6 years takes us to 2022. That gives 8+ years for people to replace the oil demand creating things that can go away like cars, ships, heaters, aeroplanes, generators etc.
And general inertia of change. Think more recently how long people held onto blackberries after the glass front smartphone took off. Few would now argue the merits of the keyboard over the full screen (not trying to trigger those of you left!) but a fair chunk held to the traditional view for many years. The same will be for the above machines. From this the timeline seems reasonable for me.
If the changeover relied on consumer purchases to replace the fleet, I would agree.
But I don't think it does. If (when?) you can hail a self-driving cab for a lower per-mile fee than the cost of gas+insurance+car payment, Uber (Tesla?) can (will?) put electrics on the street as fast as they can be financed (manufactured?).
People will let their vehicles rust if it's cheaper to take a cab. No major consumer purchases required, just cultural diffusion at the speed of super bowl ads.
And general inertia of change. Think more recently how long people held onto blackberries after the glass front smartphone took off. Few would now argue the merits of the keyboard over the full screen (not trying to trigger those of you left!) but a fair chunk held to the traditional view for many years. The same will be for the above machines. From this the timeline seems reasonable for me.