Yes and No. I was referring to the Chechen conflicts as well as the mini-war between Georgia and the South Ossetian separatists. Russia's involvement in the region specifically. But yes, you are correct in that there is no open warfare there... currently.
12 dead is in no way near to war. From a plethora of potential regions to reference [CAR, San Pedro Sula in Honduras, Myanmar, Sonora and Chihuahua in Mexico, Nigeria, Mali, Chad, Niger, Libya, Punjabi region, Western Province of Pakistan, Colombia] i am surprised you picked Paris.
Regardless, you make my point: everything is cool until it is not. So who stands to gain by making shit fall apart?
My money is on a country overstocked with weapon systems, an abundance of ultra nationalists, and a near mono-economy.