> For the no campaign there was relief: a spate of
> authoritative polls in the final days of the campaign had
> said the vote was on a knife edge, bringing Yes Scotland
> within touching distance of victory after a dramatic surge
> in support.
Did anyone actually believe the odds were close? I've been following the odds at the major betting exchanges for the last few weeks. I am not aware of any large exchange or bookmaker offering decimal odds lower than 3.00 at any point during that period. For the last few days it's typically been between 3.50 and 4.50. If anyone actually believed that the outcome of the referendum was "on a knife edge", they should have placed some very large bets on a "Yes" outcome.
I agree, though as in a real market, the betting odds are quite sentiment driven. Maybe more so.
Many more people were betting "yes" than "no" (see oddschecker). This tended to skew the market towards a higher "yes" probability. At least one high-street bookie said the same thing. They said that they had their books setup effectively gave them a bet on "no".
This means the betting markets were optimistic on "yes". "Yes" was never that likely.
What are these "major betting exchanges"? People often refer them but I've no clue where they go to find them. Google/Bing is turning up funny links as well.
