"Our new PM was a remainer" - but, she was eurosceptic her entire career, the very first thing she said was literally "Brexit means Brexit", she has repeatedly confirmed it's going to happen and she has set up an entirely new ministry to ensure it does. Meanwhile the EU is so impatient for it to happen they are demanding it starts immediately. There is no way back.
With respect to "it's difficult to leave without screwing the economy", that seems hard to justify given the number of countries that are not in the EU and yet which are not "screwed".
>With respect to "it's difficult to leave without screwing the economy", that seems hard to justify given the number of countries that are not in the EU and yet which are not "screwed".
Never having been in the EU is a totally different situation to being in the EU and leaving. No country has ever done that.
I may appear to be in denial but look at the two closest comparison countries that voted to not be in the EU, Switzerland and Norway. The voters said out but there were huge practical problems with being out so they ended up with basically being in the EU but not completely. That's what I think the most likely outcome will be - something like those countries, still with free trade and movement but a fudge where the politicians can say look we're independent.
Incidentally on the denial thing I voted remain but bet leave would win at the bookies. I'm predicting a Norway solution as the most likely bet rather than my preference.
The Norway solution was already ruled out by the PM.
I agree that there will end up being some compromise, eventually: one that involves free trade without freedom of movement a la CETA. The question is only how long it takes to get there. The EU is starting to realise that leaving is in fact thinkable, and is caving on issues that might upset local populations. Eventually it will realise that blocking European co-operation and blaming it on a country that wants to sign deals isn't going to fly.
> confirmed it's going to happen and she has set up an entirely new ministry to ensure it does.
There is a counter argument that says the new ministry is set up exactly to ensure that brexit fails to happen whilst the government "tried it's best and gave full resources". It is also a convenient way to completely destroy Boris for good.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: And to that end, I recommend that we set up an interdepartmental committee with fairly broad terms of reference so that at the end of the day we'll be in the position to think through the various implications and arrive at a decision based on long-term considerations rather than rush prematurely into precipitate and possibly ill-conceived action which might well have unforeseen repercussions.
It's kind of prophetic that Hacker goes from Minister to PM on the back of some anti-EU stuff whipped up by the tabloids. Of course it's basically BS and nothing much changes with the EU. We'll see how it works out for May.
> With respect to "it's difficult to leave without screwing the economy", that seems hard to justify given the number of countries that are not in the EU and yet which are not "screwed".
I think being outside is not what hurts. Leaving hurts. Business loves stability and brexit is anything but.
Of course, but you have to take into account the strength of feeling over this issue in the UK. The referendum was the most acrimonious vote in the UK in my lifetime. Turnout was very high. The majority of people who normally vote for May's Tory party supported Brexit. There is a staunchly anti-EU party (UKIP) waiting in the wings to pick up large numbers of votes if the Tories don't follow through. UKIP already got 13% of the popular vote at the last election, despite the first-past-the-post system (they only got 0.2% of the MPs).
It's not just general public sentiment that constrain's May. Many of May's own back bench MPs care far more about making Brexit happen than they do about keeping the Tories in government (the number of single-issue anti-eu diehard Tory MPs is greater than the Tories majority in parliament). They will bring down her government if she doesn't move towards Brexit.
That is assuming that the media, backed by recent and coming economic figures won't scaremonger and break away all the other popular arguments against Brexit, as 'no foreigners' wasn't the only argument. Not to mention that procrastination and fearful reports by the government will also help. The longer it takes the easier it will be to kill it.
Of course, all of this assumes May's intention to not exit.
"Our new PM was a remainer" - but, she was eurosceptic her entire career, the very first thing she said was literally "Brexit means Brexit", she has repeatedly confirmed it's going to happen and she has set up an entirely new ministry to ensure it does. Meanwhile the EU is so impatient for it to happen they are demanding it starts immediately. There is no way back.
With respect to "it's difficult to leave without screwing the economy", that seems hard to justify given the number of countries that are not in the EU and yet which are not "screwed".