There are two issues that I think get talked about together, whenever the idea of self-driving cars comes up: self-driving cars themselves, and then self-driving cars as part of an Uber-like pooled vehicle business model.
I think that self driving cars as a technology are definitely on the horizon, and if they don't hit any major roadblocks (literally or figuratively...), some level of self-driving capabilities might become mandatory in the next couple of decades. It makes driving on freeways much safer, and also allows for types of interchanges that aren't possible with human drivers.
But the argument you sometimes hear tossed around, that self-driving cars will lead to Uber-like services displacing all or nearly all private car ownership... that strikes me as much more speculative. There are cultural-psychological aspects to car ownership, and I'm not convinced that the value proposition could be made sufficiently strong to cause people to not want to own their own car, while still creating a viable business for the pooling company, in a suburban or exurban (to say nothing of truly rural) area.
Owning a car in a dense city is a pain in the ass and a huge expense; owning a car in a rural area is basically a necessity to live as an independent adult. It'll be a lot harder to get people in that second group to switch to vehicle pooling than the people who probably detest having a car in the first place for all the expense and inconvenience it causes.
There are two issues that I think get talked about together, whenever the idea of self-driving cars comes up: self-driving cars themselves, and then self-driving cars as part of an Uber-like pooled vehicle business model.
I think that self driving cars as a technology are definitely on the horizon, and if they don't hit any major roadblocks (literally or figuratively...), some level of self-driving capabilities might become mandatory in the next couple of decades. It makes driving on freeways much safer, and also allows for types of interchanges that aren't possible with human drivers.
But the argument you sometimes hear tossed around, that self-driving cars will lead to Uber-like services displacing all or nearly all private car ownership... that strikes me as much more speculative. There are cultural-psychological aspects to car ownership, and I'm not convinced that the value proposition could be made sufficiently strong to cause people to not want to own their own car, while still creating a viable business for the pooling company, in a suburban or exurban (to say nothing of truly rural) area.
Owning a car in a dense city is a pain in the ass and a huge expense; owning a car in a rural area is basically a necessity to live as an independent adult. It'll be a lot harder to get people in that second group to switch to vehicle pooling than the people who probably detest having a car in the first place for all the expense and inconvenience it causes.