on earth.
Not sure I'm reading you right, but here are my two cents.
Also living in Scandinavia and I would disagree with this advice. To be dependent on the welfare system is not exactly being free and have security.
Like the Swedish Prime Minister Göran Persson said: "One who is in debt is not free".
And living off of the welfare system is in my view to be indebted to society. I would not be able to shake that feeling if I was, at least not if it was voluntarily. Add to that the social stigma, even from close friends and family. This would limit your freedom of having an agency in social interactions.
Also I would not consider it secure, since the rules of the welfare system changes quite a lot over time. Which you have no way of impacting, meaning you are dependent and not free.
EDIT: Just realized the question was about "security+free time". I guess you would have free time, which is not exactly the same as being free in any meaningful sense.
EDIT: Not sure why I'm being downvoted. But for clarification I can add that I think this applies if you voluntarily would live off of the welfare system, thus leeching from the ones who really needs it. It's of course a totally different story if you are involuntarily need to get welfare to survive and live a decent life.
While those are valid points, I don't think the idea is "plan to live off the welfare system" but rather "take the risks and try something new", because if you fail you have a safety net to catch you and help you get back up again.
Totally agree and I would argue that there even is financial gain for society in letting people take such risks. Maybe I was kicking at an open door, but my point was that there, in my opinion, does not exist a huge incentive to misuse the welfare system voluntarily.
This has a flipside though. If you do manage to find success (and say, own a profitable business or have an exit), you'll be taxed into oblivion.
It might not be the popular opinion on HN, but I would hate that. Make sure to structure things properly from the beginning so that you can leave when appropriate.
Sorry, but this has to be the dumbest comment in HN.
The parent post was saying how living in a country with a generous welfare system can make a lot easier to have more free time and easier to take risks, and you're worried that if you take advantage of that, you might need to help pay that off if you're successful?
The fact of the matter is that, in countries where the state gives you a lot, they generally take a lot as well. The money needs to come from somewhere.
Most decent entrepreneurs manage to sustain themselves and find a way to build out something regardless of whether the state is handing out money. If I manage to get a win, I want to keep most of my winnings.
I'm European but wouldn't want to live in a country with high income taxes, high capital gains taxes, various hidden levies (luxury cars costing hundreds of thousands, gas being super expensive), high corporate and dividend taxes, and to top it off a nice annual wealth tax. Why even bother trying to achieve more than your fellow citizen in that kind of setting?
> The fact of the matter is that, in countries where the state gives you a lot, they generally take a lot as well. The money needs to come from somewhere.
The state gives a lot to you, when you're poor, and it takes a lot from you, later on after you're not poor anymore. Why do you think you should get to live in a nice place full of nice things paid for by other people, and not pay your own share? How is that morally different from spending the night in a hotel and then skipping out on the bill?
Spending a night in a hotel and then skipping out on the bill will land you jail (or at least it will get the police involved). Avoiding tax is legal and does not.
> Why do you think you should get to live in a nice place full of nice things paid for by other people, and not pay your own share?
By definition, if you pay everything you owe, aren't you paying your share?
> By definition, if you pay everything you owe, aren't you paying your share?
The line between tax avoidance and freeloading is debatable. Maybe you use less tax-funded things than most people. Maybe you refuse to drive on streets, cross rivers in a rowboat instead of walking on bridges, and resolutely close your eyes when walking by a beautiful piece of taxpayer-funded art. But morally, if you're enjoying nice things that other people paid for, you're freeloading (which is emphatically not a political stance, or an "unpopular opinion").
Can you provide examples? I can only think of a counter-example: Ingvar Kamprad, the (Swedish) founder of Ikea, and by some accounts at times the richest man on earth.
Literally every businessman who lives in Monaco. Most aren't very well known, however.
If you make sure, for example, your intellectual rights (if we're talking a software company) aren't held in a country with a super high corporate tax rate, that would be a good start.
No. It slows you down just getting rich as well. If I want to make €5 or €10m and retire, it's inefficient to pay a lot of tax if you can legally get around it.
It's one thing to pay on gains you make after you've gotten rich, i.e. if you're making 5% a year on €10m, than on the initial capital you're building up.
1. Keep expenses low, stay out of debt, the usual.
2. Avoid industries with boom and bust cycles. Additionally, avoid career paths that may become irrelevant in 20-30 years.
3. Instead, learn skills that will always be useful, regardless of the state of the economy. Typically this means the trades, but be careful there - certain trades are too dependent on a good housing market. Most medical fields (like nursing) are also pretty secure. Also consider boring fields like accounting or certain governmental positions. Many government jobs are a bit more stable than the open market - you are sacrificing income for reliability.
4. For bonus points, pick a field that allows you to easily freelance. In the future, when you have enough money and want more time, you can scale your work hours down.
Many people in developing countries have less than $1,000 in monetary/material assets, but have plenty of free time and a decent level of security.
They may not have the nicest house in the nicest location (a tin or concrete square box on a dirt road in a rural location with no jobs), but they are not in any immediate danger in terms of crime or disease.
Another way to create this by proxy in the US is by living in a camper van or large car or perhaps a cheap used RV and parking in one of the millions of free locations we have in the USA (BLM land, national forests, street parking, private land negotiated with a friendly owner).
But if you were wondering like, you know, where can I get a free house with no property taxes in a nice city neighborhood with free health insurance, I'm afraid it doesn't exist unless you are the child of a rich and loving parent.
> Many people in developing countries have less than $1,000 in monetary/material assets, but have plenty of free time and a decent level of security.
As someone with fairly deep knowledge about such a country, many poorer people tend to have no security when they get older or if they get a severe accident. On average, they have little or no savings and often significant debt. Having kids is their insurance against the future, but it is like playing roulette since many/most young people do not earn enough to support their parents (or even live comfortably themselves).
If they wish to raise their kids well, while not having much education themselves, they need to work really hard, not unlike two- or three-jobbers in the States. Otherwise, their kids will have bad education and often need to work minimum wage or only a bit better as an adult.
Free time, yes but only for those who don't prepare much for the future. Security, not really.
(Check out statistics of working hours in developing vs developed countries. People in developing countries often work harder and earn less even in PPP terms.)
Online jobs are increasing at a very rapid pace and people in developing countries will have more and more opportunities to make real wages without injuring themselves.
I spent many months in developing countries too, and I currently live in the USA in my car on like $7,000 a year all in.
Btw, US salaries are dropping/leveling off because of all the increasing work that is able to be performed abroad. I applaud this :)
And as for having kids as an insurance policy for an accident, my gf and I have already decided that we would never subject someone to such imprisonment. We escaped similar situations ourselves, where our parents feel like they own us because they birthed us.
To start, basically regardless of a person, money is time (at a certain standard of living). Too many people internalized working for money as something expected and/or inevitable... I'm not saying it's not normal, or unfair or bad; it's simply something you put up with, like driving - if your car drove itself, you'd never drive except perhaps for fun occasionally.
Even if you love your job and would do it if you were wealthy, it's still the same analogy... it's much better to go drive from A to B for fun every day you want, than to have to drive from A to B for work every day.
In fact, thinking of my own situation, I like my job and I like to code in my free time... but both being burned out occasionally and just having less free time means I do much less of the latter than I want to. So instead of writing some code I find interesting I have to fix somebody's legacy systems at work... or even create something nice at work, but less interesting to me (although more commercially viable, obviously) than what I would do otherwise.
Ironically, that’s weirdly close to how it turns out. My current model is that humans are really driven by avoidance of various types of mental anguish (“suffering”), but can use pleasure and “happy things” to distract from suffering instead of removing the suffering. So after a while the pleasure or happiness seems like the goal.
But, if you decide to stop suffering and are able to achieve that, pleasure and “happiness” actually don’t serve much of a purpose anymore, but you still feel really good; it’s more of a “well-being” sensation.
Already mentioned, but Meetup and its kin (Eventbrite, Facebook events) are good gateways into meetups that you’d have enough interest in that the possibility of connecting with someone you’d get along with is high.
