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I love rule-based central banking. It injects predictability and stability into a monetary system and has had fantastic results in the developing world. Cryptocurrencies allow for rule-based monetary systems without the risk of a central bank failing to adhere to its rules prescription. A world of competing crypto currencies would be fascinating - various rule systems being adopted and phased out as (a) critical flaws are discovered, (b) more competitive rules are introduced, or (c) the global economy's needs and hence optimal rules system change.

The downside of discretionless rules-based central banking is it makes learning, and thus evolving, very expensive, requiring a rerooting of the currency and thus monetary system. This is why developed countries do better with discretionary central banks - their economies are too complicated for any known rules systems to work reliably and their central banks trusted enough not to be stupid.

I love the future Bitcoin portends - a world of competing and overlapping rules-based and discretionary monetary systems. I am fairly confident, however, that Bitcoin is not competitive for that world. Still, it's a great introduction and has its social value as a stepping stone.




I would argue that the rules of Bitcoin are not very useful for economic development.

Perhaps the most important lesson in the history of money is that the amount of money needs to flexibly adjust to economic circumstances.

The existing fiat system achieves this, because banks create and destroy money in a decentralized, market-controlled fashion by giving out loans and having them paid back. When a firm invests using bank loans, then the money supply and economic activity increase in lock-step. The result is an economy that was so stable in historical comparison that many economists declared the "macro problem" to be solved (the so-called "Great Moderation"; obviously, 2007 showed that they were hilariously wrong).

Metal standards do not achieve this, and they fail in two ways: The economy can grow faster than the supply of metal; that's the more usual failure mode. But the supply of metal can also grow faster than the economy, which is just as bad (i.e., Spain and the in-flux of metal from America).

Bitcoin can only fail in one of these modes, but since that's the more usual failure mode anyway, it's just as bad as a metal standard.

So that belongs to the normative discussion that Krugman talks about: An economy based on Bitcoin as money is going to suffer through the same problems (gratuitous recessions and mass unemployment) that economies based on metal standards used to suffer from [0]. We already know that, so let's just not go there.

[0] Similarly, economies based on the Euro suffer the same problem via the exact same mechanisms, as do economies where politicians implement unnecessary austerity.




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