> According to the author: - 18% success rate for time founders - 20% success rate after that ... so just trying 5 times should assure 1 success.
Not according to the Binomial theorem. For a success probability of .2 per independent trial and a binary outcome (i.e. success or failure, no intermediate states):
I agree. There are a number of ways this could be true -- a person has more experience, is more likely to succeed in later tries because of being seasoned -- or might even be so discouraged by a first failure that he is then programmed to fail. But to a first approximation, the tries are independent. It only shows the limited applicability of theoretical analyses to real-world events.
Not according to the Binomial theorem. For a success probability of .2 per independent trial and a binary outcome (i.e. success or failure, no intermediate states):
But the probability of success never equals 1.Source: http://arachnoid.com/binomial_probability