> Obviously the answer was MP3s, but I think they might have missed the boat there...
The problem was that it was too close to their current bubble at the time. These are the kind of things that large businesses try to artificially separate out so that they can maximize profit. Why bring in a new technology now when I can wait until later and make more money in the interim?
I don't know if that's entirely true - it's tough to tell without including 'illegal' dowloads in this chart, which is equally difficult to accurately measure against the RIAAs sales data.
However, it is very interesting to not how Vinyl, Cassettes and CDs all dovetail into each other nicely. I would be willing to bet that the rise of mp3 downloads and the decline of CDs would dovetail equally as well.
The problem was, I think, the mp3 wasn't a media format invented by/for the music industry.
You can't include 'illegal' downloads in there. Something that is free doesn't have the same market pressures as something that costs money.
If I download music illegally, I can download GBs upon GBs of music which would cost me thousands of dollars were I to purchase it. What if I don't have those thousands of dollars? It's not like you can say that I would have bought all of those albums if it was impossible to pirate and then add the thousands of dollars to 'lost CD/Legal Download Service sales.'
No doubt. I don't disagree with that, as old as the argument is, but it would be interesting nonetheless to see how the rise of downloads dovetails with the decline of the CD format. If it's an even flow from CD to mp3, as it appeared to be with vinyl>cassette, then cassette>cd, or if it's disproportionate. It would actually go towards supporting or disproving your very argument.
However, I don't think there will ever be any trustworthy comparison like this, as the number of downloaded tracks was never reliably tracked in a manner that would be comparable to the RIAA unit sales data. Even if you could estimate the number of tracks downloaded, it would end up including things the RIAA doesn't include, like mashups, indy tracks, concert bootlegs, simpson quotes, etc.
To continue that train of thought it would be interesting to see a similar data visualization of consumption of all entertainment mediums (dvd video,blu ray video,video rentals,video games,video game rentals,etc) including piracy of those mediums as well.
I have a feeling that (other than the 'legal' vs 'illegal arguments) it would be very telling of the way that media consumption habits have trended over the past decade or so.
The problem was that it was too close to their current bubble at the time. These are the kind of things that large businesses try to artificially separate out so that they can maximize profit. Why bring in a new technology now when I can wait until later and make more money in the interim?