Meetup.com. Seriously. A public meetup is probably used to getting the occasional random awkward person, and may have introductions built into its format. I've had good luck with smallish ones, anyway.
I've been listening the entire back catalog of NPR's "How I Built This" blog. The interviewer always asks if their success is due to hard work, skill, intelligence, etc. or luck. All of them acknowledge some luck is always involved. But the best quote I recall, but don't remember he interviewee, was "The harder I worked the more luck I found I had."
Highly recommend the podcast. At first I cherry-picked the interviews I thought I would be interested in, but they are all good, regardless of the company or industry.
Specific knowledge is knowledge that you cannot be trained for. If society can train you, it can train someone else, and replace you.
If there is market value in a skill or knowledge, the market will find the people who can be trained in it, then train them. Perhaps a talent is required to be competitive.
Corollary: Beware of fields which have artificial gatekeeping. They are in a disadvantageous market.
Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true.
Borrowed from Scott Adams: It's hard to become a top 5% in a given field. It's easy to get to the top 20%. So find two synergistic fields where you can get to top 20%. This makes you a top 5% cross-disciplinary expert.
There are no get rich quick schemes. That's just someone else getting rich off you.
Often, it's other people getting rich off of the efforts of a huge mob, while making a small sliver of that mob fantastically rich.
Investment banking is one, another is corporate law. It's incredibly difficult to get a job in either field without a degree from a top school, with top grades. Google hires lots of people with degrees from state schools (or without degrees!). That's not the case at, say, McKinsey. Neither job inherently requires a degree from a top school, but it's almost a prerequisite to get the job.
u/stcredzero's example is also a great one, as over-regulation is a massive problem. However, it's not as much of an issue for higher paying jobs, which I think are more relevant when we're discussing high-end software engineers.
Note: I'm discussing over-regulation. There's a very strong case for heart surgeons to be highly regulated. There's a weaker case for having strict regulations for hairdressers.
I know very few people that got rich without getting lucky and none of them would have been rich if they had followed this list.
The majority of them simply went into finance, consulting or real estate at a young age and invested their income smartly (retrospectively!). After the first million rolls in if you're young enough compound returns will take care of the rest if you can postpone altering your life-style.
Find out where high-status or wealthy people congregate for recreation. Pay close attention to their culture, mannerisms, language, and dress. Practice emulating them until sufficiently skilled. Frequent the same places as them until some begin to recognize you and believe you are one of them. Then, make them actually enjoy your company.
In modern times, this would probably be called “networking” or “sales”.
And, then there is marriage. Another ages-old strategy. But, pretty much the same strategy as above.
The rest of the wealthy people whom I personally know worked hard at software companies before the 90s and reinvested in equities, and later, real estate. (These cases could be considered luck, though. They had to be in the right place at the right time. And, that same strategy didn’t work only a decade or so later.)
I'm 23 so please excuse my ignorance. I've been struggling with the marriage benefits personally. There are the extra single taxes, rates for insurance, etc.
However, in the US, with the amount of divorce (alimony / child support) it seems less than optimal to view marriage as an asset.
Even if this were only (or primarily) available to one gender, what makes you conclude that that gender is "the opposite gender" in the context of GP's post?
But one important part of their success was to invest their income. I know too many people that use their money to consume. Investing early in your life is what makes the difference. It's very easy to spend it on little things and claim to not have anything to invest.
If you have money to invest, invest in low-cost, broad-based index funds. I personally bias slightly towards small cap (said more precisely: I avoid biasing toward large-cap, but to many people, that looks like biasing towards small caps). One specific choice is VTSAX from Vanguard, but there are many others.
Keep an emergency fund of 2-4 months in cash or equivalents, and invest everything else that you can when young. Don’t buy the flashy new car, the rounds of $15 drinks, don’t carry a credit card balance, etc. When the inevitable market gyrations come, do not take the money out. Don’t try to time the market.
If you don’t have much money to get started, consider real estate as a second job. The leveraged nature of that bet is one of the few ways to start from relatively little money and build a nest egg. It’s a second job, though. If you pay a PM to manage it, the PM makes more current income than you do in most cases.
Any thoughts on strategy's for not "if your young" people?
My wife and I (early 30s) have been getting her school debt settled but with little retirement outside of a small 401k, we've started looking at aggressive retirement plans.
At the moment we're just treating everything as the most yield (compounded or not). So her high interest debt is the most yield, however once half of those are out, a lot of investments will yield higher than her debt, so we'll likely shift priorities towards those.
First, no matter what you do, construct an asset mix (even if it's wrong) to start, then do research on what is most appropriate for you, stick to it, and just keep investing to each of those buckets.
I think I sit generally along the lines of:
- 60% real estate property
- 10% retirement investments (401k, IRA, etc)
- 10% Vanguard Index funds (diversified across 5 indices, large cap, SP500, small cap, REIT, etc)
- 5% direct stock investments (moderate risk, high reward)
- 8% high risk, high reward investments (e.g. seed investments)
- ~2% cash (mix of checking account and HYS account @ 1.7% APY)
- 20% of my overall portfolio is basically liquid in case of an emergency
NOTE - do not strictly follow this asset mix, it's just illustrative based on what my wife and I have decided to do.
TMND is rarely mentioned in these discussions on HN, and I think that's a shame. Despite being a bit over 20 years old, it's a fascinating study of documented high net worth individuals. They also do a good job of contrasting high net worth and high income.
The tl;dr for others is basically, what's someone who is hardworking and driven enough to retire at age 31 actually supposed to do with the rest of their life? Sit in front of the TV? Of course he's going to do some things he enjoys (writing, working on houses, hiking, skiing), and maybe some of those activities will make him money - but he doesn't need the money to maintain his current lifestyle.
I messed up on the inheritance; it was a house leftover from the house building business and used for rent and a sale later.
Their own yearly reports put the second part to a lie - they would have to cut back significantly on their spending if they lost this income. It's possible for them to do without going homeless, but it would be non-trivial.
His last reported year, his base costs (food, clothing, electricity, etc) were $30,000 - within the range. But as he himself notes right below that total, they spent around $90,000 on health insurance and a vehicle, which he pretends doesn't belong in the previous category because "the job pays for it".
Not holding that job suddenly puts him on the hook for that $90,000, or puts him at risk of not having health insurance and reliable transportation.
> Not holding that job suddenly puts him on the hook for that $90,000, or puts him at risk of not having health insurance and reliable transportation.
He doesn't need a car that expensive and he can move back to Canada if health insurance gets to be too much.
He's inflated his lifestyle with his increased earnings (falling short of practicing what he preaches, though in fairness he says he's bought an electric car to support the industry but that's a way to justify the purchase), and would probably dial it back down if the blog stopped throwing off that much cash.
A correction: The house I was referring to was not actually an inheritance. It was a leftover from an abandoned house building business, funded via the usual business means (some personal money, lots of loans, etc.), acquired prior to 'retirement'.
It provided 5-6 years of rental revenue and a $400,000 final payday.
You might want to put some into a fund that comprises bonds, though they've performed poorly (for my investments) in recent years. If you're young (<40), I would put as much, if not all, in a fund consisting of stocks.
Remember, the stock market does not create money, it's not a fundamental advancement for humanity. That just means that more people poured money into stocks, rather than other investments or savings.
There's absolutely, ABSOLUTELY no reason for which this growth should keep going on in the future.
A stock is a piece of a company. That company should be creating value and that value should be worth money, maybe revenue or assets. The price of a company goes up because it is either worth more today than it was yesterday or people believe it will be worth more tomorrow than it is today. Usually people that own a company are trying to create more and more value. It's human nature bubbling up to the top. Why would the stock market suddenly stop reflecting this value growth for absolutely no reason?
Because it may be (already) overpriced, and maybe somebody will stop investing in the stock? Because automatic systems (e.g. AI, HFT) will lessen investors' faith in the stock market? Because better investment opportunities come out?
- new companies go IPO, they do it because there is liquidity in the market, so they can count on someone buying their shares and cashing in.
