Most of the patents have been pretty worthless so far. They are mostly standards essential patents that need to be licensed on FRAND terms and in the last 3 years they've had zero enforceable injunctions in their favor.
We don't know what patents google is retaining, so it's unclear whether they're FRAND or truly valuable.
Also, I've followed Nilay's post on several of these patent issues; he's either wrong or he sensationalizes to fit his narrative. I don't think he's very credible, even with a J.D.
We know the quality of the patents from what they've attempted to assert in courts in jurisdictions all over the world. They've not been successful anywhere.
Unless you want to make the leap that they've been holding back all their valuable IP from their patent assertions for some unknown reason, I think it's a pretty safe conclusion.
Why wouldn't they have used their strongest applicable patents? They may have more similar ones and maybe one or two will hold up but do you really think if they had some powerful non-FRAND ones they wouldn't have used them on Apple or Mircrosoft by now?
I don't understand what the point of that would be. Patents only have a limited life and the stronger stronger and broader they are the more they strengthen you negotiating position. Of course there is uncertainty so you don't going in which will survive sufficiently but you don't deliberately pick anything but the best.
I just don't see the scenario were you can't do a licensing deal with your opponent but you agree to use you second rank patents in the lawsuit.
The income stream is tiny or nonexistent. Microsoft recently challenged Moto's demands and ended up paying a royalty for every XBox. The royalty is so small that Google will end up having lost money on the litigation. And reasonable reading of the patents involved show that the royalty was grossly inflated. One of the patents was literally a patent on a number.
The purpose of patents in the smartphone wars is to force your competitors to deliver second rate phones or collect billions in damages. That's what Microsoft and Apple are doing to Android manufacturers. If Google can't retaliate, the patents are worthless in this context.
FRAND patents will never block Microsoft and Apple from using common, obvious functionality on their phones. Therefore they're worthless.
Microsoft have ignored standards and instead patented obvious necessary functionality and user interface elements and mathematical operations. Since prior art and obviousness are a dead letter at the Patent Office and the courts, these are the patents that are useful and valuable.
Essential technology patents based on research and development are worthless. Bounce-to-refresh, search boxes that actually search, long filenames, and other trivial or long known elements that can be forced past exhausted patent examiners are worth everything.
I'd say you hit the nail right on the head, but I find myself imagining this statement more like a compressed air nail gun shooting the nail so far into the wood that it splits; resulting in the entire house falling down.
"Google will retain the vast majority of Motorola’s patents, which we will continue to use to defend the entire Android ecosystem. "
[1] http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/lenovo-to-acquire-mot...