Abe is one of the worst politicians ever in Japan. Pushing Keynesians economics to the max, going on TV everyweek to show his face in variety programs, and controlling the media to ensure his Abenomics crap get good press, while pushing for an increase of VAT instead of reducing the absurbgovernment spending. Now this. This is about as low as you can get.
I can't believe I find myself defending Abe, but...
> Abe is one of the worst politicians ever in Japan.
Sadly, he isn't. I don't like him, and I wouldn't vote for him, but at least he believes in something beyond perpetuating the political machine. In his own half-assed way, he is recognising Japan's problems, and trying to find a way to work through them, which is more than can be said for most of the political class.
> Pushing Keynesians economics to the max
It's an act of desperation. Sadly it's failing, because Abe hasn't made any real progress on "structural reform" (a.k.a. doing something about the vested interests that have Japan in a chokehold). Without that, all the rest of Abenomics is worthless.
> controlling the media to ensure his Abenomics crap get good press
The mass media were neutered a long time ago. This law is a stick to beat the few remaining trouble-makers around the head with.
> This is about as low as you can get.
If this is the worst you can imagine, you lack imagination.
> In his own half-assed way, he is recognising Japan's problems, and trying to find a way to work through them, which is more than can be said for most of the political class.
By promoting his super-self-ego on the way? If he started to be a little humble about himself I could start to believe what you are trying to say.
> It's an act of desperation.
Especially when it has failed everywhere around the world before (and recently in the US with Super Obama's plan for growth), I just don't understand how one can even believe that such a political stance will save Japan.
> The mass media were neutered a long time ago.
I've been in Japan for several years and numerous prime ministers but this is the first time ever I see major media constantly rooting for a person like Abe. It's just plain propaganda, makes me sick to the stomach. It's like we are in a third world country or something with that kind of level.
> If this is the worst you can imagine
Oh, you haven't seen what Abe is yet to disclose next. He seems to never run out of brilliant ideas. And he likes the nationalistic fiber, which I find despicable on top of everything else he does.
> Oh, you haven't seen what Abe is yet to disclose next. He seems to never run out of brilliant ideas. And he likes the nationalistic fiber, which I find despicable on top of everything else he does.
Being a Japanese citizen myself, I agree to your sentiments to some extent. Yes, he is very keen to satisfy media outlets and spread support for Abenomics. He has been jingoistic, using patriotic rhetoric to amass votes from nationalistic and conservative people alike.
Yet, when it comes to leadership in Japan's political arena, there are hardly any viable candidates. I had high hopes for the former-ruling DPJ, which ended up as three years of abrupt administrations. Voters once believed that DPJ, with its emphasis on national welfare, can improve Japan, but switched back to LDP not because the former party appeared attractive, but merely because it is the least appalling party among the many.
What Japanese voters appear to want is a stable regime while turning a blind eye to their increasing draconian policy that exploits the diplomatic fear against our East Asian neighbors. LDP is currently taking advantage of their most favorable term by passing many legislation to promote their conservative agenda.
It would be overly simplified to remark that Abe is the worst politician. Stock market average soared since he returned as prime minister. Despite the heinous copyright agreements, the TPP ostensibly promotes free trade in other sectors such as agriculture. And we’re approaching the first anniversary of Abe’s leadership - and his regime still looks stable unlike the last months of Fukuda, Aso, Hatoyama, Kan, or Noda. (It would be fair to note that DPJ’s credibility crumbled partly due to the naturally-occured 3.11 earthquake.)
To improve Japanese politics, as a nation we have to invest in the younger generation. Hone better leadership skills so that eventually when they too enter politics, they can influence their colleagues effectively. Make the youth more interested in politics so that whenever a horrible legislation like this act on secrecy appears, a massive portion of voters protest, not unlike when the US Congress tried to pass SOPA/PIPA. Clearly, Japanese politics doesn’t appear have a bright future as of now.
The stock market soaring doesn't mean alot to me. Then again, deflation didn't seem so bad either. Prices going down meant I was able to buy more things at more shops. Now Abenomics is raising prices on everything without raising my wage and I get to feel poor again.
