1 - I don't have 100K lying around to allocate to charity bets.
2 - I'm not an early stage investor.
3 - Perhaps because of 1 and 2, I'm not in Sam's position to take the bet.
But Sam has laid 3 very aggressive goals. His position is that the market is significantly undervaluing all 3 stages of investment. The odds are that at least one of these will be wrong. (And it won't take a bubble to prove that - all it will take is just 10% returns in one of the 3 phases of investing rather than 15+%.) If it were a cash bet, it would be worth taking just as a hedge.
Net - any true naysayer should take Sam up on it, as it's a good bet for even folks who think we are in for just modestly good times.
Well, there's an additional tax on the negative bet: if you lose, you lose $100k. If you win, you get no money.
The first question for this bet is "How much would I pay to make Sam donate $100k to a charity of my choosing." Would you pay $10k to make that happen? $1k? $50k? $100k?
If Sam donating $100k to charity is only worth $20k to you, and you think that Sam is 80% likely to lose his bet, then the bet has an expected -$4k utility to you.
EDIT: Sorry, my model above does assume that paying $100k to a charity of Sam's choice has 0 utility to you. If, for example, you strongly expect to donate $100k+ to charity in 2020 anyway and aren't very choosy about which charity, then obviously the bet is a pretty sure winner to you.
I'll put 3 caveats:
1 - I don't have 100K lying around to allocate to charity bets.
2 - I'm not an early stage investor.
3 - Perhaps because of 1 and 2, I'm not in Sam's position to take the bet.
But Sam has laid 3 very aggressive goals. His position is that the market is significantly undervaluing all 3 stages of investment. The odds are that at least one of these will be wrong. (And it won't take a bubble to prove that - all it will take is just 10% returns in one of the 3 phases of investing rather than 15+%.) If it were a cash bet, it would be worth taking just as a hedge.
Net - any true naysayer should take Sam up on it, as it's a good bet for even folks who think we are in for just modestly good times.