The price bubbled to $1200 because Mt. Gox was buying bitcoin for months leading up to that point. This is very well documented. It fell because it was such a large bubble, at the time, that there was no sense letting it do anything except deflate.
Now we're reaching a point that might be a somewhat reasonable valuation for the currency. But my stance here is that even this "low" valuation is extraordinarily precarious. If someone with tens of thousands of coins decides to pull out of the market, they will trigger others to follow suit. Similarly, if someone else decides to buy tens of thousands of bitcoins in order to trigger another bubble, that's quite possible too. Remember, 10,000 coins is "only" ~$10M, which isn't much when compared to the billions that a lot of funds manage. And if someone spaces a large number of buys over a long timescale, it'd be easy to give the impression that the entire bitcoin scene is experiencing healthy, sustained growth, even though that growth is mostly artificial.
This is doubly a problem when you hold a privileged position like a bitcoin exchange, where you can use your position to either manipulate the markets directly or to be privy to info that others don't have. Which, by the way, is totally legal. Even if it's not legal in the US, it's legal in other countries. As far as I know, no one knows who's behind the BTC-e exchange. They're very popular, and they can use that position to do whatever kind of manipulation they want. And since the price at every exchange affects every other exchange (arbitrage), there's no way to avoid being manipulated.
In an unregulated market, you, as one of the multitudes, can't win. Others will always have access to information that you don't, such a whether the growth you're seeing is artificial. You can't win unless everybody wins. And when it comes to BTC, that outcome is far from certain. Especially when people are trying to prey off you.
Now we're reaching a point that might be a somewhat reasonable valuation for the currency. But my stance here is that even this "low" valuation is extraordinarily precarious. If someone with tens of thousands of coins decides to pull out of the market, they will trigger others to follow suit. Similarly, if someone else decides to buy tens of thousands of bitcoins in order to trigger another bubble, that's quite possible too. Remember, 10,000 coins is "only" ~$10M, which isn't much when compared to the billions that a lot of funds manage. And if someone spaces a large number of buys over a long timescale, it'd be easy to give the impression that the entire bitcoin scene is experiencing healthy, sustained growth, even though that growth is mostly artificial.
This is doubly a problem when you hold a privileged position like a bitcoin exchange, where you can use your position to either manipulate the markets directly or to be privy to info that others don't have. Which, by the way, is totally legal. Even if it's not legal in the US, it's legal in other countries. As far as I know, no one knows who's behind the BTC-e exchange. They're very popular, and they can use that position to do whatever kind of manipulation they want. And since the price at every exchange affects every other exchange (arbitrage), there's no way to avoid being manipulated.
In an unregulated market, you, as one of the multitudes, can't win. Others will always have access to information that you don't, such a whether the growth you're seeing is artificial. You can't win unless everybody wins. And when it comes to BTC, that outcome is far from certain. Especially when people are trying to prey off you.