Foreign Affairs[1] published a similar article by the political scientist Samuel Huntington some 25 years ago that makes many similar points, the major difference being that China has replaced Japan as the rising power. Perhaps in 10-15 years, there will be predictions of India as the new number one.
China's demographic time bomb has been predicted for some time. The one-child policy combined with factors like de-ruralization and widespread female infanticide and abortion will make China's population implode dramatically by about 2060 to less than a billion and continue declining through the end of the century[2].
Meanwhile, the U.S. is projected[3] to grow to 400 million by that time [EDIT: by 2060]. With a relatively young population in the industrial world, and a uniquely high immigration population, the U.S. is more like a developing nation than the other industrial powers, demographically speaking. Youth brings new ideas and energy, something that is an essential factor in economic growth.
China's elderly population is growing and will become a huge burden by the middle of the century, which will sap its wealth and probably prevent it from achieving the "number one" status that some are predicting.
Declinism is a cyclical phenomenon in the U.S. that is not without merit given our social and financial problems, but it must be viewed in perspective. The debts are possibly the biggest problem facing the country, but new trends are going to counter that debt and possibly ameliorate it: a coming boom in domestic energy production, a return of manufacturing to the U.S. driven by robotics and 3-D printing technologies, continued software dominance, and a culture of risk taking and open mindedness. I think there's still a lot of upside to the U.S. as a predominant power in the world.
China's demographic time bomb has been predicted for some time. The one-child policy combined with factors like de-ruralization and widespread female infanticide and abortion will make China's population implode dramatically by about 2060 to less than a billion and continue declining through the end of the century[2].
Meanwhile, the U.S. is projected[3] to grow to 400 million by that time [EDIT: by 2060]. With a relatively young population in the industrial world, and a uniquely high immigration population, the U.S. is more like a developing nation than the other industrial powers, demographically speaking. Youth brings new ideas and energy, something that is an essential factor in economic growth.
China's elderly population is growing and will become a huge burden by the middle of the century, which will sap its wealth and probably prevent it from achieving the "number one" status that some are predicting.
Declinism is a cyclical phenomenon in the U.S. that is not without merit given our social and financial problems, but it must be viewed in perspective. The debts are possibly the biggest problem facing the country, but new trends are going to counter that debt and possibly ameliorate it: a coming boom in domestic energy production, a return of manufacturing to the U.S. driven by robotics and 3-D printing technologies, continued software dominance, and a culture of risk taking and open mindedness. I think there's still a lot of upside to the U.S. as a predominant power in the world.
1. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/43988/samuel-p-huntin...
2. http://www.china-profile.com/data/fig_WPP2010_TotPop_Prob.ht...
3. https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/...