I've been solidly in the "actual value is being created by a lot of companies, mainly because tech (via startups) is destroying existing monopolies", but that's less true of some.
I think SF itself is probably a startup bubble and will correct, but it might just be a "go back to how things were a year ago", not a complete implosion. And the least bad way for this to happen is by sub-sector, like happened with all the shitty social buying apps a few years ago.
I did YC back in S11 and people were telling us "Winter is coming" even then. Markets are cyclical but it doesn't make so much sense to stress out about it.
It makes a great deal of sense to stress about it when you have a lot of long-term debt used to purchase your real estate assets, and have some control over the lease terms you offer. If you think the end of the boom part of the cycle is 6 months away, you want to lock people into the longest-term leases possible, so that they expire when the market is again, if not strong, at least not weak. If you think the end of the boom part of the cycle is 4 years away, you want to offer the shortest-term leases the tenant will accept, because they will then be forced to renew at a higher rate.
This is very similar to the dry-bulk market. It should be instructive to look at how companies like DryShips and Diana Shipping handled the enormous spike in the Baltic Dry Index several years ago, how they've fared since, and how they've managed their businesses afterward. The cyclical nature of markets cannot necessarily be controlled, but it can be harnessed to outperform one's peers, and if you are a REIT portfolio manager or smaller property manager, your job depends on doing just that.
