There's much focus on the economic statistics here but I do think the most important component is the political one. China is a one party state run in a totalitarian manner. No totalitarian state has ever lasted for an extended period of time. So China either becomes the 1st to pull that off or has the mother of all lost decades as it transitions to a Western like democracy.
Compared say to democracies in the US/UK/France etc that are 100 or more years old. Trying to think of totalitarian equivalents that have lasted into a country achieving 1st World status?
Every single first world country was either already a democracy before industrialization ("the west"+Turkey), was totalitarian until it was invaded by the US and forced to become democratic (Japan, Germany, Korea, Austria), or is comprised of people who fled a totalitarian nation to found their own democratic nation next door (Taiwan).
