If the changeover relied on consumer purchases to replace the fleet, I would agree.

But I don't think it does. If (when?) you can hail a self-driving cab for a lower per-mile fee than the cost of gas+insurance+car payment, Uber (Tesla?) can (will?) put electrics on the street as fast as they can be financed (manufactured?).

People will let their vehicles rust if it's cheaper to take a cab. No major consumer purchases required, just cultural diffusion at the speed of super bowl ads.