I'd say both. We're seeing smaller events than we used to get signup. On the flip side, we're seeing large events signup as well. What is interesting is the variety of events we're now seeing (5Ks included). We're talking to users in these new verticals to see how we can better serve their needs.
Good luck. I do some custom dev work for a event management firm because they could not find something that fit their needs (this was 4 years ago) so I took an interest in the space. It shocked me how broad the reach of Active.com was and how they were pretty much universally despised by everyone who had to use them. Really a sales organization pretending to be an event management system.
I'm impressed by your insight into the industry - A lot of your observations really resonate with my own experiences. I'd love to talk shop some more sometime if possible! My email is pshin45@gmail.com. I tried reaching out to you on Twitter just now as well.