I think your math is a bit off. A refurb or MNVO 5S costs about $200 right now. AppleCare costs $99 + $79/replacement up to two on top of the phone. So, if Apple sold you a new 5S for $250, you'd pay $349 for it, $428 if you had to replace it, and $507 if you had to replace it twice. Replacing once sounds nearly breakeven until you factor that the price of a refurb 5S will continue to fall but the deductible on your replacement will stay fixed.
Two breaks would still justify AppleCare, but the odds are pretty low.
I understand if you just greatly value getting service from Apple and want to pay for that privilege, but if you won't buy a 5S only because it's risky, then you should reconsider.
The last 5S I've owned got replaced five (5) times. I'm not joking! Every apple device I've owned since my first PowerBook G4 in 2003 completely justified the purchase of AppleCare.
Wow, okay! You are in a special class; I think my math does apply to the normal curve. :) Isn't that more replacements than AppleCare allows for one policy?
I wasn't aware of a specific limit. Those were very legit "QA lapses" (to quote one Apple genius). I had three iPhone screens separate from the housing despite never having been dropped, and two other iPhones lost all cellular connectivity. I diligently collected data points and such until another genius told me to LOL forget it, and replaced the phone.
Two breaks would still justify AppleCare, but the odds are pretty low.
I understand if you just greatly value getting service from Apple and want to pay for that privilege, but if you won't buy a 5S only because it's risky, then you should reconsider.