Like Joel said, this is largely a product of variance.
Imagine a million monkeys in a coin flipping tournament where only the monkeys that flip heads move forward. Eventually there will be a handfull of uber-successful coin flipping monkeys. You could say, "Wow, look how talented they are" but you'd be overlooking the fact that their success a product of chance.
Luck, I'm sure, was not the only thing--he's no doubt talented. But even if you're flipping a coin that falls 4:1 on heads, you still need to be incredibly lucky never to hit tails in the long run.
The poker players among you know this all too well ;)
Also, the greater the chances you take the greater the payoff. He's taken a lot of huge chances and has been lucky enough to come out ahead... way ahead. I've read that VCs like to choose riskier companies for this very reason--I think Matt Maroon, PG, and others have written about this. Good if you're a VC, maybe not as much if you're the one they're gambling on.
Imagine a million monkeys in a coin flipping tournament where only the monkeys that flip heads move forward. Eventually there will be a handfull of uber-successful coin flipping monkeys. You could say, "Wow, look how talented they are" but you'd be overlooking the fact that their success a product of chance.
Luck, I'm sure, was not the only thing--he's no doubt talented. But even if you're flipping a coin that falls 4:1 on heads, you still need to be incredibly lucky never to hit tails in the long run.
The poker players among you know this all too well ;)
Also, the greater the chances you take the greater the payoff. He's taken a lot of huge chances and has been lucky enough to come out ahead... way ahead. I've read that VCs like to choose riskier companies for this very reason--I think Matt Maroon, PG, and others have written about this. Good if you're a VC, maybe not as much if you're the one they're gambling on.