I worked with an extremely smart and productive programmer who only worked M-F 7-4, and never did any programming outside of work. Any company would be lucky to have him.
Ok, so you are no good at statistics (your anecdote means very little), why should we trust you to judge a programmers ability.
You know how hard it is to actually measure how productive a programmer is, he could be writing absolute crap, that just gets the job done. The projects he has could be very simple.
And someone smart might just be someone who can switch a computer on, to a lot of people.