I've been in this hobby for a long time (like since X-10 in the 80s, more Insteon now) and one unwanted trend I see is exploding prices. Inflation has pushed your stereotypical X-10 appliance module from $10 to currently $20. I've been mostly Insteon for a decade or so now, but the venerable X-10 appliance module is a good canary as its been around for decades unchanged. Anyway its off to the races with the new breed, hundreds of bucks for a mere thermostat, etc. The days of your linux box turning your aquarium tank lights on and off in a cron job for $30 total are pretty much coming to an end, although it'll still be possible, much slower and harder to automate and it'll cost $750 and have a phone app that demands access to your contact list, but it'll still sorta work.
Another interesting trend in home automation is abandonment of all legacy tech. Ask someone what came before the arduino in microcontrollers, "uh, nothing, they were the first ever". Ditto the new wave of home automation, the zillionth competitor still positions themselves as the "first". Not too impressed with this trend either. If I'm making fun of this marketing scheme, I'm probably not the only guy in the target market making fun of the trend.
A final interesting industry trend is the conspicuous consumption aspect. Nobody seriously tried to claim an early 80s era X-10 wall wart was a designed thing of beauty to show off to your friends, any more than a circuit breaker or a gas shutoff valve. The new wave is all about the bling as the highest priority. Does look pretty nice.
So that's the four trends I've seen in HA, your observation of extensive partnering agreements, the cost is exploding, every copycat is the first product ever, and appearance is the #1 priority. None of the trends could have been extrapolated from the earliest days in the 80s to 2010 or so.
I suspect interoperability is NOT going to turn out any better for HA than it has for home stereo-TV-dvd-xbox remote controls, or kitchen appliances (try swapping egg beaters between competing portable mixers for a good time, if you have a deep pocketbook)
Otoh, home automation might finally go from being a hobby to something normal people actually can use to make their lives easier. I also dabbled with X10 in the 90s and personally I can't wait for apple to come along and do it right. Needless to say, I completely disagree with your final observation.
"normal people actually can use to make their lives easier"
Normal people don't like capital investment of any sort either monetary or time, and newer technology seems not to change the total investment at all, beyond a modest increase, but only adjust the ratio between the two categories.
There is also the stereotypical UI tradeoff that has existed for decades in computers of "make simple things easy" which is almost always in direct opposition to "make difficult things possible". The tradeoff in the new wave of HA products is dangerous because there is the risk of not gaining traction with the noobs because simple things do not help much, while losing all the experts by making the really productive yet difficult stuff impossible.
From a "do it right" perspective, X-10 done the right way is the decade or so old Insteon system, reliable, 2way, giant address space, fast (or, faster than X-10)... "Home Automation" done the right way seems an undefined problem, and that has to be done before the solution can begin.
On the contrary, most people with the income to do so are in fact delighted to invest in things that simplify their lives and save them time. It's one of the pleasures of the modern era.
Regarding this claim about UI tradeoffs, you clearly do not remember the past seven years. Were I to travel back to 2006 and hand you an iPhone 5, you would think it was a gift from some distant alien civilization. The point being that great design continually defines upward what "make simple things easy" means. It is not diametrically opposed to making the difficult things possible.
I've been in this hobby for a long time (like since X-10 in the 80s, more Insteon now) and one unwanted trend I see is exploding prices. Inflation has pushed your stereotypical X-10 appliance module from $10 to currently $20. I've been mostly Insteon for a decade or so now, but the venerable X-10 appliance module is a good canary as its been around for decades unchanged. Anyway its off to the races with the new breed, hundreds of bucks for a mere thermostat, etc. The days of your linux box turning your aquarium tank lights on and off in a cron job for $30 total are pretty much coming to an end, although it'll still be possible, much slower and harder to automate and it'll cost $750 and have a phone app that demands access to your contact list, but it'll still sorta work.
Another interesting trend in home automation is abandonment of all legacy tech. Ask someone what came before the arduino in microcontrollers, "uh, nothing, they were the first ever". Ditto the new wave of home automation, the zillionth competitor still positions themselves as the "first". Not too impressed with this trend either. If I'm making fun of this marketing scheme, I'm probably not the only guy in the target market making fun of the trend.
A final interesting industry trend is the conspicuous consumption aspect. Nobody seriously tried to claim an early 80s era X-10 wall wart was a designed thing of beauty to show off to your friends, any more than a circuit breaker or a gas shutoff valve. The new wave is all about the bling as the highest priority. Does look pretty nice.
So that's the four trends I've seen in HA, your observation of extensive partnering agreements, the cost is exploding, every copycat is the first product ever, and appearance is the #1 priority. None of the trends could have been extrapolated from the earliest days in the 80s to 2010 or so.
I suspect interoperability is NOT going to turn out any better for HA than it has for home stereo-TV-dvd-xbox remote controls, or kitchen appliances (try swapping egg beaters between competing portable mixers for a good time, if you have a deep pocketbook)