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someone has to protect our poor farmers, everyone loves farmers.



food shortage leads to revolution.

The real problem here is we tried to turn a desert in to our national bread basket.


>The real problem here is we tried to turn a desert in to our national bread basket.

or may be that our national bread basket is turning into a desert? One needs 3 components - soil, sun and water. We're loosing the 3rd component :

http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_27070897/california-dr...

"The last three years of drought were the most severe that California has experienced in at least 1,200 years"

Everybody can just only guess why...

Edit: to the "jff"'s response below - a "guess" by the Stanford http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/september/drought-climate...


> Everybody can just only guess why...

NOAA says it isn't because of climate change, if that's what you're implying.


NOAA says it isn't because of climate change, if that's what you're implying.

Should the word "anthropogenic" be in that sentence somewhere? Getting less water is indeed a change in the climate by the very definitions of climate and change.


Not when it's just random chance. An X year drought by definition is supposed to happen every X years.


What's the dividing line between a changing climate and a very highly randomly varying unchanging climate?

Also, minor nit, "X year event" doesn't mean the event should happen every X years, but that over a span Y >> X, the event happens Y / X times.


Yes I meant on average.

The dividing line is simple; it's when the average changes. You can't objectively measure this, but you can get certainty bounds by using many data points. The smaller the change, the more data points you need.

A single huge drought in a place prone to droughts is not a very strong data point by itself. Unless it literally doesn't end, we'll need many more years of rain measurements to know if the baseline has changed.

If you go global it's a lot easier to take independent measurements and show climate change exists at all. But to ask whether the level of rain in California is from climate change simply can't be answered as quickly.


Actually, an X-year event means that an event of equal or greater size has a 1 out of X chance of occurring per year which is distinctly different from for Y >> X => Y/X occurrences.

For example, a 100 year flood has a probability of occurring (or being exceeded) of 1% per year which is distinctly different from "a 100 year flood is expected once every 100 years".

The law of large numbers implies your statement but that isn't what the term X-year event means.


We also seem to be losing the first component (soil). At least we're going to have plenty of sunlight left.


I used to think this way, but it's a very fertile desert. But the use of the land shouldn't be propped up by externalaties paid for by everyone else.

The water should just be auctioned off each year. Proceeds going to find new sources of water.



We have yet to see an almond shortage turn into a revolution though.


Don't you mean "almond and pistachio shortage leads to revolution"?


Unnecessary and inefficient foods are farmed in California. There is a huge margin for improvement in land and water use before we come close to food shortage.


I believe that if there were a way to measure agricultural productivity besides profits, arguing in favor of less environmentally damaging agriculture would be much easier. I had to endure Atrazine polluted tap water (Panama) for my birthday last year for the first time, (officially) due to negligence of a sugarcane producing corporation. Suddenly we are faced with the difficult dilemma of having less gin and sugar or polluting the drinking water of 5% of the country.


which shortage of foods grown in this desert would cause the revolution exactly? I dont see a lot of blood being spilled over the price of pistachios.




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