>What Japanese voters appear to want is a stable regime while turning a blind eye to their increasing draconian policy that exploits the diplomatic fear against our East Asian neighbors.
If that's really what's going on China is playing right into Abe's hands.
What makes the situation even worse is that the PRC and Japanese governments are playing into each others hands. The ongoing conflict is a welcome distraction from the fact that both countries have an enormous need for domestic structural reform.
That may be all be true, but I still don't see how it's in China's interest to get into an arms race with Japan. The Japanese have pretty much run the limits of the "construction state", and are looking for public sector projects to employ people.
China, on the other hand, has plenty of private sector jobs for the technically inclined. In the long term a powerful military must be backed by a powerful economy, so to the extent the Chinese are setting aside economic growth to militarize they're delaying future supremacy.
And it especially doesn't make sense for Beijing to goad the Japanese into deploying nukes and long range missiles. There just isn't any scenario where that's beneficial to China's long term interests, and the Japanese public wouldn't tolerate a domestic nuclear weapons capability in the absence of Chinese bullying.
Abe wants an international incident so he can beat the drums of war and convince the people that Japan's self-defence force must be allowed to become a full military force again.
The problem is that Japanese tend to believe too much in politics. When the press interviews people in the streets, it's always "the government should do this, should do that", it's depressing when the mindset is already so much centered around a mother-state with most of the population.
> Stock market average soared since he returned as prime minister.
This is pure bubble. Was there a sudden increase of productivity ? No. Was there a sudden increase of market size for Japanese companies? No. Then, you can easily conclude that the stocks increase is just fluff based on pure air.
> TPP ostensibly promotes free trade in other sectors such as agriculture.
I'd like to see a free market for agriculture instead of paying my apples 3 USD/apple in the store. Sustaining the small producer with his backyard is such a retarded policy in Japan in the first place. It makes food expensive for everyone and removes pressure on farmers to expand, automatize and be more productive. Again, we've seen the effects of such policies elsewhere.
> To improve Japanese politics, as a nation we have to invest in the younger generation.
Sadly the way young people are educated in Japan does not give me much hope: no discussion in classrooms, the cult of the sensei as a center for knowledge, the absence of criticism regarding anything... younger politicians are going to be as incompetent as their predecessors.
> This is pure bubble. Was there a sudden increase of productivity ? No. Was there a sudden increase of market size for Japanese companies? No. Then, you can easily conclude that the stocks increase is just fluff based on pure air.
This doesn't make sense. Stock markets are just as much about confidence of the future as they are about the present (hence the term "investing"). You could also argue that previous stock prices were depressed vs. actual performance.
Because clearly austerity worked for them during the "lost decade". If anything, Japan is a case study against austerity.
Their economy is showing big signs of improvement with the introduction of Abe's new economic directives. If anything, he should be praised for it, not chided. Especially considering how stubborn the Japanese Deit can be. They've gone through 11 different PMs since 2000.
Austerity! Thats a good joke if I ever saw one! The governments before Abe have been endlessly building airports, dams, roads, train lines just like in the old days. And explain me how you end up with 350 percents of GDP of debt if you have a policy of austerity. Japan s budget has been out of balance for 20 years. If you want to support Keynes you will need to find something a lot more convincing.
The parent to your reply has no idea what he/she is talking about. The lost decade has nothing to do with austerity and was not, in any conceivable way, a period of austerity.
It was never claimed to be as such, and nobody has ever mistaken it as such. Original comment is just confused/misinformed.
From my limited knowledge of Japanese politics, Abe seems like a disaster (not that others have been much better).
However, I'd say VAT is a pretty good tax (not too distorting) and Japan in dire need of more government revenue (200% government debt / GDP). More so, the rate is only 10%, where as some north european countries have 20% or 25%.
" Japan’s finance minister on Thursday publicly retracted comments he made this week that appeared to call on Japan’s current conservative government to emulate Hitler’s takeover of prewar Germany. " [1]
Kids need diapers for a few years, which we can basically assume is constant. Meanwhile, lifespans keep increasing (especially in the past average-lifespan, say 80 years), and I assume adult diapers are used for significantly longer per person.