- some blue-chip companies pay out dividends
- as much as many people hate on that, profitable companies engage in shares buy backs which is a way to return money earned by the company to its shareholders. If the company makes no profit, it has less to do buy-backs with.
- in the end a share is a piece of a company, big part of their long term valuation will always be driven by their fundamentals like a ratio between profit and revenue or how likely they are going to default on their debts, no one wants to own a piece of company that is going to disappear
in summary, there is quite some connection to the real economy, but I agree that part of the valuation is just because other people pour money in it is just not that bad.
It is true that the total market capitalization may be connected with more companies being publicly traded. But the stock market won't create value on its own. It means that somebody pours money into it.
While not providing any specific investment advice, this is a wonderful, free resource for understanding the risks and benefits of long-term investing:
I really liked investing in companies I love to use or just want to succeed because I think they are onto something. More risky but at the same time 'supports' what I like and with more reward if it works out than index funds (which you should do in general).
Don't listen to risk-averse engineers. You are young, invest in high risk things you believe in. Make it an active investment if you can.
Recognize who is giving you boring advice(index funds), look at the risk levels in their life, and then disregard them if they don't take chances on anything.
At a young age your risky investment % should be at it's highest. The exact amount will depend on your appetite.
That's a fair thought to entertain and thanks for raising it. As a counter-balancing point, I'd advise considering input from a variety of people who have created financial security or built actual wealth, ask them how they did it, and consider the extent to which your situation, skills, and goals have similarities or differences from their path. (I absolutely agree that full or nearly-full "risk on" is the way to go as a young person during the accumulation phase of your life.)
"Boring advice" works to make multi-millionaires in a predictable, boring fashion, especially when the available timeline is 40-50 years.
I will have personally invested $110k (by 2019) at age 23. All of my retirement accounts (401k, T-IRA, HSA) are invested in ETFs (0.06 expense ratio average) and a few actively managed funds with 20+% returned from 3YR-5YR view.
The rest is invested in individual stocks and high-risk mutual funds. Once I am 30, I will start pumping more into ETFs (stocks and add in bonds).
I absolutely love the advice. Everyone is different but I try to be as risky as possible with at least 40-50% of my portfolio until I am 30.
Two possible changes to my strategy will be if I build a good software product/business that makes more income. I will divert the money put into risky investing and dump it into my products/business. The other change is buying a home ($100-250,000). I want to raise backyard chickens!
I like this advice, particularly the warning against risk-averse behavior. Literally anyone can give the most common answers. It takes someone with true insight to actually see what the person needs, in this case how the risk profile changes over time.
As this is an Internet forum, it's kind of hard to evaluate how much risk commenters take in their lives; don't assume that all of the boring advice comes from boring people.
Only make it active if you have influence on the outcome (i.e., starting your own business). If we're talking stock investing, you'll just get eaten. Which can be a good lesson, but it's one you can skip if you want and go directly to index funds. :)
You can use your money to generate passive income, or you can use it to get leverage (retaining more of a percent of your startup; taking a risk on a risky but better job; etc.). In either of those paths, do it smartly.
I'm not sure if it's true that your investment percentage should be at its highest while young. Maybe as a percentage of your total assets? But then it's just a consequence of when you're young you have lower assets. Whereas if you're instead talking about a percentage of your income, say, then perhaps your risky investment should be highest when you're older, because by then you've developed a nest egg that will basically secure your retirement so long as you leave it alone (e.g. with "boring" index funds) you can devote all of your income to whatever risky endeavors without having to worry about the high probability downside of losing it all.
There's some basic math around compound interest that comes into play that young people should consider. While growing up my state required a "financial literacy" course for everyone, I assume that's expanded across the country so most people should be able to do the math if they're so inclined, but I also think charts like these are useful and good enough to get the point across: http://www.businessinsider.com/amazing-power-of-compound-int... Generally speaking, start-time for getting the investment nest egg rolling dominates.
Also even if your appetite for risk is large now, you have to really ask what you want out of any risky endeavor, when you want it realized, and what you'll be satisfied with, since if you'll be satisfied with X there's little reason to pursue some high risk activity that if it works out returns Y >> X but most likely (being high risk) you won't even break even. Consider a risky endeavor that's less risky in that if it works out will give you X, but with the nature of risk the probabilities of not working out are lowered. Boring index funds are a type of this lower risk investment that can satisfy "effectively able to retire" in your 30s, but they're not going to satisfy rich startup gains leading to double-digit millionaire+ status. It's at least a path if you want that certain state of "retirement nest egg" when you're in your 30s, and by extension works if you just want it for your 60s too. On the other hand, maybe you're someone indifferent to when you want unicorn-success riches to be realized (great if tomorrow, fine if 20 years from now after you finally catch a break and haven't died first).
ATMs - put one in a popular spot, there's an app that tells you when it needs to be refilled, go refill it. You can find people selling their ATMs already set up in locations. You have to drive around and refill them so the biggest risk is that someone robs you. Liquor store is another good one. A friend's roommate bought one for $400K and makes $16K/month. He just refills inventory and sits around selling booze. A lot of that goes towards his loan but after that he'll be making way more than I probably ever will. The risk again is that someone robs you. I always check bizbuysell.com to see what kinds of things are out there.
The low-effort part is your sticking point. In my experience, most people are best served treating money conservatively and taking large risks with their time investments -- learn a rare craft, start a business, etc.
Well, if you really use money only for basic food and essentials, I think you can survive with very, very little money. I did that when I was a student. Life can be just quite dull if you eat that kind of food from day to day.
What I see is that most people just appreciate the luxury today more than the savings which would enable more luxury tomorrow. I think there's nothing wrong with that. You might die any day in a traffic accident, so why bother saving all that money? Those are quite subjective decisions.
Maybe you are misunderstanding what the term consume means?
Consuming means using resources on things that immediately loose their value. If you for example buy a house, that's not consuming since the house has inherent value.
But if you yourself the newest gaming rig, the gaming rig is consuming the money. This is what Americans mean when they talk about consumer society.
Expending resources (i.e., money) for food doesn't cause the food to immediately lose its value. Expending resources (i.e., physical energy) for eating the food also doesn't cause the food to lose its value, as it almost certainly provides more energy and nutrition than is expended in its digestion, thus maintaining the consumer (i.e., a net gain); it may also have additional value, which probably attracted an additional cost to begin with (e.g., superior flavour, scarcity, etc.)
It's an overloaded term, sure, but it's clear that consumables -- i.e., things that need to be consumed to release their value, such as food -- only fall under the category of "consumption" when there's a surplus of value that becomes illiquid. For example, eating a balanced meal when you're hungry is a net gain, while eating 50 pizzas when you don't need to isn't!
You can consume food, you car consumes gas and your girlfriends expensive holiday consumes money.
When Americans say "consumer" they mean someone who spends money on things that they are not going to sell again.
That can be smartphones, luxury cars, drugs or food.
You could also say a consumer is the opposite of an investor.
As a side note, a house also has inherent cost. If you're thinking of a house as an investment, you have to factor maintenance in, which can be hard to calculate in advance.
I don't think the GP meant "consume" as eating food.
Consume here means non-essential needs such as always buying latest gadget (while previous one still works), changing your car early for no good reason (less than a few years), or even buying one if you don't need one, going out often at expensive activities etc...
They were talking about the people (of whom I've been one, earlier in life), who have been privileged enough to have earned a lot of money but wasted it.
That's an extremely tiresome interpretation of the comment you replied to.
If you give them just the tiniest little benefit of the doubt, it's easy to see that they are talking about the money they had available after meeting their needs and that they probably aren't criticizing people that don't have a lot of such money.
Yes, I understood your point. My point is that it is tiresome to bring it up anytime and every time someone makes a comment about saving money. They weren't being dismissive, they were replying in context (people that save their way to riches sort of obviously have had money that fits into the 'savable' category).
The vast majority of Americans aren’t being held back from building wealth because of their spending on essential food. Americans actually spend a smaller percentage of their income on food than many developed countries.
