Why not upgrade to a 5 or 5S now though? The 4S is quite a ways behind, and with the 5 and even the 5S being out for so long, you could get some great deals.
It all comes down to AppleCare: I don't want to own an aftermarket phone that isn't covered for damage by anything other than my own wallet. The 5/5S can only remain a viable option for me if they're sold directly by Apple & allow me to purchase AppleCare. Anything less means I take on the risk of having to keep repairing/replacing the phone every time it breaks. Unfortunately, this happens far too often.
I think your math is a bit off. A refurb or MNVO 5S costs about $200 right now. AppleCare costs $99 + $79/replacement up to two on top of the phone. So, if Apple sold you a new 5S for $250, you'd pay $349 for it, $428 if you had to replace it, and $507 if you had to replace it twice. Replacing once sounds nearly breakeven until you factor that the price of a refurb 5S will continue to fall but the deductible on your replacement will stay fixed.
Two breaks would still justify AppleCare, but the odds are pretty low.
I understand if you just greatly value getting service from Apple and want to pay for that privilege, but if you won't buy a 5S only because it's risky, then you should reconsider.
The last 5S I've owned got replaced five (5) times. I'm not joking! Every apple device I've owned since my first PowerBook G4 in 2003 completely justified the purchase of AppleCare.
Wow, okay! You are in a special class; I think my math does apply to the normal curve. :) Isn't that more replacements than AppleCare allows for one policy?
I wasn't aware of a specific limit. Those were very legit "QA lapses" (to quote one Apple genius). I had three iPhone screens separate from the housing despite never having been dropped, and two other iPhones lost all cellular connectivity. I diligently collected data points and such until another genius told me to LOL forget it, and replaced the phone.
I could be wrong but I believe Apple is still selling the 5S's (can't check now as the apple store is down). Could also likely buy through carrier and purchase applecare through them as well.
