> "in a full scale war, the consequences are more significant"
The specific point being discussed was a local disaster -- a 9 megaton bomb which was damaged by somebody dropping a tool on it -- not an all-out war scenario.
Which is why I responded the way I did. In that scenario, I don't see any realistic case in which the entire state of Arkansas would be "wiped out". Possibly fallout would have rendered a fraction of the state uninhabitable for several weeks, and possibly some long-term effects would render a smaller fraction of the state uninhabitable for much longer, but the whole state "wiped out" is just sloppy journalism.
No, see the answer from aeturnum: use the online calculator, enable falout. You'll have to zoom out the map: the area of the effects is approximately as big as the state.
I did in fact already run this scenario. The fallout area is large if you set the threshold low enough. But from what I understand, the largest rings do not render the area uninhabitable by any means. Perhaps the smallest inner ring does. Fallout is also generally a short-term effect -- weeks, not decades.
Also be aware that fallout from an underground blast (as in a silo) is going to spread much differently from fallout from an airburst.
Contrary to what you assume, the fallout increases in the underground burst compared to the burst in the air as the surface is reached see: http://fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/effects.htm
I'm not trying to assume. I'm trying to research. I read that page, and several others. From what I understand, the local fallout (ie, within a few mile radius) is much higher in subsurface bursts, but the longer-range fallout is substantially less.
Thus, I am unconvinced by the argument that the longer-range fallout would "wipe out" something the size of Arkansas.
The specific point being discussed was a local disaster -- a 9 megaton bomb which was damaged by somebody dropping a tool on it -- not an all-out war scenario.
Which is why I responded the way I did. In that scenario, I don't see any realistic case in which the entire state of Arkansas would be "wiped out". Possibly fallout would have rendered a fraction of the state uninhabitable for several weeks, and possibly some long-term effects would render a smaller fraction of the state uninhabitable for much longer, but the whole state "wiped out" is just sloppy journalism.