Yea, I saw the headline and thought: “Guaranteed this is some already-rich guy spouting generalizations and philosophy rather than revealing actual, actionable tactics.” And, well... I was right. I’d like to see someone actually take a normal, unlucky person and connect the dots showing all the steps between this “advice” and money entering a bank account. Now THAT would be impressive.
And you start seeing mini prisoners dilemmas in all interactions. Maybe dated, but still loads of fun: Game of Life John Conway's Winning Ways For Your Mathematical Plays
If we define rich as not having to work, it could be achieved with a low income, but low expenses. At an extreme, perhaps, self-sufficiency, using knowledge and technology (even robots?) instead of back-breaking stope subsistence farming.
This is basically my life right now and I am loving every single second of it.
Another tip here is to surround yourself with people who also love having low expenses and are adventurous and open minded.
My gf originally wanted to plan a vacation that involved a flight, hotel, and nights out on the city.
When I took her car camping on the beach 45 mins away from our job and cooked her dinner on the beach, for an all in budget (gas parking food etc) of like $27, she never looked back from her newfound hobby XDD
How do you define being poor? My definition: having to think about money or surviving all the time. With stable low-income job or even with small savings without job, you can live quite stress-free life if you keep your living expenses low. Meaning that you just have routines and hobbies that are inexpensive - cook home, live in cheap area, commute with bicycle, etc.
I think a better term is financially independent. I would say a better definition of being rich is having plentiful wealth such that you enjoy freedoms well above what's typical of the general population, or ones personal expectations. Being poor is the opposite; having wealth that limits your freedoms below your expectations. This is of course relative, but rightfully so.
"Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep."
If you are earning wealth while you sleep, it must be coming from somewhere. Either it is illusory (eg interest, which is cancelled by inflation), or it is being generated by other people working.
"Understand that ethical wealth creation is possible."
Thus, this statement is dubious in the context of "wealth while you sleep".
You can create software/automation system that works/creates value for users. As a creator, you can ethically derive wealth from that value even when you are asleep.
Added as part of a reply:
Certain systems create value in excess of individual components you put into it. (That system may include a variety of resources that you pay market costs for, not only just your personal labor.)
The creator of the system can earn that excess value because it wouldn't otherwise exist. There is a term for this in an Intro to Economics textbook I read a long time ago, but I can't recall.
technically, yes, but you had to work to create it, and probably have to continue to work to maintain it in the face of competition.
If you have created some kind of lock-in which allows you to extract rent indefinitely from some initial effort, then you have some degree of monopoly, which would be ethically questionable.
"Earn while you sleep" does not mean "conjure from thin air and then earn perpetually". It just means creating a system that decouples time spent working from amount of money received. As opposed to a job, where they are tightly coupled.
Many things do not have identical competitors. Books, music, apps, and restaurants with unique recipes (within an area) come to mind. The creators of these products/services earn the value derived from the uniqueness/utility that customers value and pay for.
It's impossible to create wealth without labour. But you absolutely can amplify labour (any kind of tool, harness a horse, build a water or wind mill). And you can also store wealth: labour now, use later (e.g. grainstore).
Neither are wealth crestion while you sleep.
These examples use an absolute measure of wealth, of food. Whereas, labour amplification in our society is neutralized over time: when everyone has the same tool, your labour is no longer (relatively) amplified.
The typical application of these ideas to todays society involves a moat or artificial barrier that prevents your labour from being commoditized, while you benefit from everyone else's labour, which is commoditized. Typically, "you' are an in-group, with special knowledge and powers.
> That is assuming the raw materials cost $0 and there is no value to assuming the risk of the sales price.
Yes, it was a very simplified model.
> If you pay the worker $800, but it turns out the market only values the widget at $500, does the worker return the difference? Usually not.
In that case the worker is the one being unethical.
> If you are not providing any value, why is the worker not just cutting you out of the deal and making and selling widgets directly?
Each person involved in making the product and getting it to the customer: marketing, distribution etc. would need to get paid their share of their contribution.
I guess my example was too simplistic, but that's simplest way I could make the point.
> > If you pay the worker $800, but it turns out the market only values the widget at $500, does the worker return the difference? Usually not.
> In that case the worker is the one being unethical.
I don't consider the worker any more unethical than the owner is in your example. Two adults have access to the same information and come to an agreement. If they both consent to the transaction without coercion, there can be nothing unethical about it.
Owner assumes risk for possible but not guaranteed payoff.
Worker gives up potential upside, but gets guaranteed payoff.
Worker has the option to reject the deal and assume the risk themselves if they like, or assume part of the risk by providing some capital of their own or working contingent on future payoff (a la, lower base pay + stock options like startups do).
The value of things in the future cannot be known. Reducing that uncertainty has value. Rewards are distributed in proportion to the risk that is assumed.
There is great value in the infrastructure required to produce a widget, even if it's just a group of people "putting thier heads together" (which is why individual workers can't just quite and start producing on their own).
But usually both the workers and the owners contribute and help build and maintain that infrastructure, so it seems unfair that only the owners profit.
Your value is facilitating the whole enterprise, providing customers a way to get the work done, taking the risk of finding customers and other uncertainties of business while giving someone a place where she can earn these $800.
If you had not done that, she would not produce the work and someone would not be able to buy it.
If you have a decent chance of getting rich (read: well-paying job or income source), then the biggest impact on your "wealth" is going to come from two things: your ability to invest wisely, and your ability to optimize your taxes. (that's my two cents, of course - happy to be challenged on these two assumptions).
Most investing relates to Real Estate. I've been involved and knee-deep into real estate investments for most of my life, as someone who had always wanted to "get rich" (not obsessively, but still with a strong focus). I am not rich now, but I can't really complain.
Most real estate investments are made in a silly way. Most of the people I gave advice to showed me countless mistakes on the way up. They could be way richer if only they spent a few dozen hours more on understanding investing or specifically real estate investing.
The most common mistake involves the usual "rent vs buy" dilemma. It's a hot debate every time it comes up. There are plenty of "online calculators" that are supposed to help you figure out what's the best decision. However, most people ignore important factors that go beyond the financials. I believe this is important, and in fact I wrote an extensive blog post trying to list a dozen important questions to ask yourself when you are considering whether you want to buy a house or not [0]. I don't mean to self-promote here, that blog post was the result of a few hours of work, prompted by the N-th discussion on the subject, and I believed there was a need to put something clear in writing.
Now, when someone asks me for financial advice that relates to real estate, I point them to the blog post first, and then I'm happy to discuss more if they need to.
I think a better strategy than trying to be rich is,
1. First decide what is the median lifestyle that you want to live. Then decide how much it costs.
2. Next decide what are the tasks which make you most satisfied. Consider doing those tasks that would earn you at least what is required as per above criteria. As a rule of thumb, the most satisfying tasks(ex: world tour with your spouse) will earn the least.
3. Invest, so that you could switch to doing more satisfying tasks, as your threshold of money to be earned via job will go on decreasing.
There's no point in working hard, doing a job you don't like, to earn millions/billions, when you won't be spending most of it. After all, you might get hit by a car today, and you'll never know how those millions of yours got spent by your kids.
I don't know why people can't be normal and just have a reasonable career plan with reasonable savings & investment plan for retirement. Seems like people who write on websites don't give a shit or want to work 80hours a week so they can retire at 38
I blew so much money on this young girl in 15,16,17 it put me in a hole and we aren't together anymore. Was making close to 300k/yr in an area where that's a shitload of money. I could have paid off a bunch of debt, IRS, put a chunk in retirement, lots of stuff. Would I do it again? Oh hell yes because it was an incredible experience. Money ain't shit unless it facilitates an experience you'd never, ever get otherwise. There's different motivators for making money. I've definitely found mine. Writing a new revenue generator right now and I've written so much code I definitely wouldn't have the energy to do this much work unless I had experienced what I did.
"Go slow and you'll make it" puts a cap on success and is not very stimulating. If your idea of life is sitting in a room under a roof you nominally own watching TV with an up-with-the-Jones' car, you've already lost.
