I set up an experiment to find the people best at guessing Zener cards picked at random.
I surveryed 100 people and the best 5 did notably better than the others. I dubbed these people "clairvoyant". (Spoiler: on retesting, they weren't, but then again I only followed this process once...).
Wisdom of the crowds will work just fine for anything modestly obvious, and it will fail for any black swan events that intelligence actually needs to be aware of - if the predictors even get asked about those.
I set up an experiment to find the people best at guessing Zener cards picked at random.
I surveryed 100 people and the best 5 did notably better than the others. I dubbed these people "clairvoyant". (Spoiler: on retesting, they weren't, but then again I only followed this process once...).
Wisdom of the crowds will work just fine for anything modestly obvious, and it will fail for any black swan events that intelligence actually needs to be aware of - if the predictors even get asked about those.