They may be good at prediction, but who writes their questions?
It's probably much easier to reach a successful prediction when a lot of the framing has already been done for them. If you take the Ukraine question, for example, there's already a lot of intelligence encapsulated, such as the City and Date when the CIA is expecting a Russian invasion. As a post mentions below, the questions may even be phrased/biased towards the right answer.
I wonder if they would be as good at prediction if they didn't have the resources and intelligence of the CIA providing them with the correct focus, prioritization, and framing.
It's probably much easier to reach a successful prediction when a lot of the framing has already been done for them. If you take the Ukraine question, for example, there's already a lot of intelligence encapsulated, such as the City and Date when the CIA is expecting a Russian invasion. As a post mentions below, the questions may even be phrased/biased towards the right answer.
I wonder if they would be as good at prediction if they didn't have the resources and intelligence of the CIA providing them with the correct focus, prioritization, and framing.