In youth while time rich invest in yourself to develop skills and experience, focusing if possible on areas others miss and cannot learn effectively through formal educational programs (eg. R&D, deep science, extensive practical knowledge in a trade, languages, travel and worldliness, etc.). Never allow rigid formal education to destroy your innate curiosity - cherish it: it is the most powerful force for learning and achievement that you have.
Be a talented generalist, not a specialist. High value and high growth opportunities do not emerge consistently from one area but rather general industries. A capacity to absorb and manage cross-disciplinary knowledge rapidly and effectively is worth ten times more than extreme specialization, 99 times out of 100. Don't over-skill in areas that age fast (eg. programming frameworks, design fads, many formal qualifications, etc.).
In young adulthood invest in a partner, they will be your strongest asset in times of need and provide strength, a sounding board and risk-hedging as an alternate actor for all future ventures. If you can, find one from another culture and continent with a different passport, perspective and language... this will give you and any children half a world more options in the future.
Take risky career path moves. Following a crowd might help you to survive, but never to thrive. Just make sure you accrue some capital so that you have options.
Finally, invest in high leverage opportunities in potentially high growth businesses in which you hold substantial equity. If you can't find one, start one. By the time you've done a couple (ideally in a couple of sectors or markets) you'll be worth funding by deeper pockets (read: superpower obtained - partially outsource venture risk) and quite capable at executing. Your first successful exit will place you ahead of your peers, who you will feel empathy and pity for realising they have wasted decades conservatively limiting their own life experience.
my last response didn't post, so here's the link of an ordinary person doing it: It's the invest a little and wait a long time approach:
96-Year-Old Secretary Quietly Amasses Fortune, Then Donates $8.2 Million
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/06/nyregion/secretary-fortun...
> In the United States, where we have more land than people, it is not
at all difficult for persons in good health to make money. In this
comparatively new field there are so many avenues of success open, so
many vocations which are not crowded, that any person of either sex who
is willing, at least for the time being, to engage in any respectable
occupation that offers, may find lucrative employment.
> Those who really desire to attain an independence, have only to set
their minds upon it, and adopt the proper means, as they do in regard to
any other object which they wish to accomplish, and the thing is easily
done. But however easy it may be found to make money, I have no doubt
many of my hearers will agree it is the most difficult thing in the
world to keep it. The road to wealth is, as Dr. Franklin truly says,
"as plain as the road to the mill." It consists simply in expending less
than we earn; that seems to be a very simple problem. Mr. Micawber,
one of those happy creations of the genial Dickens, puts the case in a
strong light when he says that to have annual income of twenty pounds
per annum, and spend twenty pounds and sixpence, is to be the most
miserable of men; whereas, to have an income of only twenty pounds, and
spend but nineteen pounds and sixpence is to be the happiest of mortals.
Many of my readers may say, "we understand this: this is economy, and we
know economy is wealth; we know we can't eat our cake and keep it also."
Yet I beg to say that perhaps more cases of failure arise from mistakes
on this point than almost any other. The fact is, many people think they
understand economy when they really do not.
I have already reached this but still not rich "When you're finally wealthy, you'll realize that it wasn't what you were seeking in the first place. But that's for another day."
Getting rich is a quasi zero sum game. By definition, only 1-5% of the population can be in the “financial elite.” While this advice piece might be correct, it will be useless for >95% of its readers.
This list of aphorisms is riddled with advice where luck probably plays a dominant role, so the headline is misleading. There are reliable ways of getting rich without needing (much) luck, but they take a long time if you're starting with very little capital. But they are proven, they do work, and they generally involve a lot of saving and investing throughout your primary earning years, in real estate or other stable assets. They generally don't involve serial entrepreneurship, which this article seems to advocate.
Getting rich is often a result of providing value to other people and so can be a positive for society. You can always give the spare to charity if you want.
I got rich in Silicon Valley from my equity compensation. I bounced around various companies and startups. Two of them were successful and had public offerings. Of those two, one was spectacularly successful.
Sure, luck played a role. But my pure grit and tenacity also played a role. Taking on hard bugs and solving them played a role: I solved a lot of hard bugs that others couldn't solve. Spending Saturday afternoons at the library reading books on topics like software program management and phase locked loops played a role. Having some talent at hiring and managing people helped. Spending my teenage years writing clever little programs in 6502 assembly language on my Commodore 64 instead of smoking weed and partying helped. Having a strong knack for math and computer science helped. Living simply and reinvesting my profits helped.
In my 20s, I couldn't understand why people at my same wealth level in Silicon Valley were often driving $100K cars and engaging in other types of ostentatious spending displays. I was constantly surprised by the people making lots of money who didn't really have any clue how money works. Wall Street has its own game to separate you from your wealth, and they'll do it if you don't understand how the Warren Buffets of the world value equities and read balance sheets.
You have to get up and out and play the game to win. If you play, you'll lose a lot of games. When you lose, don't lose the lesson. There is a secret message embedded in every failure. Figure out the message, get up and go at it again. Sometimes, you'll suffer a humiliating failure a few more times before you get the lesson.
Of course, someone who is too lazy to go play the game will ascribe success to "luck." And the person who just can't "get" the secret messages embedded in their failures will ascribe success to "luck."
I've been dirt poor. For a whole year at the university, I slept on a camping pad on the floor because I couldn't even afford a real mattress, much less a bed. I've also been middle class, and now I'm rich. It's clear that being rich is better than being middle class, and being middle class is better than being poor, but being rich has its own problems. Even if you don't advertise your wealth, malicious actors smell it on you and try to separate you from it. Rich people sometimes say things like, "My only real friends are the ones who were my friends before I got rich." I get that mindset completely.
Money lubricates a lot of things in life, but it doesn't completely solve very many issues. The one single thing that I appreciate the most about money is that I'm no longer obliged to sell my own time just to survive. I spent my afternoon today, a weekday, taking a walk in the park, meeting a friend for a late lunch, going to the gym and then reading a book. In my previous life, I would have been stuck at work and wouldn't have done any of those things.
I read through the list and agreed with every item. Some are very broad, and I'd add some caveats if I were discussing them in detail. The one that made me think the hardest was "Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games." That's true, but sizing people up and figuring out what "game" they're playing is part of being successful.
The percentage of people that had access to a Commodore 64 was relatively small, so a person had a high chance of not having access. That means it was lucky to have had access.
The percentage of people that are killed in a car accident is relatively small, so a person who is not killed in a car accident doesn't need to be particularly lucky to avoid being killed in a car accident.
Yes, luck is a factor in everything, but the role that luck plays in everything is not the same.
Assuming you believe that genetics plays a role in our skills and traits, then luck also plays a role. A person has no control over their genetics.
A person also has no control over the economic status of their parents, the area of the world they are born in, whether they receive proper nutrition as a child, what kind of education they get as a child, and an infinite number of other factors that contribute to whether they will end up rich or poor.
Yes, hard work is important to becoming wealthy in most cases, but there are so many factors that people dismiss when they say that luck has a small role.
Then what isn't luck? Everyone reading this thread is lucky, since they have access to the internet, and were lucky enough not to be hit by a car and killed before in their lives.
Yes, that is quite obviously luck. People don't get to choose your parents. You were lucky enough to have parents that taught you about investing at an early age.
Hard work and luck are both parts of success. Humans just have a tendency to downplay the luck aspect.
I'm not saying it's all luck. Hard work is important. Luck is also important. It's pointless to argue over which is more important in my opinion.
However, a lot of successful people (including the person I was originally responding to) downplay the role that luck plays and exaggerate the role that hard work plays.
Not saying you aren't talented or hardworking but this is strictly survivorship bias. I would bet that there are other people who worked even harder than you but didn't get rich due to something outside their control. It also seems like you are smart enough to not endlessly chase even more and be happy with the largesse you already have so kudos to you for that.
> I read through the list and agreed with every item.
I'm not particularly wealthy, but I agree. And you have my sincere congratulations on your success, which I, unlike others, recognize as the product of your hard work and risk-taking.
Sorry, but it's a bit rich when people who literally won the lottery call for hard work. The reality is you got lucky. There were probably many people who worked harder than you and saved more than you who will never enjoy anything close to your success.