At even a 1:1 birth/death rate, given a long enough average lifespan, I would expect more adult diaper sales unless we find better / permanent fixes for whatever causes the need for adult diapers in the first place.
> I suspect toughing out their demographic problem will prove better in the long run than opening the can of worms that comes with immigration.
Have you looked at Japan's population profile? We're looking at 40 years of real hardship, starting right about now.
I quite agree that, in the long term, Japan should plan for a flat demographic curve, but the two baby booms of the 40s/50s and the 70s, followed by a plunging birth rate, mean the transition is going to be extremely painful.
> And maybe they can institute a program like Israel's to encourage Japanese nationals living overseas to return to Japan.
They did that in the 80s. The outcome did not reflect well on Japan.
In truth, Japan doesn't have an immigration policy. It has a managing foreigners policy, overseen the Ministry of Justice. Naturalization is permitted, but not encouraged. For instance, as a British Citizen, I'd have to officially make myself stateless before I could apply to naturalize.
Japan, as a nation, seriously needs to open its mind a bit if it wants to cope over the next 40 years. Either that, or start building grim, ultra-low-cost institutions to house its old folk.
Yes, immigration is problematic, but together with your second item, something could be worked by bringing the descendants of the Japanese immigrants, for example
HDI Projections
2010: Japan is 8th in the world
2015: Japan is now 5-7th in the world
2025: Japan is now 2nd in the world
2030: Japan is now 1st in the world
Better than your "ill-informed delusional ramblings".
I'd advise you talk about things that you understand, else the comment quality of this place is only going continue slipping. Not sure why this political piece is ranking so high here in the first place. Or has the site degenerated so much so quickly? (haven't checked HN for ages..)
Immigration is also a hot topic in Germany, but they have:
- An influx of immigrants from the EU
- An influx of immigrants (from Eastern Europe) Some legal, some others, well
- Refugee influx (smaller than other countries like Italy and Spain, because of EU regulations)
But they have an easier "learning curve" , and are possibly (slightly) more open to immigration. The Turkish immigrants and their kids still face significant challenges
Well, thank god you are back. No really, it was getting dull without the level of insightful and civilised commentary that you so clearly provide. Please tell us more about your Views. I mean, you must be an absolute genius of our time, otherwise there wouldn't so many folk who think that you have gone completely and utterly batshit, right? I'm sure that is how it works.
Either you are serious or this is snark. Either way, you get a downvote from me.
If you are serious, I'm amazed what a grown person tries to pass for logical thoughts these days.
If you are not, please give it a rest. This isn't reddit.
And the HN Pedantry Patrol shows up, on schedule. Do we really deal with computers so much that we forget that human communications allow for a certain level of artistic license and flexibility?
>... The current administration is slowly trying to create a country that has the ability to fight a war. I’ll continue to fight against this law, because it is the beginning of such a country. —Unemployed, 53, Yoriko W●●●
That is a great reason to vote, and an interesting way to look at secrecy laws.
Sadly, both title and headline seem to be fitting here:
> "The law will punish journalists and whistleblowers who divulge government secrets with up to ten years in prison, and up to five years for those who “instigate leaks” (ask questions about state secrets)."
Then let me say it's very far from any desirable state.. there's always something worse, but that doesn't really help, does it. If all countries in the world were in equally deep shit, the fact that they'd be equal would hardly be sufficient consolation for them being in deep shit.
>> there's always something worse, but that doesn't really help, does it
No, it doesn't. It's really quite sad that the best the people of any nation can hope for, is that their government doesn't rape them too hard. The US is quite a police state already, but hey, at least it's not North-Korea.. yet. It could be in a few years though.
Tyrannical regimes come and go, but that's just business as usual, especially as long as it "can't happen here".. It's almost as if mankind could do better than this.. It's almost as if something was wrong on a global scale.
It's really quite sad that the best the people of any nation can hope for, is that their government doesn't rape them too hard. The US is quite a police state already, but hey, at least it's not North-Korea.
It's pretty interesting why we hear so much about NK but the rhetoric isn't nearly as harsh when hearing about the crazy societies in East Africa. Such flexible moralities at work here.
