I thin the Red Mars trilogy might be closer, corps and countries fighting over who can go and who is paid not to go
The selection process would be pretty draconian at the start and for quite some time. Can you imagine the protests over genetic and medical screening that would preclude a great many from ever being considered?
I don't think enough people are going to go to give the average person any real chance of getting there. Even if we send a million people that is still 0.014% of the population. I think it's more likely that we send far fewer people and let the population grow for mars-born children.
Transportation to mars is incredibly expensive. Even with reusable rockets refueling on mars (and that would be quite the accomplishment) it would still be incredible expensive to send 1,000,000 people.
The selection process would be pretty draconian at the start and for quite some time. Can you imagine the protests over genetic and medical screening that would preclude a great many from ever being considered?