And that's okay.
All wealth is based on luck or coercion (really, just coercion). This is trivially true if you understand what wealth is: claims on the labor-time of others. Since most people aren't in the habit of freely giving away such claims in order to accumulate such claims you either need a gun or you need to stumble upon something that other people need so much they'll surrender their labor-time -- literally they're time on earth -- for. I say stumble upon because presumably when you were born you didn't "own" much of anything. (And yes, to complete the analysis, the only thing that prevents others from simply seizing whatever it is you've lucked into is somebody else has guns and stops them in return for a cut. It's coercion all the way down.)
And that's okay. While capitalism doesn't alter the essential nature of wealth -- it's not magic -- it does strongly incentivize those with wealth to try and accumulate more wealth. Capital demands to be put to work immediately, always, 24/7, to acquire more capital.
If you understand this then it should be clear the article is silly and there are and there will always be only three ways to get "rich" (which again, just means to accumulate labor claims).
1. Be lucky.
2. Get some guns, some men, and declare that you are now rich. (This is what people mean when they say sovereigns can "print money" or that sovereigns cannot default. The wealth of sovereigns is structurally inherent. As Keynes might say, a sovereign is wealth, that is, it is labor claims.)
3. Go to work for those who are already wealthy and make their lives better, that is literally make "the rich richer."
The article rambles and uses a lot of silly words to say #3. And while the author may mention society understand that whatever you want to do "for society" will require you begging for capital from rich guys like the author.
When I explain this to bold young college students who are very hesitant to go to work for the "Man" (in finance or law) it always leaves them very depressed. To lighten the mood a bit I will say this: not all capital is subject to free, anonymous exchange (the logic of the market). This is the key insight of Marx: there are relations that can produce wealth (labor claims) that do not require price signals. Which is just a fancy of way of saying you can actually make yourself quite wealthy without buying/selling anything. (Unless you're one of those insane Randroids who believe when a mother sings to her newborn baby she is somehow profiting from the "exchange.") The interesting thing about what Marxists would call such "non-reified" capital is that it can have tremendous though hard to measure effects and it can operate at global scale eg open source software and many world religions.
Wouldn't you agree that the harder someone works, the greater their chance of becoming rich?
You seem to argue that the OP has absolutely no claim to the wealth that he has worked for and his preferable situation is due entirely to luck. This is of course preposterous and easily disproved, so I'm curious to know what your answer to this question is.
Assuming your answer is, "no, not entirely" then my follow up question would be, do you believe that his situation is due _mostly_ to luck, and only marginally to his hard work? This is a more interesting question and one I would be interested in discussing assuming it's your take on the matter.
There's a couple key points that I think help bridge the gap of understanding between these two points of view about Hard Work vs Luck (and I'll completely ignore things like existing advantages of birth/wealth, and coercion, as those points are really separate):
1) Hard Work is enabling factor for "luck", just like being born under the right circumstances is. Hard work does pay off, and thus it's valid to say "hard work helped me get here". What we're calling "luck" isn't a purely random roll of the dice. Working hard tilts the odds of good luck much further in your favor.
2) While Hard Work enables better statistical odds at the luck game, you have to be careful to understand that it's still just statistical odds in a luck game, and that structurally there can only be a small percentage of people who "win". If every single person worked equally (very) hard, the luck advantage of working hard would diminish to zero, and only luck (remember we're ignore other factors like wealth/coercion) would remain to differentiate the small percentage of winners. Because wealth is pretty much defined as having more than someone else (or else pricing/inflation will just readjust everyone back to the norm), not everyone can have more than the average. This is what blows a hole in the idea that anyone can work hard in order to achieve success. Anyone can work hard to increase their odds, but the odds are small without other advantages, and many may work hard and still fail.
I was mostly arguing against the OP's very odd view that someone's position is due entirely to luck and not just partially. You and I seem to agree that it is a proportion, whether or not we agree what that proportion happens to be. But the OP seems to believe that nothing is due to free will and everything is due to luck.
>Wouldn't you agree that the harder someone works, the greater their chance of becoming rich?
No.
>You seem to argue that the OP has absolutely no claim to the wealth that he has worked for and his preferable situation is due entirely to luck.
Well let's start from the base. Do you think someone has a claim to wealth that they earned entirely due to luck?
>This is of course preposterous and easily disproved, so I'm curious to know what your answer to this question is.
I'm not sure how it's easily disproved. Again from the base. It's easily seen that a one day old baby's station in life is entirely due to luck. Two days old, two months old, two years old, all the same, all luck. At some point though we begin taking luck, say being born to hard-working parents who helped you develop a hard-work ethic, and label it a personal achievement. In this way we successfully launder privilege into "merit."
>Assuming your answer is, "no, not entirely" then my follow up question would be, do you believe that his situation is due _mostly_ to luck, and only marginally to his hard work? This is a more interesting question and one I would be interested in discussing assuming it's your take on the matter.
I actually think his situation is due entirely to luck.
Well now I'm curious about what your views on free will are.
> Do you think someone has a claim to wealth that they earned entirely due to luck?
First off, this is a difficult question to answer because it seems yours and my definitions of "luck" are not the same. Or perhaps they are the same but we view the surrounding context and their individual manifestations as dissimilar.
I would say it depends on the situation. For example, If I'm walking through the parking lot and by chance (luck) find a $20 bill on the ground, am I deserving of my new found wealth? On a good day, I might turn it in to the nearest department store and hope it finds its way back to its original owner. If I'm feeling more cynical (or, arguably, realistic) I would just keep it.
Am I deserving of this wealth? I didn't really work for it, so I would argue, "no, not really." But then again I wouldn't really fault myself (or anyone else) for keeping it either.
On the other hand, let us consider two farmers who live near one another. They are twin brothers and received the same upbringing. One of the farmers tends his lands diligently while the other is concerned with other aspects of life and only does the bare minimum to survive. As you might expect, over time the first farmer prospers due to the hard work he has put in to cultivate his lands while the second farmer stagnates because he has prioritized other matters. They both understood the benefits of tending to land diligently from their shared upbringing, but they made different decisions for whatever reason.
Essentially, I'm asking you to consider these two farmers "in a vacuum" such that their wealth is due entirely to their own actions and not to any outside forces. Absolutely nothing left to chance, or "luck." By my definition of the word at least.
So, is your definition of luck different from mine such that you would argue the first farmer's success is still due to luck, or am I missing something else?
And thanks for the conversation, I find your views fascinating even if I don't share them.
I know this is three days later but I just saw your comment and wanted to leave a reply (though it may never be seen.)
>Essentially, I'm asking you to consider these two farmers "in a vacuum" such that their wealth is due entirely to their own actions and not to any outside forces. Absolutely nothing left to chance, or "luck." By my definition of the word at least.
I don't think it's enough to refute this by simply saying that 'people don't live in a vacuum' as others might. I think it's actually impossible to conceive of a person 'in a vacuum.' I reject this sort of individualistic view of a person in favor of a more communitarian view - which is to say a person is made up of their social attachments and environment as much as those social attachments and environments are made up of individuals. It's impossible to conceive of a person in a vacuum for the same reason it's impossible to conceive of a cat that's a dog. A 'person in a vacuum' just isn't a person.
>They are twin brothers and received the same upbringing. One of the farmers tends his lands diligently while the other is concerned with other aspects of life and only does the bare minimum to survive. As you might expect, over time the first farmer prospers due to the hard work he has put in to cultivate his lands while the second farmer stagnates because he has prioritized other matters. They both understood the benefits of tending to land diligently from their shared upbringing, but they made different decisions for whatever reason.
You seem to posit that they are exactly the same in upbringing and everything but then behave differently. What do you believe is the source of this differing behavior? If we traced it back far enough would we eventually reach a point where it becomes apparent that this difference originated in 'a thing' which the farmers had no control over? I believe so.
But I think the whole point is that we don’t live in a vacuum.
The farmers for example. Since the first farmer has healthy crops, insects would probably be more attracted to his lands, therefore a higher chance of his crops being tainted or destroyed. He could put all that work in and end up no better off than the second farmer due to circumstances entirely out of his control.
