I don't think this future is implausible, but I think the MOOCs will not be able to be free. There are costs associated with creating a good online course, and those costs have to be deferred somehow.
Perhaps these MOOC developers will be able to attract patrons who will cover the large up-front cost, and ads could cover the ongoing support, but one way or another they won't be completely free.
As for whether recent highschool graduates will be able to complete a traditional college degree worth of MOOC courses, it will depend on how much they actually help those graduates get jobs. We went to college on the insistance of our parents that it would improve our quality of life above theirs, and the promises from colleges that a degree would make our careers.
For some of us, that was true. For others (particularly in recent years), not so much. MOOC badges will have to offer more than just promises to justify the time and money we put into them.
You are right that MOOCs can't be free forever. In particular, right now MOOCs are subsidized by tenure: it's often tenured profs who can get a course release who develop MOOCs, and they do so because they're interested in education, rather than from a profit motive per se. Most universities swallow the cost because it's good for marketing at this point. This won't be true in the future.
Many universities are looking to develop their own branded online programs, which may or may not look like MOOCs, so that they can have an additional revenue stream. This pulls them away from platforms like Coursera. I am curious what will happen as the ed companies' interests diverge from those of the university.
Right now, Coursera offers certificates for degrees that cost money. They also use this to create capstones, consisting of 4 to 5 MOOCs and a final project.
I believe there was someone who completed all the necessary open courseware for an MIT "degree" (obviously substituting courses when not available) but can't seem to find the link.
It's not clear to me how you prove that you did the work for the course. As far as I can tell with Coursera, all it takes is for you to input the correct answers in order to pass (i.e. you may have found the answers online, had a friend help you etc). Identity is still unsolved.
Coursera often changes the numbers/units for math problems and switch up problems on every attempt. You can cheat at a 4-year physical college, but it's harder. If you are trying to cheat on courses, you probably shouldn't be in college :)
There are costs assorted with creating good software as well but the community have found ways to still make FOSS a viable reality. Is there any reason the same methods can't be modified for MOOCs?
There effectively is a model today where you can take the course for free but you pay for a "verified certificate." The problem (as is often the case with freemium) is that it's not clear what the value of a verified certificate is for the vast majority of people. There may be scenarios such as employers wanting to see proof of continuing education but they're the minority.
Most FOSS software is supported by corporations who use that software, and contribute their changes back.
If we parallel this to MOOCs - basically companies interested in accepting MOOC coursework would want to produce & manage the MOOC content, or hire it out.
Perhaps these MOOC developers will be able to attract patrons who will cover the large up-front cost, and ads could cover the ongoing support, but one way or another they won't be completely free.
As for whether recent highschool graduates will be able to complete a traditional college degree worth of MOOC courses, it will depend on how much they actually help those graduates get jobs. We went to college on the insistance of our parents that it would improve our quality of life above theirs, and the promises from colleges that a degree would make our careers.
For some of us, that was true. For others (particularly in recent years), not so much. MOOC badges will have to offer more than just promises to justify the time and money we put into them.