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What are the factual parts of his position that you actually disagree with? I think he makes some very good points that commentators tend to ignore the inevitable diminishing growth curves and China's impending demographic crisis when talking about China overtaking the U.S.

These are facts:

1) China's population of 20-24 year olds started declining, in absolute numbers, at the beginning of this decade. In order to avert demographic crisis, China will have to do something almost unprecedented at scale: increase population growth rate during a period of increasing living standards and education.

2) The U.S. has double the domestic oil production of China, and that figure is trending up thanks to utilization of shale oil: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/u-s-nears-energy-in.... Both are net oil importers, but China has to figure out how to accommodate explosive growth in demand, while demand in the U.S. is steady.

3) The U.S. still has an overwhelming advantage when it comes to R&D and production of IP. The top universities that engage in cutting-edge fundamental research are still mostly in the U.S.

There is a shade of patriotism to his writings, but it seems to me to be mostly a response to an overly pessimistic narrative on the other side.




1) This is a Legitimate problem for China, but how can we assume that the USA will be the world's superpower, when China does encounter this problem? 2050 is a long way from now. It is likely that another nation will take the role of the #1 economy.

Beyond that, how do we know the environmental impact caused by the industrialization of China will not reduce the average life expectancy (cancer, etc.)?

2) Much of the shale oil extraction has been financed through low interest rates and debt. The cost of extracting many of these oil reserves is more than the worth of the oil itself.

"Just a few of the roadblocks: Independent producers will spend $1.50 drilling this year for every dollar they get back."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-27/dream-of-u-s-oil-in...

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Shells-American-Woes-...

3) This is hard to argue against. I have a few concerns: a) The profits from the R&D and IP are usually concentrated in the hands of large corporations with large patent portfolios. These corporations are global and not beholden to the USA (they can move work aboard). The profits of these corporations are increasing being moved towards the hands of the few.

b) The education system in the USA for the majority, has been far from stellar. There is an opening for another country to surpass the USA in education and academic institutions.

c) As China moves away from an export driven economy, they can take the role of R&D and IP. China is working towards this. I'm not sure if they can succeed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/business/chinas-ambitious-...




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