Not to say he shouldn’t put that work in, but there is always an element of luck in anything that “works out” for you or me.
I wasn't careful enough with my language. Yes, someone can work harder and see diminishing returns anyway. My dad installed carpet for the majority of his adult life. I would characterize that as more difficult work than most, but he never attained very much wealth.
Still, in a (very particular) vacuum, I would argue that statement holds water, even if it doesn't in reality.
This ignores most poor people who are too busy trying to feed their family in the short term and our society's inability to properly give them a safety net for them to learn new skills/ get ahead in life.
Honestly, I think that's true for a lot of VCs. They have to sound like they are smart and know the secrets of the industry so that entrepreneurs reach out to them (and many times on extremely skewed terms). But truth be told, a lot of VCs have been incredibly lucky with 1-2 bets they've made.
Just a couple days ago was an article on front page of HN by Sam Altman about how to run a company, whereas he himself has had one failed startup. Softbank exists more or less because of a huuuuge bet on Alibaba which paid off. In the end, I doubt any of these "How to" articles hold up the test of perseverence.
But survivor bias aside, it's still interesting to see how VCs think, and helps gain insight into their inner monologue.
Not all VCs are created equal. We work for quite a few of them and the range of knowledge, connections, personalities, founder friendliness and ethics is quite broad. As a result of that there are VCs that you really don't want to have anything to do with and VCs that it is a pleasure to work with and that go to bat for the founders of the portfolio companies they've invested in with great regularity.
I don't have any particular experience with VCs, but personality-wise the guys at SUSA(Susa? Capitalisation is annoying when it comes to logo vs Twitter) and Homebrew are miles ahead of 99% of the others I've seen, so my first impression is to agree with you.
I don’t have experience to say beyond seed stage, but at seed stage, especially given the explosion in funds, this is most definitely true. Even as a YC startup, VC interactions I’ve had have ranged from “I could give two shits about you” to “I’m a mensch even when I have to say no”. Founders remember who belongs in what camp and talk to each other about such things a lot.
Interesting. I wonder, is there something like a Yelp/Glassdoor for VCs? A site where people can post about their experiences with VCs, how they were helpful (Like you mentioned, some VC may be great for retail tech while others for moonshot ventures), where they were unhelpful. How hands on or hands off the approach they took was, how much they look at investing as a culture of growth rather than a business (both are valid options IMHO) and so on.
Would really help entrepreneurs make the right choice when it comes to approaching investors right. Of course, this can further boil up or down to investment firms rather than individual investors, based on seried of funding etc.
We do this informally for EU VCs, we have a pretty good idea which start-up will match which VC in our network but we have to be careful to maintain our independence so VCs do not start to feel we are pressuring them to make an investment or that we are seen as a 'stamp of approval'.
("we", me and the team of people that I work with).
Because it is a very small world and we're not the (by far) the strongest party in it a negative advice is something I would not do unless there is public evidence that a VC can not be trusted or is unethical.
I once heard PG say something like "It's crazy, but the YC startups that succeeded are the ones who followed our advice. The ones who failed, didn't".
He's never claimed there's anything particularly brilliant about his advice. Indeed he's joked that his presence in office hours sessions could be replaced by a 3-line shell script. "Make something people want", "talk to your users", "spend less money than you make"... that's pretty much it.
I think most of the really good VCs would be similarly modest about the value of their advice.
The principles are really simple and easy to convey.
What YC tries to predict is whether the founders are capable of making something people want, not whether the product they pitch in the application process is already something people want.
They are just looking for founders who can follow the build+release+test+repeat cycle as quickly and effectively as possible, and their claim is that if founders can do that really well in a large, valuable market, they will find success.
Similarly, you can make money really quickly if you mess around with grey market goods, shady affiliate networking products, "health" products, etc. But every so often some of those guys get busted.
That is the premise behind those points and the ones raised by the op: Luck is never part of the equation, just ask your average rich guy from rich families.
What’s your definition of rich here? Because earlier you said “born in a rich country”, so I guess about a billion of us qualify?
Assuming you meant something else, most rich people in America are first generation rich. Of course, growing up here in a middle class or upper middle class household didn’t hurt, but they’re not rich because someone dumped $5mm in their bank account when they turned 18.
OP could have started by defining it instead of doing spaghetti moves with a bunch of confused definitions. I am assuming he meant "wealth" for "rich" (as he ended the article with a joyful play on that).
If you are trying to "get rich" in comparison to your local community as in "Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep", then being born in a rich country will give a huge leverage to acquiring those assets in poorer countries or any other acquisition/opportunistic startegy that eventually increases your passive income.
If you are trying to "get rich" in comparison to the whole world, as in comparison to the 7.6 billion of us you could just get any job because living in a "rich" country automatically makes you an outlier and monetizing your time is enough to make you "rich" by any other poorer country standards.
If you are trying to "get rich" in comparison to the richest persons on the whole world. Well, good luck with that in a poor country ;)
Replace "strategy" with "explanation" if you prefer.
If you're starting from a position where you're rich, and you're trying to explain why, luck is a valid explanation.
If you're starting from a position where you're not rich, and you want to get rich, you're best concentrating on the things you can control rather than complaining about things you can't control.
It's a hilarious book but it's not too thick on good advice, the most actionable bits boil down to 'be ruthless'.
Felix Dennis rode a wave and rode it well, there are more Felix Dennises in the world (every European country had their own it seems), so it was more a matter of place and time than anything in particular about Felix Dennis.
I found his take on being wealthy very refreshing, for that reason alone it is a good book to read. But do pirate it, wasting money on books with titles such as 'How to get rich' is counter to the writers wishes ;)
Isn't this the tenth how-to-get-rich post today? I guess that's fairly standard, and I ignore them, but they're getting votes today.
I'm a little surprised that —since every other thread on HN is about hacking your diet/wardrobe/matress to counteract the crushing depression you get from your job— nobody is putting one and one together.
There is more to life than money.
I don't want to sound too hippy but there is. There is value in relaxing with friends and taking time out to raise your family, and living with clean air outside a big, machine-like-city.
The struggle to become rich is an immense burden with its own serious costs. You might make it, but I'd suggest you ignore "aspirational" money posts on HN and learn to be happy with what you have. Just strive to be good at what you do. It's not the American Dream™ but you'll get a hell of a lot more from life.
No one said that money was the most important thing. You added that.
Then you proceeded to tell everyone else how they should live their lives.
Understanding how to effectively generate wealth, build companies, etc is something that has certain advantages. For instance, this will allow for more time to appreciate the other things in life.
Warren Buffett spends most of his day reading, which he loves to do, for example.
He’ll be donating 99% of his wealth.
Your life is your choices but, quite honestly, you’re adding noise to the conversation that people were trying to have.
Buffet?! Sure. He's both from an influential family and was a prodigy for business. He's also been very lucky. If you think you can course-correct your life to rival a Buffet just by the power of these self-help articles, you're a fantasist.
I'm not telling anybody to do anything. Just opining my view that outright happiness is not a hard state to reach. One can be content with very little. When your goal in life is "more", fulfilling it is nigh on impossible.
So you're just pointing out that one of the richest men on the planet is happy?
What were you saying about noise?
FWIW, I was trying to make a legitimate counterpoint here and the votes suggest it wasn't as unwelcome as you suggest, but whatever. Thanks for your contribution.
What is it with HN that so often people comment without having read the full article? And then complain about other HN threads while doing so.. Sigh ..
Space is a concept from math which basically means dimensions. It's just a fancy way of saying "there are more career opportunities now because of internet".
This was funny! I recognize these conflicting views. The first is the view that math is a fundamental force governing nature. The second is that math is simply a way to describe the forces of nature. I tend to agree with the second view and are often dragged into arguments which has the roots in this difference of viewpoints.
I'm not sure if either of your arguments applies in this case; the argument I was trying to make is that the colloquial usage of the word "space" predates the mathematical usage, so claiming that the word "space" in a colloquial context comes from the mathematical context is inaccurate. (This is a purely historical argument and not one of philosophy.)
