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Alex St John has good details on why using existing epidemiologically formulas don't work: http://www.alexstjohn.com/WP/2014/01/23/forecasting-demise-f...

Example: "The amount of time you spend sick with the flu is constant no matter how many of your friends ALSO contract the flu"




Not if they contract a different flu... then there is a higher chance you'll get that too, and be sick longer.




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