I believe someone already presented this analogy to you, but I'm curious what your response is. Imagine the jar has only two coins, one always heads and one always tails. Choose a coin randomly, then flip it ten times. If you get ten heads, what is the probability that the next flip is heads?
According to the methodology you are advocating, the probability would be 50%, because you are only considering the initial probability of selecting a coin from the jar. But using the methodology I suggested in another comment, you would list out every possible outcome and conclude that there is a 100% chance of getting another heads.
According to the methodology you are advocating, the probability would be 50%, because you are only considering the initial probability of selecting a coin from the jar. But using the methodology I suggested in another comment, you would list out every possible outcome and conclude that there is a 100% chance of getting another heads.