KK is no blogger. I have absolutely no time to read this giant essay while at work.

I did skim enough to have some optimism that Kelly knows what he's talking about. The biggest problem with many pundits is that they overgeneralize Moore's Law. It's not some magical exponential improvement in everything that has a battery attached. It's a statement about a specific technology: silicon transistors.

Kelly seems to have noticed this. He spends some time discussing the fact that magnetic storage is on a different exponential curve.