Can you clarify #4? I'm actually struggling to see how my programming skills can apply to other jobs in any meaningful way outside of the realm of programming.
I mean, sure, if Microsoft left Seattle today, I could probably find another software company in town to work for. However, I expect at one point in time, machinists could walk into another shop with ease too. There is no reason to believe programmers will always be in high demand.
I think that most "skilled labor" is more specialized than people realize. As a diesel mechanic I could go a lot of places (urban areas were generally out; I would need to live in the suburbs, where there were truck stops). A programmer, on the other hand, has the option to freelance, work from home, even start his own business with limited or no capital. Any company of any decent size probably hires programmers once and a while or even has a few on staff, but it's not really that easy if your specialty is hyperbaric welding (which you can make a small fortune doing, to be fair). No one "bootstraps" a mechanic's shop, too much space and specialized equipment.
But that's still pretty flexible. I'm thinking about all these super industry specific jobs Rowe talks about on his show. Agricultural specialties, oil rig workers, aircraft mechanics and so on. Just not that easy to live close to home and family and do that for a living.
A friend of mine is also a diesel mechanic. He has been freelancing for a couple of local farmers and has used that money to bootstrap his own shop. I think there are actually a lot of parallels with the opportunities programmers have.
As an added bonus, he had to learn about driving trucks, farming, etc. in order to do the job. If mechanical work suddenly disappeared, there are many things he could transition into with ease. I'm still not sure where my programming skills can be used, other than for programming. I suppose I've picked up some general computer skills by way of having to use a computer to do the job, but it seems like everyone has those skills these days.
You do bring up a good point about location though. It would be quite difficult for him to do the same in a heart of a metro area. However, the inverse is true in many ways for programmers. The opportunities for a programmer on the farm are limited compared to someone doing the same in the city.
Rowe didn't mention it, but I think that in addition to a number of people who simply aren't willing to work hard, there are a number of people who aren't willing to move to where the work is. This is another change from 40–50 years ago.
This is a big deal! A documented major shift in US society is that we are no longer moving around as much.
It has been fascinating looking around and seeing the mentality differences between people willing to move (aka adapt) to the world they live in and the jobs they want and the people who are unwilling. IMO, the adaptable people do remarkably better.
I mean, sure, if Microsoft left Seattle today, I could probably find another software company in town to work for. However, I expect at one point in time, machinists could walk into another shop with ease too. There is no reason to believe programmers will always be in high demand.