The age distribution in China is not that far off from the US[1]. This gives China a similar entitlement expenditure per person as in the US, but without the same level or distribution of income.
US population growth has been outpacing China and Europe for the last decade [2]. If trends stay about the same (no plagues, massive wars, or other major changes in population), the population growth happening today will translate to growth in the work force 20 to 30 years from now. Note: population growth includes immigration, which is something the US experiences more of than China or Europe.
In a nutshell, we expect the Chinese demographics to shift older faster than the US. This raises questions on how China will fund services, entitlements, etc 30 years from now (which is what I imagine Joffe was getting at).
US population growth has been outpacing China and Europe for the last decade [2]. If trends stay about the same (no plagues, massive wars, or other major changes in population), the population growth happening today will translate to growth in the work force 20 to 30 years from now. Note: population growth includes immigration, which is something the US experiences more of than China or Europe.
In a nutshell, we expect the Chinese demographics to shift older faster than the US. This raises questions on how China will fund services, entitlements, etc 30 years from now (which is what I imagine Joffe was getting at).
[1] http://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/united-states.chi...
[2] http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&m...