If you were to take a random room of people. Reset all of their incomes to square one. In a few years the same people that were rich to start would emerge "rich" again.
Some people are willing to be disciplined and motivated to change. While others talk without the walk.
Donald Trump is rich because his dad left him an inheritance. His businesses were fraught with turmoil. If he just kept the money in an index fund, he would be richer than he was today.
So reset everything to square one, and there's one person who's not going to make it on their wits.
Need more examples? How about Bill Gates? No doubt, a very smart guy. But he would not be where he is today without that fateful meeting with IBM, where MS negotiated providing DOS for the PC. How did he get that meeting? His mom worked for the United Way, and knew IBM's CEO.
Then consider everything else that led to that day. He grew up in a fairly well-off family which could afford to send him to MIT. He was in the right place at the right time when Gary Killdall dropped the ball. He had the benefit of excellent timing, as the window for establishing OS dominance on the PC was very small. I'm sure Gates would even tell you - his success is, in large part, a product of luck.
What I'm saying is, to become rich, it's not enough to be talented. You have to get the right opportunities and seize those opportunities when they come to you. In my experience, there are more people with talent then there are opportunities. So that random room of people is always going to turn out different.
There's a lot of great advice in that post, but too much to digest in one pass.
The author is right-- anyone can become rich, if they simply spend less than they earn and invest it for the long run. It's been proven over and over again.
Man, I disagree with about everything from this opinion. And I hate that I have this urge to write out the point-to-point rebuking:
+ "Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep." : Really? Are we playing the "let's redefine everything so that it works out like I say" game now?
+ "You’re not going to get rich renting out your time." : the top 1% of Americans are dominated with doctors and lawyers who, guess what, rent out their time.
+ "You will get rich by giving society what it wants but does not yet know how to get." : The concept of "first-mover disadvantage" should really solve this. Look, Palm produced a smartphone, and Apple also produces smartphone; Apple make trillions, Palm died. The society clearly want smartphone. Why did Apple succeed but Palm failed?
+ "Specific knowledge is knowledge that you cannot be trained for. If society can train you, it can train someone else, and replace you." : please see above for doctors and lawyers, whom are all trained by the society. Plus, if other humans (i.e. the society) can't train you, who does? God sends angels to you?
+ "Specific knowledge is found by pursuing your genuine curiosity and passion rather than whatever is hot right now." : And if you are interested in, says, building rafts (or horse-drawn carriage, or any of these things), you will get rich so fast that your stomach will starve.
+ "Building specific knowledge will feel like play to you but will look like work to others." : sigh. Right.
+ "The most accountable people have singular, public, and risky brands: Oprah, Trump, Kanye, Elon." : Ummm. One, Trump brand and accountability have adverse relationship. Two, some of the most rewarded people on earth don't do business in their names. Bill Gates used Microsoft, in case you forget. Corporations exist for a reason.
+ "Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true." : Yes, and the best vendors always win! And Windows is the greatest OS on earth! And Facebook is the best social network! You get my sarcasm.
So, conclusion?
My father taught me this, which I believe to be true: small wealth is by hardwork, great wealth is by Heaven. If you want to be affluent, be industrious at work, be acceptable to society, be prudent in finance; and you will eventually get there. If you want to get richie rich rich, well, pray (plus all of the things for little wealth). This kind of "I get lucky now I will give stupid advices" things really should go away.
Change jobs every 6 months or less, insist on a raise between each one. I'm earning just shy of 300k now. I don't see it stopping in the next decade either.
There is an inverse relationship between salary and the number of jobs available at that rate. I think you will find it harder to continue raising your income just by job hopping. You’re going to need to demonstrate you can deliver increasingly higher value to organizations in order to demand higher wages.
I agree with the strategy that hopping jobs results in faster income increase than staying put. I'm just saying that in my experience, there is a cap on how much you can make in any salaried job unless you are a very rare person. You may find it difficult to continue to raise your income by job hopping. You may need to think about selling value rather than time to exceed your current pay.
I remember reading someone's observation about web dev/tech but using human flight as an example. In the 70's, people thought because they went from the Wright brothers to the moon within 66 years, by the year 2000 we'd have Mach 5 passenger planes and trips to other planets. But, what do we have nowadays? Passenger jumbo jet speeds have remained steady since.. the 70's/80's?
What he's trying to say is that the growth will usually reach a plateau, but people think it'll be exponential. IMO, Mr. Millionaire upthread is living the Bubble 2.0 demand for tech workers, and thinks the bubble will go on and he's going to the stratosphere...
>What he's trying to say is that the growth will usually reach a plateau, but people think it'll be exponential. IMO, Mr. Millionaire upthread is living the Bubble 2.0 demand for tech workers, and thinks the bubble will go on and he's going to the stratosphere...
And when it pops I will only have the million dollars I've earned before 30. Woe is me.
Life is there for the taking. Stop making up excuses why being poor in a box is good for you.
Given that I'm already negotiating for a 15% increase in my current job and shortlisted for 6 other positions I'd say I have plenty of room left to move around.
You are worth what you are paid.
I have had a job where the only thing I had to do was fill in a spreadsheet to keep the product manager happy because the CEO had some stupid ideas about tracking employee productivity. I was happy to trade $60,000 and 3 months for something not more taxing than a Sudoku puzzle. Market inefficiencies are everywhere, it's just that most employees never find them since they stay in one place for far too long.
When I see a resume of someone who has had 8 jobs in 3 years I immediately think "liability". You won't deeply learn anything. You won't be able to think long term. I won't be able to give you an important project because you likely won't be around by the time it hits market and needs to be shepherded to success.
Your job hopping is only going to work for so long. If I were you I would focus on building up your staying power in order to make meaningful changes that businesses need from their higher level employees.
Whatever they hire me for. Currently I'm doing network architecture for a telco, the project is pure vanity and will end in tears. But everyone is happy because until it does it will make them seem like they know what they are doing, which they don't.
Reality: there are millions of people out there doing exactly the things listed. And they are not rich.
BTW, does anyone really think Oprah, Trump, Kanye, and Elon are "accountable?"
And then:
"Don't partner with cynics and pessimists. Their beliefs are self-fulfilling."
I see this a lot in these sorts of "pro tips", and it always makes me check to see if my pocket is being picked. Somebody needs to point out the holes in your grand scheme. But then, I'm a bitter, albeit moderately wealthy, cynic.
Money is dumb but it is a necessity to move forward in life. Without it we can't provide for our family, possibly not have a family or have the basic every day needs. We become bound to this society that is so focused on money and status that we forget about the little things. Little things like memories, friends who are always there, pride in something you've created, or things you feel at your core. Those things are true wealth and not "having assets that earn while you sleep".
Being poor reminds me of PTSD honestly, though. You get caught up with wealth and status because every new decision brings you back to a past where your existence was chaotic. It's like the chaos of the past maps onto how you interpret the present. Reminders are everywhere in culture, and I think people get caught up in these games of dominance because the experience of poverty is traumatizing. Even if everything in your life is perfect and functioning optimally, there's still that fear - can't delete memories, and honestly, I think that's the primary motivator for those who hoard wealth in a completely unreasonable, counterproductive fashion. Tragedy and anger, these things push us in directions we do not have perfect control over. These things are hard to heal from, but it can be done.
- Earn as much as you can from your own work. Take a 2nd job, change to a higher paying job, ask for more responsibility and a raise at your current job, go back to school for a more lucrative degree, ...
- Spend much less than you earn. Economize, share an apartment, buy an inexpensive car, shop at Trader Joe's and Costco, ....
- Learn how to invest. This is really important. The most deliberate and highest probability of ultimate success is likely mutual funds. Individual stocks can goose it, but should only a small portion of your wealth, as they start to bring a luck factor into the mix ...
- Protect your investments. Health insurance is really a must in the US, might be a must elsewhere. Work for a company that offers health insurance. Car insurance is a must. Other insurance is probably wise.
- Be patient. The compounding effect of investing takes a long time, but once it gets rolling, it's pretty much unstoppable.